yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Hope everyone stays safe and if chasing... don't be stupid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Big question on my mind, does the SPC push the Moderate Risk eastwards given what appears to be better clearing than model guidance expected plus these remarkable short-term models showing at least a couple rotating storms moving thru NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said: april 14, 2012 out on the high plains. april 13's day 2 featured two separate high risks and then april 14 started out with two before they eventually became one. We will see if today's high risk areas merge (or should have been merged in retrospect). If the separate high risk areas stay separate for the duration, that will be a first at least (I think?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: Big question on my mind, does the SPC push the Moderate Risk eastwards given what appears to be better clearing than model guidance expected plus these remarkable short-term models showing at least a couple rotating storms moving thru NE IL. This is what I'm trying to figure out. Obviously can't make the high risk anymore but the HRRR is sticking to its guns with a couple of decent cells farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Big question on my mind, does the SPC push the Moderate Risk eastwards given what appears to be better clearing than model guidance expected plus these remarkable short-term models showing at least a couple rotating storms moving thru NE IL. It'll cover a decent chunk of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 For what it may be worth, appears the latest HRRR is underdoing instability in northern Missouri considerably: latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a pocket of 3000+ j/kg SBCAPE across the area, whereas the HRRR (15z run, showing 16z forecast CAPE) only has it at about 2500 j/kg. Feels like a bit of an abyss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Funny that a large blob of clouds is over the northern High Risk zone. That isn't going to affect the instability there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Funny that a large blob of clouds is over the northern High Risk zone. That isn't going to affect the instability there? it's an old dead thunderstorm anvil that is thinning and moving fast so not much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Getting filtered sun here, stay safe today everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Has 'that' feel down here in Decatur, especially since the sun came out a bit ago. Dewpoint is 55 already here, and it's warm. Feels 'juiced' as one of the TV Mets used to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Need some opinions here. I’m currently planning to catch a train out of Harvard at 5:20pm, set to arrive in Jefferson Park at 6:48pm. HRRR seems to be showing a lull in severity between 5 & 7pm, but severe weather can pop up whenever it wants. I can’t read the advanced stuff for rain events as well as I know others here can. Should I stick to that train or try for a later one/get the first train out tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 MDT moved eastwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Mod risk just got shoved way east into E IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Mod risk just got shoved way east into E IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Is anyone able to get an image of this outlook on a county level for N IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 how much of a tornado threat do you think will be in SW ohio? we are now in the enhanced zone and I'm excited to see what's going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, pen_artist said: Is anyone able to get an image of this outlook on a county level for N IL? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Seems like SPC either doesnt like far NE IL for sig. wind/tornadoes or is deliberately trying to avoid showing the moderate risk over the lake And with NE storm motion (not SE) the boundaries seem a bit confusing to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Taking care of a few things, and then will be headed WSW. Initial target likely Galesburg area, though that could change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Damn URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WESTERN ILLINOIS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 65/57 in DeKalb Co w/sun. The fuse is lit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 It 100% feels like summer out there today at least comparatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Damn URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WESTERN ILLINOIS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. 95/90 probs. one of those kinds of days i suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wild to see a PDS tornado watch touching a WWA, and one county removed from a WSW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 One of the more ridiculous UH maps I’ve seen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 At 1155 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or 9 miles north of Slater, moving northeast at 70 mph. These storms are moving fast. Going to make chasing rather challenging for those who go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Agreed, is crazy to see some counties in Northern Iowa in both WWA and the PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just measured 65/51 in downtown Chicago, this is definitely overperforming versus what the models were predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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