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Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-23

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0646
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

   Areas affected...parts of central and north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281725Z - 282000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
   afternoon with convective initiation expected between 2-3pm near the
   triple point.  Large to giant hail (1-3 inches in diameter), severe
   gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes are possible over central TX. 
   Large hail and severe gusts are possible farther north over North

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratocumulus field
   near and east of I-35 from San Antonio northward through Waco.  This
   cloud feature is located within a plume of richer low-level moisture
   (ranging from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south) advancing
   north in association with a warm front.  Strong heating is occurring
   near and south of a triple point 35 mi east of Abilene to areas
   southward along and east of a dryline where temperatures are rising
   through the 80s.

   Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs by mid-late
   afternoon near the warm frontal zone with a very unstable airmass
   (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) located from the warm front
   south-southwestward into the Hill Country.  As the cap erodes from
   the early into the mid afternoon, explosive thunderstorm development
   is expected initially near the triple point with storms rapidly
   becoming supercellular.  Large to giant hail is forecast with this
   initial activity with a tornado risk probably developing before
   additional storms and convective coalescence lead to upscale growth
   into the early evening.  The tornado risk will probably lessen upon
   full transition to linear modes.

   Farther north near the Metroplex and areas along I-20, weaker
   buoyancy and less favorable hodographs according to forecast
   soundings, will limit the severe risk to large hail and severe
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Just now, weatherextreme said:

Think it was mentioned from Reeds stream that they have a rain wrapped Tornado or wall cloud

 Bob Pack said he may have caught a glimpse of it but it's definitely rain wrapped. Strong couplet with a CC drop beginning to show up. Likely TOG.

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It looks like the northern supercell has tried to redevelop rotation near Hearne. This might not really lead to anything, as this system seems to be dominated by the linear features. The larger cell by San Antonio could track into town with large hail.

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17 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Noticing #txwx on Twitter and this forum die for Houston or San Antonio weather.  East Coast biased forum, and here, very much DFW based.

That's because there really isn't anyone on here from San Antonio or Houston. You're the only one that posts regularly.

Everyone else is from North Texas.

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