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Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23


cheese007
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54 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The cold front already being over the lake is wayyy ahead of schedule and is probably why the risk is a little less now 

Downdraft crapvection front.  Real warm air got tackled on the 5 yard line and couldn’t get back up.  

Getting some flash flooding here.  Entire lawn is a puddle.  SE corner of the state has a chance.  Maybe.

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21 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Downdraft crapvection front.  Real warm air got tackled on the 5 yard line and couldn’t get back up.  

Getting some flash flooding here.  Entire lawn is a puddle.  SE corner of the state has a chance.  Maybe.

To be honest my excitement is low for this one.  Looks like some quick moving heavy rain with embedded thunder.  The very SE counties might do better.

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The radar is kind of a mess, with only 4 severe warnings in the country right now. I'm not used to temp of 77 with dew of 63. It's like insta-summer.  I'm used to getting the first few 70 degree temps out West, not too long after snow, with a dew point of 20 and a view of the snowy mountains. 

The SPC really kind of busted with the Arkansas area yesterday, you know, like 100% bust when you look at this map.

 

day1otlk_v_20230404_1300.gif

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 051526
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1126 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
An updated weather briefing has been published to depict a declining
tornado and hail risk. Squall line that has moved in from the west
has weakened and MUCAPE is declining. Cluster of storms moving
through central IN will further muddy the waters so to speak. So,
have removed the "kitchen sink" from the forecast grids and have
instead offered damaging wind as the primary threat, should
convection become reinvigorated with pockets of clearing noted on
satellite.
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The HRRR was right last night, for the most part anyway. Looked like a hot mess for this morning and the hot mess transpired. I expected storms later on today so I took it upon myself to take advantage of the warm temps to epoxy paint my enclosed trailer floor thinking, “oh I have a few hours before the rain”… I’ll tell you all one thing, don’t. 
 

At least don’t believe the radar when it looks like you’ll have an hour before the rain begins; because surprise! Sideways rain and 40mph wind 5 minutes later from a rogue cell the developed in one scan.  
 

What. A. Mess. Epoxy everywhere, chips all over the yard. Standing water 3” deep in my backyard (where the trailer is currently parked). 


Today, in all… a huge shit sandwich. 
 

 

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58 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The radar is kind of a mess, with only 4 severe warnings in the country right now. I'm not used to temp of 77 with dew of 63. It's like insta-summer.  I'm used to getting the first few 70 degree temps out West, not too long after snow, with a dew point of 20 and a view of the snowy mountains. 

The SPC really kind of busted with the Arkansas area yesterday, you know, like 100% bust when you look at this map.

 

day1otlk_v_20230404_1300.gif

Quincy in the Central States forum brought up the possibility of a 'CAP Bust' on Sunday or Monday for yesterday, the NAMs hinted at it.  Loaded gun forecast soundings but the trigger was never pulled.

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46 minutes ago, Chargers09 said:

Outbreak cancel. Y’all should be used to this in Michigan though. 

I'm all for severe weather out in open fields in Iowa, but I'll never understand why people want severe weather in their backyards and homes. As far as today goes, front sped up, less time for atmosphere to get juiced for metro detroit. It's always something on this side of the state for storms lol.

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