Central PA Spring 2023

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yikes.  Euro and Canadian not looking any better.  Both with mega donut holes over the LSV.  That May record inching closer with every model run.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yikes.  Euro and Canadian not looking any better.  Both with mega donut holes over the LSV.  That May record inching closer with every model run.

 

 

The gfs would possibly push us out of number one on May 31st but that is a 300+ map so...LOL. 

[Jns2183]

The gfs would possibly push us out of number one on May 31st but that is a 300+ map so...LOL. 

If we come down to a just a few days to claim to record I'll be rooting for the dry to win followed by a wet june

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[Jns2183]

7 of the 10 driest Mays followed up with at least 3.5" of rain in June. What's weird is the combo of dry and bn Temps we have had. That's even more rare.

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[Bubbler86]

Windows open LSV several nights in a row.  Even the warmer areas like MDT go well BN again tonight and again Sat night on the Meso's. 

[Jns2183]

Top 5 driest May
Year: may_pcpn, june_pcpn, may_mean_max, june_mean_max

1902: 0.29, 4.76, 71.8, 78.6
1903: 0.46, 5.63, 74.3, 72.4
1964: 0.51, 4.20, 77.6, 82.4
1939: 0.54, 2.44, 78.8, 83.3
1957: 0.84, 3.38, 73.6, 83.5

2023: 0.15, xxx, 72.5

72.5 is estimated. We sit now at 69.4 which will fall with high of 68 today

Unless we average high temp above 81 for May 21 to 31 we will fall below mean max temp of 74

Avg is 72,4 for May and 81 for June in 127 year history.

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[Jns2183]

All these records I look at 2003 was insane for cold may and June. I just don't remember much from that summer. Anyone have any memories?

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[TheClimateChanger]

50 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

All these records I look at 2003 was insane for cold may and June. I just don't remember much from that summer. Anyone have any memories?

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I recall this event: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/landcane.html

[canderson]

53 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

All these records I look at 2003 was insane for cold may and June. I just don't remember much from that summer. Anyone have any memories?

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I sure do. May 2003 I graduated college and moved to Dallas. The day I moved it was 102 with about an 75 dewpoint and the AC was broken. I ended up moving stuff sans clothes and didn’t care anyone saw me. It was that miserable. 
 

The next day my now wife and I were driving to Austin and had to get out of the ruck into a culvert cause a tornado was coming toward us at night. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Getting ready to go out for dinner - love the California mission architecture here in SLO:

 

Tomorrow we continue south along the coast and will be spending the next 2 nights in Anaheim - going to Angels Stadium for some Saturday night baseball between the Halos and the Twins. 

[mahantango#1]

Quite a bit warmer this morning 44 here 

[Bubbler86]

42 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Quite a bit warmer this morning 44 here 

We made it down to 45.    Still 10BN w/MDT stats.    Someone may make a run for the 30's Sun Am.  More west LSV favored for that one.   Cashtown has been getting back into the W column with 42 this AM. 

[mahantango#1]

Looks like slim pickings in the rain dept tomorrow.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Looks like slim pickings in the rain dept tomorrow.

The meso's all have embedded bursts so maybe someone scores. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The meso's all have embedded bursts so maybe someone scores. 

@Itstrainingtime is on vacay so he better be 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Itstrainingtime is on vacay so he better be 

Embedded bursts in Cali. 

[Bubbler86]

The latest drought map did not change much.  ITT and MJS still in D0.  A little surprised they are not banging down the doors of Harrisburg with the D0.  Would really expect it to expand next week if Saturday fails. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 hours ago, canderson said:

I sure do. May 2003 I graduated college and moved to Dallas. The day I moved it was 102 with about an 75 dewpoint and the AC was broken. I ended up moving stuff sans clothes and didn’t care anyone saw me. It was that miserable. 
 

The next day my now wife and I were driving to Austin and had to get out of the ruck into a culvert cause a tornado was coming toward us at night. 

I graduated from Penn State in 2004 and I recall nothing from that prior summer. Just wanted to add that super useful info 

[canderson]

43 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I graduated from Penn State in 2004 and I recall nothing from that prior summer. Just wanted to add that super useful info 

I recall very little of that previous summer too - but once you graduate it's a slap in the face! 

[sauss06]

i don't recall 2004

[TimB]

2003 and 2004 were both lacking in the heat department in PA. The latter especially. A tied for record-fewest 3 90 degree days in 2004 at MDT, and PIT never got above 87 (a record).

2003 only performed slightly better in the heat department. 6 90 degree days at MDT, and PIT’s max was 88 (tied for 2nd with a couple years in the 1970s).

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

2003 and 2004 were both lacking in the heat department in PA. The latter especially. A tied for record-fewest 3 90 degree days in 2004 at MDT, and PIT never got above 87 (a record).

2003 only performed slightly better in the heat department. 6 90 degree days at MDT, and PIT’s max was 88 (tied for 2nd with a couple years in the 1970s).

Imagine a whole year with no 90's.  Seems like a pipe dream now. (Outside volcanic sky covering issues) 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Imagine a whole year with no 90's.  Seems like a pipe dream now. (Outside volcanic sky covering issues) 

That was two whole years with no 90s or even 89s. Probably impossible now, though I would have also thought it impossible then.

[Wmsptwx]

Just now getting over my nba depression with a couple of lakers losses

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Just now getting over my nba depression with a couple of lakers losses

Lebron missing dunks and layups. 

[Bubbler86]

54 minutes ago, TimB said:

That was two whole years with no 90s or even 89s. Probably impossible now, though I would have also thought it impossible then.

Outside the volcanic ash theory, I would agree at the UHI sites like the hothouse around and near Harrisburg.  Harrisburg is on a run of only one 100+ day in 11 years , if you count this year which is obviously not set yet.  That single 100 temp was right on 100 as well so as unimpressive 100 reading as you can get.   The last time this happened at MDT is 1967-1979.   So, we are setting a lot of yearly average records or near records without actual extreme heat.  That suggests to me that whatever the reason is, it is going to take something extraordinary to not hit 90 at least once at the UHI sites.   I do not think MDT has ever had a year without hitting 90 once.  1907 it was right on 90. 

 

 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Outside the volcanic ash theory, I would agree at the UHI sites like the hothouse around and near Harrisburg.  Harrisburg is on a run of only one 100+ day in 11 years , if you count this year which is obviously not set yet.  That single 100 temp was right on 100 as well so as unimpressive 100 reading as you can get.   The last time this happened at MDT is 1888-1898.   So, we are setting a lot of yearly average records or near records without actual extreme heat.  That suggests to me that whatever the reason is, it is going to take something extraordinary to not hit 90 at least once at the UHI sites. 

 

 

That’s the other thing. Actual extreme heat in western vs. central PA looks different. 97 and above isn’t uncommon at MDT, and in fact recently seems to occur in as many summers as it doesn’t. PIT has only reached 97 in one summer (2012) since 1995.

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, TimB said:

That’s the other thing. Actual extreme heat in western vs. central PA looks different. 97 and above isn’t uncommon at MDT, and in fact recently seems to occur in as many summers as it doesn’t. PIT has only reached 97 in one summer (2012) since 1995.

Quick eye count, MDT has reached 97 or above 14 times since 1995...so very close to 50/50 out of 29 years.   The lack of 100's is the thing IMO.    More humidity?   Different temp taking locations?   Unsure but the mantra of recent times being excessively hot are not all it stacks up to be when looked at it that way...the average is up but not extreme temps. 

[Bubbler86]

Actually I missed another stretch, 1967-1979. 

[Bubbler86]

We always debate heatwaves and whether it is 90 or above, or a certain number of degrees above Norm for a certain number of days...the US EPA defines a heatwave on the MINIMUM temp adjusted for humidity for the day, not the Max.  Here are some stats showing the increase of heat waves over recent time using the criteria below.  So, all of us were wrong using the EPA standards.   Not much to argue with in these stats.   No heat waves in June!

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves

Heat waves can be defined in many different ways. For consistency across the country, Figures 1 and 2 define a heat wave as a period of two or more consecutive days when the daily minimum apparent temperature (the actual temperature adjusted for humidity) in a particular city exceeds the 85^th percentile of historical July and August temperatures (1981–2010) for that city.