Spring 2023 Banter Hangout

[frostfern]

On 5/16/2023 at 8:34 AM, Powerball said:

Statistically, that's incorrect.

1. Michigan is only responsible for 2% of the country's corn production, versus double digit numbers in IL / MN / NE / IA respectfully (and 7% in IN). And just about all of this 2% is concentrated in an extremely small portion of MI (Saginaw Valley and along the immediate MI/OH/IN border)

2. While a large oak tree for example can transpire maybe 40,000 gallons of water per year (which true, Michigan has plenty of), corn can transpire 4,000 gallons of water *PER DAY*.

So the difference is a lot greater than "negligible."

I get the frustration about the lack of severe weather or even t'storm activity in Michigan. But it has far less to do with synoptic patterns than you guys want to attribute. It's a combination of bad luck, the influence of vegetations/bodies of waters and also remembering the past in a much better light than what really happened.

The problem is you speak like corn is the reason tornado alley is centered is centered on the plains and MS valley and not New England.  I’m not working due to chrinic illness but I have a meteorology / atmos-sci degree.  I know the Rock Mountains play a bigger role than you think.  I mean, Oklahoma has so much more f*ing corn compared to Indiana in April.  

Also why are you even talking about summer convection climatology and in the same breath discrediting a perceived decrease in *SPRING* thunderstorms in recent years in Michigan.  The two are different topics.  Summer 2021 was more stormy than average here.

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, frostfern said:

The problem is you speak like corn is the reason tornado alley is centered is centered on the plains and MS valley and not New England.  I’m not working due to chrinic illness but I have a meteorology / atmos-sci degree.  I know the Rock Mountains play a bigger role than you think.  I mean, Oklahoma has so much more f*ing corn compared to Indiana in April.  

Also why are you even talking about summer convection climatology and in the same breath discrediting a perceived decrease in *SPRING* thunderstorms in recent years in Michigan.  The two are different topics.  Summer 2021 was more stormy than average here.

I'll repeat myself one more time, because (with all due respect) now you're just talking in circles.

The discussion was about why areas in this subforum (but now you're trying to move the goal post by comparing some place like Oklahoma) outside of MI see severe weather more frequently.

The answer is because:

1. They live in an area where don't have to deal with the stabilizing effects from cool bodies of water, thus t'storm downdrafts have a much easier time mixing down to the surface to produce damage and a t'storm's updraft doesn't get cut off as easily.

2. They live in an area where the moisture content that contributes to the levels of instability/precip-loading is notably higher due to having an extensive coverage of corn fields, which empirically hold/transpire water much more efficiently than other vegetation. T'storms, by their nature, tend to develop more easily and propagate towards regions where the combined instability/moisture levels are highest.

It has little to do with droughts, pressure bars, frontal timing (which is mainly just bad luck), nor whatever other theory has been concocted.

Also, I'm not sure what's your point about Spring vs. Summer convection. The ingredients required for convection and severe weather are the same regardles of the time of year and location. It's just that in some places and during some seasons, these ingredients come together more frequently than others.

I can't make it any clearer than I already have. And if the answer (despite being reality, which you know good & well it is if you're a Met) isn't satisfying, that's too bad. My suggestion is if you're frustrated with severe weather climo in Michigan, you should move to a favorable region like I did.

[SolidIcewx]

8 hours ago, frostfern said:

The problem is you speak like corn is the reason tornado alley is centered is centered on the plains and MS valley and not New England.  I’m not working due to chrinic illness but I have a meteorology / atmos-sci degree.  I know the Rock Mountains play a bigger role than you think.  I mean, Oklahoma has so much more f*ing corn compared to Indiana in April.  

Also why are you even talking about summer convection climatology and in the same breath discrediting a perceived decrease in *SPRING* thunderstorms in recent years in Michigan.  The two are different topics.  Summer 2021 was more stormy than average here.

 

31 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'll repeat myself one more time, because (with all due respect) now you're just talking in circles.

The discussion was about why areas in this subforum (but now you're trying to move the goal post by comparing some place like Oklahoma) outside of MI see severe weather more frequently.

The answer is because:

1. They live in an area where don't have to deal with the stabilizing effects from cool bodies of water, thus t'storm downdrafts have a much easier time mixing down to the surface to produce damage and a t'storm's updraft doesn't get cut off as easily.

2. They live in an area where the moisture content that contributes to the levels of instability/precip-loading is notably higher due to having an extensive coverage of corn fields, which empirically hold/transpire water much more efficiently than other vegetation. T'storms, by their nature, tend to develop more easily and propagate towards regions where the combined instability/moisture levels are highest.

It has little to do with droughts, pressure bars, frontal timing (which is mainly just bad luck), nor whatever other theory has been concocted.

Also, I'm not sure what's your point about Spring vs. Summer convection. The ingredients required for convection and severe weather are the same regardles of the time of year and location. It's just that in some places and during some seasons, these ingredients come together more frequently than others.

I can't make it any clearer than I already have. And if the answer (despite being reality, which you know good & well it is if you're a Met) isn't satisfying, that's too bad. 

 

[A-L-E-K]

Bring it

 

[weatherbo]

Move along, nothing to see here.  Just your average late spring smoke storm.

[cyclone77]

40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Bring it

 

The new alberta clipper.  Might as well since clippers in the winter are pretty much non-existent anymore lol

[Harry Perry]

Oh would ya just look at it? 
 

No, not the smoke… 

Nope, not the corn….

 

But another lovely backdoor cold front plowing down from where? You guessed it… the Northeast on Wednesday. The blocking lives on! 

[A-L-E-K]

Pure Michigan^

[SolidIcewx]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Pure Michigan^

Pure bullshit for sure

[luckyweather]

Flash drought mentioned in LOT AFD this morning. That’s a new one for me.

[RCNYILWX]

Flash drought mentioned in LOT AFD this morning. That’s a new one for me.

That's what we had in May-June 2012. 5 days in the 90s and 14 days of 80+ highs in May 2012 got things rolling.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[CheeselandSkies]

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

That's what we had in May-June 2012. 5 days in the 90s and 14 days of 80+ highs in May 2012 got things rolling.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

The "Morch" and near-total lack of snow the preceding winter didn't help, I'm sure.

[hardypalmguy]

On 5/19/2023 at 11:26 PM, SolidIcewx said:

Nothing like going to sleep then seeing a storm pop up to track

Indian Rocks Beach is where it's at. 

[Chinook]

I want some thunderstorms to track in the Midwest.

[cyclone77]

^ June will be rockin

[SolidIcewx]

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

^ June will be rockin

One I80-I94 derecho please

[Harry]

19 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The "Morch" and near-total lack of snow the preceding winter didn't help, I'm sure.

 

You got that right. 

[frostfern]

20 hours ago, Chinook said:

I want some thunderstorms to track in the Midwest.

It's almost a corbon copy of May 2021 with the heat in the west, blocked up jet, and dryness over the Midwest.  Really hope June finally turns around like that year.

[Jonger]

This smoke overhead absolutely sucks. It has an September vibe.

[cyclone77]

I'm just glad the smoke waited till now to invade the US.  Would have sucked if it had hazed up the northern lights show a few weeks ago.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 5/18/2023 at 10:27 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

What's all that in Mexico? Hopefully, Popo isn't about to blow its top.

Oh, boy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/world/americas/mexico-volcano-popocatepetl-eruption.html

[Lightning]

4 hours ago, frostfern said:

It's almost a corbon copy of May 2021 with the heat in the west, blocked up jet, and dryness over the Midwest.  Really hope June finally turns around like that year.

Yeah things really got going in mid-June that year.  Hopefully we can get a similar pattern change for this area.  

[Harry]

18 hours ago, Jonger said:

This smoke overhead absolutely sucks. It has an September vibe.

 

I could actually smell it for the first time late last night/early this morning.. 

[CheeselandSkies]

If possible this May has managed to be even more boring than 2020-22. It used to be my favorite month for its volatile weather and thunder/threats. What is with these locked-in doldrums patterns/endless stretches of absolutely nothing to track? I mean, it's nice that it's pleasant outside but with the ultra-low dewpoints I'm on the verge of having the same dry skin issues I do in the winter.

[WaryWarren]

I feel your pain, fellow dry skin sufferer.

Never. Stop. Lotioning.

 

[SolidIcewx]

Only good thing about this back door front is the fact the skies will clear for a day or two 

[Lightning]

This spring blows chunks!! 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, WaryWarren said:

I feel your pain, fellow dry skin sufferer.

Never. Stop. Lotioning.

 

I can't believe this is actually his official Facebook picture.

[A-L-E-K]

7 hours ago, Lightning said:

This spring blows chunks!! 

it's been beautiful, normies are loving it

[hawkeye_wx]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's been beautiful, normies are loving it

I hate the dry, but it is very pleasant.