Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April 2023


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 

Yeah my bad. The severe weather moments are flickering moments and every outlook is usually more hope than reality. 
June 2010. August 2014. November 2022. That’s of top of mind.  Our marine layer makes LI a severe storm wasteland most times. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, bkviking said:

CPC has us warmer than normal. Not sure that means much anymore. But above normal precip - which tends to be an El Niño symptom for our area. Anecdotally, incoming El Niños have been nasty summers. Summer 2009 is one that sticks in mind as such a nightmare. But I’m sure others can offer the true statistics on these. 

2009 is my favorite summer of all time lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Odd that we're in an enhanced risk but they're not issuing a watch

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
   Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

   Valid 012037Z - 012230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
   eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
   possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
   Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
   large hail by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
   rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
   wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
   moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
   continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
   rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. 

   Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
   activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
   storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
   and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
   and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
   coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
   increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
   tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
   activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
   southern NY and New England.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this SST profile keeps pumping the SE Ridge.
 

 

 

 
 

This is why I don’t share the optimism many have for a Niño next winter. It’s totally possible I’m completely wrong and we have a kickass snow season finally, but I really feel like we’re going to struggle with warmth again. Domestic cold has been tough for us lately, we need that arctic pipeline in place. 
 

I haven’t touched on it much but several climatologists I follow have mentioned as far back as last year how they expect the next Niño to surge us globally over 1.5C, and now that’s even likelier due to the unfortunate, unexpected warmth forcing of Hunga Tonga. 
 

Prior to the recent papers that came out about that I tried to remain optimistic the ash and sulfur aerosol, though not as much as it should’ve been, would offset the warming caused by the water vapor flux. But the latest papers on this topic suggest that won’t be the case and will contribute to a strong warming push the next few years. 
 

Can’t extrapolate that down to regional conditions and yes we could still have a kickass winter despite with good teleconnections, but I’m concerned we’re going to be even torchier than normal. And if the N Atlantic is still on fire, perhaps even a Niño won’t temper the dreaded SER. 
 

Hoping to be 100% dead wrong. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:
Mesoscale Discussion 0432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New
   Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

   Valid 012037Z - 012230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into
   eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop
   possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey.
   Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and
   large hail by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move
   rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe
   wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited
   moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures
   continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting
   rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. 

   Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this
   activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional
   storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA
   and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells,
   and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening
   coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any
   increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a
   tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any
   activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across
   southern NY and New England.

 

But they haven't extended that east yet

Usually they're indicate the percentage of watch being issued

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very windy out…never a good sign for significant storms near the coast 

I consider it a win if there’s more than a dying thundershower here from these lines coming from the west. They collapse immediately when hitting the marine layer east of the city. And this time of year that effect is even greater. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...