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May Banter 2023


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT

 

Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023.

Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice.

Discussion:

Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening.

Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when considering how wet it’s already been since the end of April.

Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic

Don't look now but it is snowing at Tahoe with 16 inches on the way!

That snow is POURING down! They are getting annihilated by snow! NEVER MIND ITS MAY 2!!! The Sierra dont care what month it is. It will snow and pile up anyway! Its down to 22 degrees already and the 8200' level is getting destroyed! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

One more item: You guys arent gonna believe this, but I am beginning to associate Spanish tracks with snow and weather in general! LMAO

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On 4/30/2023 at 9:57 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT

 

Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023.

Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice.

Discussion:

Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening.

Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when consider how wet it’s already been since the end of April.

Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

YOU ARE NO wannabe, George BM! You can be MY forecaster anyday! That, is one HELL of a forecast!

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Staggering how absolutely legitimately loaded the AFC is with absolute class football teams.

In no particular order, teams that can legit dream on coming out of the conference to varying degrees - 

KC, Chargers, Jax, Miami, Buffalo, Bengals, Ravens, Jets?

and then legit darkhorse teams that have a puncher's chance

Steelers (I can't count them out), a Sean Peyton rejuvinated Broncos team, Browns

And that's not counting teams that loaded up w/ interesting new QBs to make this conference even more challenging - Colts, Texans and sorta the Titans.

Just...wow. 

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Posting to correct Banter thread. DOAH!!

If anyone was curious about my situation:

My interview went very well last week, in my opinion at least. I have not heard back or know anything yet. I'm sure the selection was made, but it's in someone else's hands now. Finishing up my stretch of mids this morning. Traveling to a wedding this weekend with my wife. I'll report back if I find out anything. 

Have a great day everyone!

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1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

Nats just took 3 of 4 from the Cubbies and have won 3 of their last 4 series.  Hmmm

It will be a miracle if they win more than 70 games. Some young talent. Not a lot but they have bullpen arms. Last year too. A normal looking rebuild with 2 potential studs at the top of rotation.  Be a few more years  more dollars and more pieces. Long way to go.

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32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Someone bought a McLaren P1 that flooded during Ian, and now they’re trying to fix it. It will be interesting to watch.

I'll finish your sentence, you must have been cut off...

 

Someone bought a McLaren P1 that flooded during Ian, and now they’re trying to fix it. It will be interesting to watch... them toss tons of money at it. lol

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5 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll finish your sentence, you must have been cut off...

 

Someone bought a McLaren P1 that flooded during Ian, and now they’re trying to fix it. It will be interesting to watch... them toss tons of money at it. lol

I mean he fixed a crashed 675lt, so I think he can do it. But yes, it will be interesting to watch them toss money at it.

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On 4/30/2023 at 10:57 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT

 

Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023.

Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice.

Discussion:

Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening.

Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when considering how wet it’s already been since the end of April.

Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

I guess what trees were left over from your May blizzard were removed by Bret. It's gonna look like eastern Colorado around here!:lol:

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13 hours ago, Kay said:

even worse picIMG_4293.thumb.JPG.dd7ac5311fecb09c4fd6e0e58c7d2c8c.JPG

We have one (or more) pileated woodpeckers that hang out around our home.  Saw one down at ground level attacking the soft spot at the base of a white pine tree in our front yard.  Got within 20 feet of him as he was digging at something.  Amazing how big they are up close.  And those eyes - wow.  Can often hear him pounding away on a calm evening from the entire neighborhood.  When he gets going on a hollow tree the reverberation echos like a drum.  

Have some smaller woodpeckers also in our area.  They love attacking the cedar trim on our home.  They've done a lot of damage over the years.  Small buggers only about 5 or 6 inches tall, but very effective at what they do.  

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7 hours ago, RDM said:

We have one (or more) pileated woodpeckers that hang out around our home.  Saw one down at ground level attacking the soft spot at the base of a white pine tree in our front yard.  Got within 20 feet of him as he was digging at something.  Amazing how big they are up close.  And those eyes - wow.  Can often hear him pounding away on a calm evening from the entire neighborhood.  When he gets going on a hollow tree the reverberation echos like a drum.  

Have some smaller woodpeckers also in our area.  They love attacking the cedar trim on our home.  They've done a lot of damage over the years.  Small buggers only about 5 or 6 inches tall, but very effective at what they do.  

I have a log home and used to get woodpeckers pecking into my Fascia- going after carpenter bee larvae. Once I learned how to properly eradicate them, no more woodpecker attacks on the house.

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5 hours ago, mattie g said:

We've had one pileated that comes to our front-yard suet feeder on the regular (lots of them in our area). Funny to see this massive bird pecking at a feeder that's about 1/3 its size. :lol:

:lol:

We have a couple of Pileated, they never go to the feeders though. The Red-bellied (greedy) and Downy definitely do though.

Seen a Northern flicker once, but only once so far...

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