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Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23


cheese007
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Interesting the HRRR still blows up that monster simulated supercell in IL tomorrow but the environment ahead of it is not really impressive...super mixed and with ho-hum low-level shear. I can't get a good sounding in proximity to it that both has impressive parameters and isn't contaminated. :mellow:

Also interesting that the globals (namely EURO) are more bullish on convection than the CAMs.

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NAM cool bias at play again? Just a real headscratcher how we have some models with hot temps/mixing issues and some with capping issues due to cool temps. It is quite dry at 700mb, though. Although I remember people saying dryness at 700mb was gonna be a problem on the Gilmore City day last April.
nam_2023040400_024_41.47--91_73.thumb.png.676a18afcc663182d2b8f501a981cb85.png
Easiest way to tell that's likely an issue is the super low T/Td spreads and saturated low levels indicating socked in stratus. If dew points get that high, highly unlikely 2m temps will only be 1-3F higher than Td.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The RRFS looks a whole lot better too. Still west but with a whole squad of beefy discrete cells.

They are all N of the warm front or quickly crossing it again.  Will have to place yourself in the right spot because these will be elevated soon after forming

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1 minute ago, brianc33710 said:

So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right. 

I'll go with two mods too

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I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.)

uh25_004htotal_totalconusf02700.png

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.)

uh25_004htotal_totalconusf02700.png

Overall there’s very little discrete. The models that do have daytime convection tomorrow, it’s either linear or a multi-cell cluster. RAP, RRFS-A, HREF initiates discrete after sunset close to midnight. The tornado threat appears to be primarily nocturnal now. Early Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.

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7 minutes ago, andyhb said:

image.png.f57f071517b05916090efbcacd7cd3f2.png

Huge 10% hatched in the latest D2 for Wednesday, including some seriously large population centers. Chicago and east could get very interesting from early on Wednesday.

They mention a possible upgrade could be needed and mention a potential for many sig tors. Could be a long day Wednesday.

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The Wed map will quite possibly show considerably higher potential south into KY and TN  in later versions.

Dynamics look quite extreme even at this early stage, 25 C 850 mb readings in n TX, 110 knot 500 mb over n AZ and a surge northward of 20 C dew points into OK. I agree it looks to remain capped to near sunset but look out after that. 

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Wednesday is really starting to look like a Major Severe Weather Outbreak. When the models started to slow the arrival of the front and short wave ejection, it was evident where we were going with this. The activity tomorrow, considering it initiates around or after sunset, will track east and lay down boundaries. Really be interesting to see if a cluster/MCS develops tomorrow night or early morning Wednesday. That tends to always happen the morning of a Major outbreak in the OH/TN Valleys and Great Lakes region.

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