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Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

this will change A LOT but heres a preliminary map based on reports so far. The reports are from varying times so take it with a grain of salt.

Ill do a full map when its all said and done and probably one for CT/MA/RI with that new map i made for SNE

03_14.23_jdj_snowfall_totals_preliminary.thumb.jpg.7576c98a2ff2de77ffa0102215b48151.jpg

 

 

Looks accurate here

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

this will change A LOT but heres a preliminary map based on reports so far. The reports are from varying times so take it with a grain of salt.

Ill do a full map when its all said and done and probably one for CT/MA/RI with that new map i made for SNE

03_14.23_jdj_snowfall_totals_preliminary.thumb.jpg.7576c98a2ff2de77ffa0102215b48151.jpg

 

 

Add a big fat ugly f*****g 3" in Weatogue and cut that back a little west. 

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Just now, TalcottWx said:

I'm declaring the winter the biggest piece of shit to ever grace CTRV and I'm going the liquor store. 

i know how you feel, trust me. Just a trace here with rain and white rain all day. Ive had enough. All these storms and potential for March and i have nothing to show for it but 0.0"

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1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

People trash a model if snowfall doesn't produce in their back yard. If someone says 'x' model sucks, I want them to cite an evaluation (post-hoc or operational) of meteorological forcing fields related to heat and moisture both at the surface and aloft. Those fields contributes significantly to the accuracy of NWP... Not snowfall at one location (which is typically calculated from a private website, excluding a couple NWP models).

If someone were to run an evaluation of this event, you'll likely find that temperature performed well (sfc + aloft), moisture performed okay (Td or specific humidity at the sfc and aloft), and wind speed performed okay (directional and magnitudinal at the sfc and aloft - worse as you approach the surface). All NWP models struggle with QPF (for a number of reasons) so it's not solely used to determine a model's overall performance. Through my experience, it usually performs reasonable as a bulk statistic.

IMO, ensembles should always be used for QPF forecasting. Diagnostic models should be used to determine trends.

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. 

When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. 

Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this. 

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33 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Several School districts across portions of mainly northern Litchfield County are canceling for Wednesday due to trees and power lines down and some impassable roads...

No power up here in north central Massachusetts now working on 2 1/2 hours…. House getting chilly

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i know how you feel, trust me. Just a trace here with rain and white rain all day. Ive had enough. All these storms and potential for March and i have nothing to show for it but 0.0"

It's just really difficult to accept when we are maybe 1F off from more significant accumulations. At least this woman's dogs are enjoying the white rain. 

Perhaps I should be patient for another hour. But I'm about out of patience. 

Just had to overcome the BL for a nice finish. The setup is there. Right now I am not encouraged. 

747139804_20230314_155653-min(1).thumb.jpg.e9b42b7f1d0ba1fa6f2b0d861627bc78.jpg

 

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. 

When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. 

Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this. 

I like snow maps :)

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Winds starting to pick up here. Wish the snow would...growth is awful but the goods still to the west. 

Been noticing there is still some dry air issues from the earlier dry slot. Appears to be working itself out, but causing a delay in better snow up by you. 

I think that is why I was snowing about an hour ago, and then it abruptly went back to a mix when those bands moved in from the NE. 

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Just now, TalcottWx said:

Been noticing there is still some dry air issues from the earlier dry slot. Appears to be working itself out, but causing a delay in better snow up by you. 

I think that is why I was snowing about an hour ago, and then it abruptly went back to a mix when those bands moved in from the NE. 

Yeah that makes sense. There is probably some subsidence going on as well, I think Scott mentioned this a few hours ago (or someone did) 

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54 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Check my post in the storm thread with link to visible satellite, the center has started to make its loop, past hour motion is NW by 0.5 deg lat and long, from previous hour 42N 67W to about 42.5 67.5. It is also deepening, so would not say the "bombing out" scenario is entirely dead yet. Future positions in this loop may end up just 50 to 75 miles east of BOS before it drifts back east and away from MA. This evolution will probably allow coastal and parallel inland bands to maintain positions or drift very slowly towards the coast as colder air surrounds the stacking low at all levels. Probably 5-8" snow for BOS and 10-15" additional for some places already with snow on ground. Not sure if it helps much in e CT or any part of RI, se MA but 2-4" might be feasible in some places. 

No one is getting 10-15" more...go lather yourself up with mustard.

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20 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

People trash a model if snowfall doesn't produce in their back yard. If someone says 'x' model sucks, I want them to cite an evaluation (post-hoc or operational) of meteorological forcing fields related to heat and moisture both at the surface and aloft. Those fields contributes significantly to the accuracy of NWP... Not snowfall at one location (which is typically calculated from a private website, excluding a couple NWP models).

If someone were to run an evaluation of this event, you'll likely find that temperature performed well (sfc + aloft), moisture performed okay (Td or specific humidity at the sfc and aloft), and wind speed performed okay (directional and magnitudinal at the sfc and aloft - worse as you approach the surface). All NWP models struggle with QPF (for a number of reasons) so it's not solely used to determine a model's overall performance. Through my experience, it usually performs reasonable as a bulk statistic.

IMO, ensembles should always be used for QPF forecasting. Diagnostic models should be used to determine trends.

Just as an orbital perspective… I can see traits of just about every model rendition I saw over the past week. A little GGEM, a little bit of Euro, a little bit of GFS even a little bit of Nam… I kept seeing something that reminded me of a specific model run from XYZ tool some three or four days ago and what has transpired during the day today it’s like they were all right and they were all wrong, depending on which cycle…

If we blended them all, the entire “super ensemble” …I bet it would look just about identical to what actually happened

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