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March 31st Severe Threat


pen_artist
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Mesoscale Discussion 0413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0620 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Far Southeast
   Wisconsin...Western and Central Indiana...Far Southwestern Lower
   Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 96...

   Valid 312320Z - 010115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 96 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to be maintained across WW 96
   over the next few hours, and will increase later this evening as
   storms move into the watch from the west. New WW issuance will
   eventually be needed to the east and south of WW 96, from eastern
   Illinois into west-central Indiana southward into western and
   central Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar from Chicago shows scattered
   strong to severe storms located from the central part of WW 96
   eastward into far northern Indiana. This east-to-west corridor is
   located along a warm front extending east-southeastward from a 996
   mb low. Rotating storms that interact with the warm front could
   become tornadic. Otherwise, a wind-damage and large hail threat will
   continue with the stronger cells along and near the front. As the
   exit region of a 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet approaches from the
   southwest early this evening, large-scale ascent and deep-layer
   shear will increase across the lower Ohio Valley. This will make
   conditions increasingly favorable for severe storms. In response,
   intense storm development will become widespread, especially as
   severe line segments move into the area from the west. Tornadoes,
   wind damage and large hail will be likely with the more intense
   cells.

   The severe threat will increase to the east and south of WW 96 later
   this evening, necessitating WW issuance across parts of southeast
   Illinois into western/central Indiana and Kentucky.

   ..Broyles.. 03/31/2023

mcd0413.png

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1 minute ago, MNstorms said:

 

That's not how it works. They don't do that.

They've done it here plenty of times, been awhile simce they have went off so can't confirm if they did the same last time or not.

Wasn't any type of warning at the time, hell, wasn't even worthy of a SWS IMBY, seen like 3 pea sized hail stones and maybe a gust to 40. Like 2 miles north in Sherman may be a different story.

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1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

They've done it here plenty of times, been awhile simce they have went off so can't confirm if they did the same last time or not.

Wasn't any type of warning at the time, hell, wasn't even worthy of a SWS IMBY, seen like 3 pea sized hail stones and maybe a gust to 40. Like 2 miles north in Sherman may be a different story.

They're not suppose to. Someone should be fired.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 98
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   700 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     East-central and southeastern Illinois
     Western and central Indiana
     Western and central Kentucky
     Extreme southwestern Lower Michigan
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
     until 200 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Several clusters and lines of severe thunderstorms will
   sweep across the watch area through the evening, offering the full
   spectrum of severe hazards: tornadoes (a few strong), severe
   non-tornadic thunderstorm winds, and sporadic large hail.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Fort Campbell KY to 10
   miles northwest of Lafayette IN. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95...WW
   96...WW 97...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24045.

   ...Edwards
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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Just got tornado warned with 80mph wording 

Yeah whole part of the line is under a blanket tornado warning; kinematics must be kicking up, looks scary for the chicago metro if it holds together

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