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May 2023 General Discussion


Spartman
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5 hours ago, Brian D said:

You can see from the annual values in the charts above to the official record starting in the 1870's how things line up. Warming started in the 20's there. Would be interesting to know the locations of the measurements back then, but Detroit grew pretty fast, with landscape changes, all helped change the temp profile some. Pretty cool historical record.

 

Added the MSP chart for comparison starting in 1820, and it's pretty similar. The 1850's - mid 1870's were a bit cool, and that data is missing with your charts, and the Detroit graph. But prior to the 1850's it was pretty back and forth overall from warmer, and cooler years. Wonder what kicked off those cooler decades? But at the same time during then, a big drought was going on in the western half of the country, although not as bad as centuries before. Very interesting.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/pioneer.html

annual-values-at-detroit.jpeg

MSP 1820 to current temp graph.gif

california_drought_timeline 2.png

Undeniable warming. Probably a mix of natural and man made. The rise from 1860 to the 1930s is staggering, with very little co2 above pre-industrial baseline.

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20 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Hey all. Snow is done, estimate 31-33 inches fell... power still out.  It's going to take me all day to clear snow.  I'm not gonna wait and let it melt because it will settle and refreeze tonight (and make it even tougher to remove), and I need to be able to get out if I have to. Not that it matters much now because I wouldn't be able to go far.

Just some pics from around the house...  most y'all are familiar with these shots... but it is remarkable to see in May.  And this was probably the second best storm of the season and pushes me very close to the 300 inch mark.

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Wow I'm so jealous 

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48 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Low of 37 here this morning and we are already into the low 50s. Should top out around 70 this afternoon. 
 

Can it just stay like this all summer?

Nope lows of 73 and dews in the 70s incoming. Would be hella nice tho

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On 5/2/2023 at 2:13 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Fascinating stuff. Detroit used to have such a lovely summer climate.  While the means aren't quite Yooper-esque, some of the individual months [especially warm-season months] were certainly Yooper-esque, like that 60.5F from August 1836. But it is certainly a northern Michigan climate, comparing very favorably to Traverse City's modern annual mean temperature of 46.9F [mid-19th Century Detroit being about 0.3-0.4F warmer, and Port Huron about 0.6F colder].

That 1836-1838 period was really something else. Just happened to correspond to the beginning of systemized weather records in Detroit too. Allegedly, this was assisted by the 1835 eruption of Cosiguina in Nicaragua, but curiously that eruption wasn't even as impressive as Pinatubo in 1991.

image.thumb.png.a7dac4e2edae0e6dabee5996bd8ee598.png

Port Huron, Michigan:

image.png.9835ba08e84a3072448b5de0525d9b3f.png

Do you by chance have a record for Detroit from 1836-1869? Official obs did not begin for Detroit until Nov 1870, and the NWS lists them as starting in 1874 (not sure whats wrong with 1870-73). 

I wonder where the data was taken in those early days? I wonder if it was taken by a max/min thermometer or like they sometimes did wayyy back, take just 3 obs a day?  As I have mentioned, a book I have details the weather from 1837-1887, and its a fascinating read, but I dont have the actual monthly records (or know where they were taken). They describe summer as having some days with a tropical atmosphere as hot as the equator but that they dont last before pleasant weather kicks in. Many winters are mentioned as "open" winters with little snow, some are noted as harsh winters. It would not surprise me if there were far more droughts/low snow years 200 years ago than there are now in what was a colder/drier climate.

 

Takeaways from those numbers, albeit the small sample size of the early 1800s data and their unknown origin means it should be taken with a big grain of salt:

~winter, BY FAR, is the least warming season and summer is by far the most warming season. (I have been saying this for years and yet every now and then a bogus article will still pop up about winter warming faster than any season in the Great Lakes. This could not be further from the truth)

~May to Oct is the time of year that has warmed the most

~Jan, amazingly, is currently colder at both Detroit and Port Huron than it was in the 1830s-50s. This is the only month that has not warmed some.

 

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14 hours ago, Brian D said:

You can see from the annual values in the charts above to the official record starting in the 1870's how things line up. Warming started in the 20's there. Would be interesting to know the locations of the measurements back then, but Detroit grew pretty fast, with landscape changes, all helped change the temp profile some. Pretty cool historical record.

 

Added the MSP chart for comparison starting in 1820, and it's pretty similar. The 1850's - mid 1870's were a bit cool, and that data is missing with your charts, and the Detroit graph. But prior to the 1850's it was pretty back and forth overall from warmer, and cooler years. Wonder what kicked off those cooler decades? But at the same time during then, a big drought was going on in the western half of the country, although not as bad as centuries before. Very interesting.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/pioneer.html

annual-values-at-detroit.jpeg

MSP 1820 to current temp graph.gif

california_drought_timeline 2.png

Indeed the seasons were VERY back and forth (per what info is available) pre-1850....and again in the 1870s-1880s (now with accurate data to back it up).

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Here's some final totals and the snowfall history map.  

And lastly, a sign that Spring is just around the corner.

MQT:

Four days of heavy rain and snow brought record-breaking precipitation amounts across portions of Upper Michigan between April 29th and May 2nd. Of particular note was the 24-hour snowfall observation of 27" in Herman, MI on May 1st; the greatest 1- day May snowfall east of the Mississippi River in the official U.S. climate record! #906wx

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4 hours ago, madwx said:

Excited to see convection over the next week

It's so weird to see a monster tornado on March 31, chase again four days later, then barely see a storm for another 5 weeks (would have been the entire period if not for April 20).

This is why it was so hard for me to bite on early season setups at this latitude for so long (2/28/17, 3/5/22). After all, if we have trouble getting the juice for good storms up here in May...

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7 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Anytime the dews get above 60 I’m miserable. Not fun at all to work outside in that crap. I’ll take 0 with a wind chill of -20 over summer heat everyday but I’m in the extreme minority. 

I've been thinking recently I'd rather 100F highs than 34F highs every day like many days this winter featured. I've been in different hot climates that had humidity or dry heat around 100 and this is what I'd rather knowing the lifestyle. Not working in it though unless dawn/dusk.

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11 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Here's some final totals and the snowfall history map.  

And lastly, a sign that Spring is just around the corner.

MQT:

Four days of heavy rain and snow brought record-breaking precipitation amounts across portions of Upper Michigan between April 29th and May 2nd. Of particular note was the 24-hour snowfall observation of 27" in Herman, MI on May 1st; the greatest 1- day May snowfall east of the Mississippi River in the official U.S. climate record! #906wx

343977704_612275917598463_3934246864677885026_n.thumb.jpg.1445c38637cd66e5a061587f7460a4b1.jpg

Those totals for qpf are amazing.  Shoveling/plowing that stuff must have been a nightmare.  52" is more in one storm than a majority of the forum received all winter.

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