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May 2023


Brian5671
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Tomorrow will be fair and very warm. Highs will generally reach the lower and middle 80s. A few locations could see the mercury rise to the upper 80s.

Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -26.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.746 today.

On May 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.659 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.783 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging    66degs.(57/75) or +3.

Month to date is    59.3[-1.3].       Should be     62.1[+0.7] by the 20th.

Reached 83 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   81-86, wind w. to s., p. sunny to cloudy, 65 tomorrow AM.

64*(65%RH) here at 7am{was 63 at 6am}.   66* at 8am.    67* at 9am.     69* at 10am.      76* at Noon.      79* at 1pm.      77* at 2pm.      82* at 4pm.       Reached 89* at 6:30pm!        80* at 8pm.

 

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53 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the older you get the more colder you feel...

 

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What lol

 Good afternoon Anthony. NYCW is putting to rhyme what is ‘a close to the end’ reality for some of us. My row house is shaded in the front by 80+ year old sycamore’s and the back of the house, is afternoon shaded by a 70 foot oak. Last summer I used only fans and felt it was enough even with the heat and humidity. It wasn’t even a question of frugality. Yet I will turn on the electric fireplace when I sit alone on a moist late spring night. I still love the cold weather. It’s my favorite time to power walk. It keeps my antique engine running to keep the inner sanctums warm. Your avatar is at peak body performance. All parts running and bubbling over with growth. As for myself and perhaps NYCW, we will cover and uncover as needed and stay warm by memory. Be well, as always….

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21 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

my allergies started going absolutely bonkers today idk about anyone else.  nothing this year and today just bam

That surprises me because the tree pollen came out incredibly early this year due to the extemely warm winter. I started feeling my allergies in mid February, the earliest I can ever remember. My allergies were bad in March and April, but now they're calming down. 

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Up to 87 now.  Had lots of high clouds earlier, probably mixed with candian fire smoke.   89 at EWR now with more sun.  Cloudier tomorrow but not much more than showers north of SNJ.  Mothers day (5/14) looks beautiful.  Warmer by Mon (5/15) and more 80s by Tue (5/16) before a sharp front brings a cooler airmass by mid week Wed (517).  Next weekend looks to be next shot of rain Sat (5/20).  Beyond there no real strong departures either way.  Ridging to build into the east by Memorial day.

vis_nj_anim.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1959)
NYC: 93 (1881)
LGA: 88 (1991)

Lows:

 

EWR: 40 (1938)
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 43 (1940)

Historical:

1760: Ben Franklin was the first person to identify nor'easters. In a letter on this date to Alexander Small of London, Franklin described an experience that happened to him in November 1743 when storm clouds in Philadelphia blocked his view of an eclipse. Franklin assumed that the storm had blown in from the northeast because the surface winds at his location were from that direction. He was puzzled to find out later that his brother had viewed the eclipse with no problems and that the storm had arrived in Boston four hours later. The information caused Franklin to surmise correctly that the storm had moved from southwest to northeast. 

 

1886: An estimated F4 tornado touched down in Vermilion County near Armstrong, Illinois, and passed between Alvin and Rossville before moving into Indiana. At least five houses were destroyed, two of which were entirely swept away. Three people were killed. Five other strong tornadoes occurred across Illinois that day: two near Mt. Carroll, one near Odell, one near Jacksonville, and one in Iroquois County.

1934 - A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum)

1971 - Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1997: A towering F1 tornado ripped its way through the middle of Miami, Biscayne Bay, and Miami Beach right after lunch Monday, smashing cars and windows, tossing trees skyward and scaring the dickens out of thousands of people.

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Tomorrow will be fair and still warm. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s. A few locations could reach or exceed 80°. There could be a passing shower.

Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly.

The Pacific Northwest will likely see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia this weekend.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -31.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.973 today.

On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.542 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

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