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Severe Weather 3-16-23


cheese007
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  • cheese007 changed the title to Severe Weather 3-16-23

GFS shows a cap that never really breaks.  There are  Thursday afternoon/evening storms, especially E Texas and N. Louisiana, but there is only skinny CAPE above the weak cap ahead of them.  Front maybe stalling somewhere near I-10 and PWs around 1.6, rain Thursday-Friday might be bigger issue.

 

Edit to add- if instability were higher in N. Louisiana, which could happen, dynamics are there for sig severe.

weakCAPE_cinh.png

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23 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS shows a cap that never really breaks.  There are  Thursday afternoon/evening storms, especially E Texas and N. Louisiana, but there is only skinny CAPE above the weak cap ahead of them.  Front maybe stalling somewhere near I-10 and PWs around 1.6, rain Thursday-Friday might be bigger issue.

 

Edit to add- if instability were higher in N. Louisiana, which could happen, dynamics are there for sig severe.

weakCAPE_cinh.png

 

I could see this outlook possibly upgrading to at least enhanced by Thursday.

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12 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

 

I could see this outlook possibly upgrading to at least enhanced by Thursday.

I don't have access to Euro instability, but judging from TWC discussion about Thursday, that model probably does have instability.  As mentioned, N. Louisiana has the dynamics per GFS if only instability was higher.

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Thinking we could possibly see a hatched for tornadoes tomorrow.

 

From the SPC

 

Farther south along the front into central/eastern TX, the front
   will continue to push rapidly south overnight, with increasing storm
   coverage. Ample instability will interact with the front, with
   parallel deep-layer shear vectors and weakening winds in the low
   levels. Hail appears to be the main threat as the storms become
   undercut by the cold air, but a narrow zone of damaging wind
   potential could materialize should storms propagate fast enough to
   keep up with the front. The cells over southern OK and North TX
   prior to 00Z in particularly may produce damaging hail and a tornado
   or two before the front undercuts the activity. Any cells or bows
   that can propagate with a strong eastward component may reside along
   the boundary longer, enhancing both severe wind and tornado threat.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Thinking we could possibly see a hatched for tornadoes tomorrow.

 

From the SPC

 

Farther south along the front into central/eastern TX, the front
   will continue to push rapidly south overnight, with increasing storm
   coverage. Ample instability will interact with the front, with
   parallel deep-layer shear vectors and weakening winds in the low
   levels. Hail appears to be the main threat as the storms become
   undercut by the cold air, but a narrow zone of damaging wind
   potential could materialize should storms propagate fast enough to
   keep up with the front. The cells over southern OK and North TX
   prior to 00Z in particularly may produce damaging hail and a tornado
   or two before the front undercuts the activity. Any cells or bows
   that can propagate with a strong eastward component may reside along
   the boundary longer, enhancing both severe wind and tornado threat.

 

 

 

Looking at the NAM, I don't see a lot of stronger tornadoes, myself.  Instability just isn't great.  I will note SigTors over 2 per the model in North Texas, the dynamics are good.  1 km helicity numbers near 300 m^2/s^2.

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Huh? Instability is one the strengths with this setup especially closer to the Red River unless you're only looking at the GFS. A lot of CAPE concentrated in the lowest 6 km, which should yield some strong updrafts assuming initiation does take place.

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15 hours ago, andyhb said:

Huh? Instability is one the strengths with this setup especially closer to the Red River unless you're only looking at the GFS. A lot of CAPE concentrated in the lowest 6 km, which should yield some strong updrafts assuming initiation does take place.

Model instability forecasts for today have increased substantially in the last 36-48 hours of model runs, including the NAM.  2 to 3K J/Kg CAPE would obviously support severe.  I knew watching TWC and reading SPC outlooks Euro instability had to be much higher than GFS instability but I'm not paying for any PPV models at the moment.

 

OT- HGX radar is interesting, a few small heavy elevated cells moving near W to E passing directly over streamer showers moving near N to S.  Much heavier echos with the elevated storms.  Not sure I've seen that before.  https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=HGX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad  We are at the edge of the Slight.  I can upload weather.gov GIF loop but it doesn't show the way it does on DuPage page.

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Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance.

However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html

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19 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Tor warning for Dallas. Close to October 20, 2019 path

I just enjoyed that from Love Field.  Sirens were blaring.  Airline employees took shelter.  Couplet moved right overhead.  Got a nice view outside facing west.  Nice little storm but rain wrapped and no sign of touchdown.  

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