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Saturday, April 1, 2023 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks like instability could be an issue though, especially if the line gets here late? 

The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. 
 

I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential 

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. 
 

I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential 

So normal for CT then.  Got it. 

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

It was around 1pm on the 0z hrrr. I'm about to look at this morning's. 

6z was tame compared to 0z. But the 12z went a bit stronger again. Timing seems like we clear later now 3/4pm. That's not as good for severe, but it should be watched because of the steep lapse rates. That should help feed any activity. 

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34 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Hrrr doesn't look that impressive outside of far western portions of MA and CT. But it should be a widespread strong line of storms. Maybe a few warnings mixed in. Outside chance of a spin up far west. 

This could basically be a sticky for the entire severe weather “season”

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First and failed of the season... 

 ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then

We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

First and failed of these season... 

 ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then

We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself -

The fail rate seems high but I think as usual western areas are still in the game , and eastern areas never really were 

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9 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

13z HRRR is similar to previous runs. It likes western CT, particularly south of 84 to 91/New Haven. Further north it's strong but it's not highlighting that area as much. Storms are largely decaying as they cross CT, marching East. In terms of severe at least. 

Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time .

Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time .

Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there 

You know it. Majority of setups aren't worth it. This is definitely not one I'm moving for lol. 

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