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Central PA Spring 2023


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1 minute ago, Anduril said:

NPR (either last night or this morning its all blurring together) said alot of the fires outside Quebec were caused by lightning. There was a deviation from norm snowfall map posted on Twitter I'll try and dig up that showed all the areas with major fire issues were way below normal snow fall levels. Coincidenceeeeeeeeeeeeee? I think not

 

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Maybe a little less smoke out there this AM. Unfortunately it looks to continue to a lesser degree through much of the weekend. Our chilly spring continues as this morning's lows ranged from the mid to upper 40's across Chester County. This is a good 10 degrees below normal lows for this time of year. Low's tonight should again be in the 40's. Rain chances increase a bit by tomorrow PM and become likely by Sunday night into Monday. Let's all hope we get some rain!
Records for today: High 96 (1914) / Low 40 (1980) / Rain 2.77' (1955)
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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Drought check

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

About 2/3 the state in D1 is fairly large.    If the Monday/Tue front (no model I see has it fully arriving before Monday night now...CMC is Tue) continues to slowly step down, we may be in D1 and above for a while.   1.2-1" will be good for grass but will probably not change the drought parameters too much if it does not rain again for a week or two.  May need that tropical storm to work out for us.  

 

Northeast Drought Summary

Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware and southern New England saw primarily dry weather this week. Temperatures were mostly above normal across the western half of the region, with localized readings ranging from 4 to 6 degrees warmer than normal. Coastal areas tended to be cooler than normal this week, with isolated spots coming in 4 to 6 degrees below normal. More generally over the last few weeks, especially across the western half of the Northeast, streamflows and soil moisture are very low, amid unusually hot temperatures and high evaporative demand for this time of year. As a result, drought and abnormal dryness expanded across much of the western half of the region, especially from western New Jersey through Pennsylvania and New York, as well as northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Philadelphia reported its driest May on record, with only 0.24 inches of rainfall. A few areas that saw higher precipitation amounts this week, including the fringes of the abnormally dry areas in New England, saw localized improvements out of dry conditions.

 

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MU mentioned in his disco last night that the smoke is/will contribute to a lessening of rain chances than what the models see - essentially, the vastly dimmed sunshine due to smoke will also limit instability, and thus a lesser opportunity for showers to fire over the next couple of days, and what does fire will be more scattered and weaker than if the air was clear. 

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16 minutes ago, canderson said:

it is CRAZY bad out. Like, you can't even breathe. 

When does this move? 

If the 12z HRRR is to be believed, it clears out a bit over the next few hours and through the midday but then starts to build back in late this afternoon through the evening.  Then it gradually thins out through Friday and mostly clears up as we head towards the weekend, with some lingering but less dense plumes hanging around in western PA and Ohio.  Developing....

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

If the 12z HRRR is to be believed, it clears out a bit over the next few hours and through the midday but then starts to build back in late this afternoon through the evening.  Then it gradually thins out through Friday and mostly clears up as we head towards the weekend, with some lingering but less dense plumes hanging around in western PA and Ohio.  Developing....

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65 downtown Harrisburg. If we had this smoke plus heat and humidity it would be hell on earth. I also spy with my little eye above an inch of rain forecasted for the combined Sunday/Monday time frame. Someone here needs to drink rainwater and report back on taste.

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58 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

65 downtown Harrisburg. If we had this smoke plus heat and humidity it would be hell on earth. I also spy with my little eye above an inch of rain forecasted for the combined Sunday/Monday time frame. Someone here needs to drink rainwater and report back on taste.

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Maybe we need to bottle up the rain water, call it Carbon Water and sell it on TIkTok

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CMC and GFS both in reverse mode right now for next week.  Pretty worrying....need the rain.    They started 2-3 cycles/runs ago and this is the worst CMC run yet.  Down over an 1" from totals a few runs ago.   This includes Friday as well.    GFS's totals are better and not as extreme of a drop but still under 1". 

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From MU:
 
Here is a full look at this week’s updated Drought Monitor. As the drought worsens, both short-term (agricultural) and long-term (hydrological and ecological) impacts are being and will be felt across PA and MD. We’ll get some rain on Monday, but it won’t be nearly enough..
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:
From MU:
 
Here is a full look at this week’s updated Drought Monitor. As the drought worsens, both short-term (agricultural) and long-term (hydrological and ecological) impacts are being and will be felt across PA and MD. We’ll get some rain on Monday, but it won’t be nearly enough..
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We need that tropical system to be a reality.   The GFS long term is wetter again but feels like winter storms as to watching them dissolve as it gets closer. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

We need that tropical system to be a reality.   The GFS long term is wetter again but feels like winter storms as to watching them dissolve as it gets closer. 

Yes, we do. Elliott's 7 day forecast is uninspiring for rain - scattered storms on Monday otherwise mostly dry outside of a pop up shower tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

If they do, I'll install it. I hate social media but I hate being told what I can't do more.

Come and get it.

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Becareful you're gonna end up like Cartman with a satellite dish popping out your ass

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, we do. Elliott's 7 day forecast is uninspiring for rain - scattered storms on Monday otherwise mostly dry outside of a pop up shower tomorrow. 

I was really hoping for Mon/Tue but as started earlier the trends have not been great.  After that it does seem dry for a week.   Still hoping we all get something tomorrow and maybe even some early stuff from the SE on Sunday. 

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