Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

May 2023


Brian5671
 Share

Recommended Posts

Tonight will be an unseasonably cool night. Areas well to the north and west of New York City could even experience some light frost. In the City and nearby areas, readings will bottom out in the lower and middle 40s before rising to the lower 60s. A few locations including Bridgeport and White Plains could approach or set new daily record low readings.

Records include:

Bridgeport: 41°, 1983 and 1984
Islip: 38°, 2003
New Haven: 36°, 2003
Newark: 43°, 1955, 1983 and 2003
Poughkeepsie: 30°, 1983
White Plains: 39°, 1983

Readings will warm during the weekend, but some rain is possible. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -11.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.964 today.

On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.462 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.181 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fairly late-in-the-season cold snap with freeze warnings (dark blue) up for the Poconos, Sussex, W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley N of the Tappan Zee (and almost everywhere N/W of there) and frost advisories (light blue) up for Morris, Hunterdon, Warren, and much of the rest of NE PA. Strong high pressure, clear skies and diminishing winds, allowing for strong radiational cooling will send temps plummeting below 32F in the warning areas and near 32F in the advisory areas. Could also possibly see scattered frost in areas like NW Somerset and N Bergen. Bring in any tender vegetation. Fortunately, the red flag warnings for fire risk for much of SNJ/Pine Barrens come down at 8 pm tonight, as winds die down. Apart from some showers on Saturday, our stretch of fantastic weather looks to continue through the end of next week.

mAd8Bof.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be surprised if it fell and nobody mentioned it (unless I missed seeing it) but the NYC record low for May 18th is one of the more recent (1973 41F) and was followed by a daily max of 59 F but the record low maximum was 53F in 1881, the second consecutive low max (17th was 52F and tied in 1915). Those occurred just five and six days after a record high max in 1881 of 93 (May 12) and I think this may be the fastest such turnaround with another similar one in early October of 1881 (88F Sep 28 and record low max 50F min 35F Oct 5th). The opposite sequence (record low max to high max) took only three days in June 1952 (62 22nd, 99 25th). 

Since the 41F on May 18, 1973, the lowest minimum at NYC was 42F in 1976 with 43F in 1983, 2002 (46F 2003). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...