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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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50 minutes ago, snywx said:

Terrible logic

from Harriman to the GWB it’s 40 mins straight down the palisades 

Less traffic but the geographical distance from midtown to western Suffolk is definitely less than midtown to Harriman. 
 

Western Suffolk geographical distance is like northern Westchester/Rockland. 
 

 

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Here are the big winners

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)

CONNECTICUT

...Litchfield County...
  New Hartford           14.0   817 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  Winsted                12.1   800 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  Torrington             11.5   820 PM  3/14  Twitter
  1 SE Winsted           11.3   916 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter

MASSACHUSETTS

...Berkshire County...
  Hancock                27.0  1136 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  2 ENE Pittsfield       26.7   715 AM  3/15  Elevation 1194 Feet
  Becket                 26.0   722 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Otis                   24.0   615 PM  3/14  Amateur Radio
  3 S Sandisfield        23.1  1000 PM  3/14  Twitter
  Pittsfield             23.0   727 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  2 NNE Pittsfield       22.5   948 PM  3/14  1194 ft elevation
  Lenoxdale              20.5   700 AM  3/15  Co-Op Observer
  Adams                  20.0   849 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  3 S New Ashford        19.0   700 PM  3/14  Town of Lanesborough
  1 E Lenox              18.2  1000 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Lanesborough           16.0  1059 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Stockbridge            14.0   555 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Cheshire               13.0   700 PM  3/14  Amateur Radio
  Williamstown           13.0   700 PM  3/14  Amateur Radio
  North Adams            11.0   635 AM  3/15  Amateur Radio

NEW YORK

...Albany County...
  Knox                   24.5  1120 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Rensselaerville        24.0   618 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Ballston Lake          15.5  1059 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  Albany                 13.0   800 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  4 SE Duanesburg        13.0   621 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  2 W Delmar             10.5   751 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  Albany Intl AP         10.1  1000 PM  3/14  ASOS
  2 SW Voorheesville      9.5   755 AM  3/15  Amateur Radio
  2 W Albany              9.2  1000 PM  3/14  Retired NWS Emp.
  Delmar                  9.0  1127 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Boght Corners           8.8   945 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  3 NW Guilderland        8.7   630 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  Colonie                 8.6   846 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  1 NNW Colonie           8.4   745 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  2 ESE Westmere          7.5  1025 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  1 W Albany              6.8  1000 PM  3/14  NWS Employee

...Columbia County...
  3 N Austerlitz         31.0   725 AM  3/15  Elevation 1750 Feet
  4 NNW Hillsdale        24.3   715 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  Austerlitz             20.5  1101 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Canaan                 18.0   630 PM  3/14  Facebook
  Taghkanic              13.2   846 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Kinderhook              8.0   630 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter

...Dutchess County...
  Beekman                12.0   915 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Millbrook              11.0   730 PM  3/14  Facebook
  Poughkeepsie            7.5   830 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Hopewell Junction       7.5   830 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Red Oaks Mill           6.3  1100 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter

...Fulton County...
  Perth                   8.0   606 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

...Greene County...
  4 SW Palenville        36.0   621 PM  3/14  Elevation 2100 Feet
  Hunter                 32.3   731 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  West Kill              32.0   801 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Halcott Center         19.0   612 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Greenville Center      18.0   624 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Cairo                   9.0   749 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Catskill                5.5  1128 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

...Hamilton County...
  Piseco                 27.0   729 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6

...Herkimer County...
  Dolgeville              6.0   115 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter

...Montgomery County...
  Glen                   17.0   629 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Fonda                   8.0   759 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Amsterdam               7.9  1149 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

...Rensselaer County...
  Poestenkill            25.3  1145 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  2 NNW Averill Park     23.0   740 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Berlin                 21.0  1030 PM  3/14  Facebook
  Valley Falls           19.5  1100 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  West Sand Lake         19.5   900 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Speigletown            18.0   637 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  North Greenbush        18.0  1030 PM  3/14  Facebook
  1 N Sycaway            17.2   100 AM  3/15  NWS Employee
  East Greenbush         17.0   855 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Troy                   16.0   715 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  1 SW Valley Falls      15.7   750 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Buskirk                15.0   820 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  Hoosick Falls          14.5   744 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  1 S Troy               13.5   700 PM  3/14  Amateur Radio
  2 SSE Watervliet       13.5   651 PM  3/14  Amateur Radio
  Schaghticoke           13.0   712 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  2 WNW Wyantskill       12.0   800 AM  3/15  Amateur Radio

...Saratoga County...
  Lake Desolation        26.0  1141 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  4 WNW Rock City Fall   21.4   620 PM  3/14  CoCoRaHS
  Corinth                18.0   620 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  2 NW Quaker Springs    17.0   645 PM  3/14  Social Media
  Galway                 13.6  1054 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  2 ESE Clifton Park     12.5   910 PM  3/14  NWS Employee
  Clifton Park           11.8  1000 PM  3/14  CoCoRaHS
  Halfmoon               11.5   713 PM  3/14  Fire Dept/Rescue
  Saratoga Lake           9.3   920 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Saratoga Springs        9.3  1020 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Ballston Spa            8.2   617 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Charlton                8.0   623 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  4 WNW Gansevoort        8.0   730 PM  3/14  CoCoRaHS

...Schenectady County...
  Delanson               29.0   831 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Duanesburg             12.0   652 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  1 SSW Aqueduct          9.5   930 PM  3/14  NWS Employee

...Schoharie County...
  Middleburgh            30.0   644 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Jefferson              24.0  1128 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Richmondville          24.0   437 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  1 SE Gilboa            23.0   900 PM  3/14  Town of Conesville
  Schoharie              21.0  1142 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6
  Charlotteville         16.0   838 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

...Ulster County...
  4 S Halcott Center     20.0   826 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  West Shokan             4.0   852 AM  3/15  Public

...Warren County...
  Stony Creek            36.0   943 PM  3/14  1500 feet elevation.
  Lake Luzerne           15.5   633 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Glens Falls             9.5   730 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Queensbury              8.5   607 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

...Washington County...
  Granville              24.0   751 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Hartford               20.0   616 PM  3/14  Trained Spotter
  Hebron                 18.0   737 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  Whitehall               5.0   642 PM  3/14  WeatherNet6

VERMONT

...Bennington County...
  Landgrove              40.0   726 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6
  1 ESE Arlington        30.4   825 AM  3/15  Trained Spotter
  West Arlington         11.0   657 AM  3/15  WeatherNet6

...Windham County...
  Wilmington             36.0   613 AM  3/15  Park/Forest Srvc
  Marlboro               36.0   830 PM  3/14  Facebook
  Brattleboro            23.0   630 PM  3/14  Facebook
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

just say coastal plain, because the climate rapidly changes as you go inland.  I see that as I head west basically once 20 minutes beyond the Lincoln Tunnel you see snow on the side of the roads lol

I think NYC and Long Island are mostly in the same climate zone and NW NJ is two climate zones colder than we are.

 

Yea this was basically my point, I guess climate zones is actually a better way to phrase it than nyc metro, thanks. 

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10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Huntington is far western Suffolk so not that far from NYC. Anyway I don’t really get why people NW get so bothered by not being referred to as immediate NYC Metro? Your climo is so drastically different and in a good way for snow lovers. 
 

 

Western Suffolk and SE Orange is roughly the same distance from Manhattan. 2-3 miles is the difference. It just seems closer because there isn’t much of a difference from the 5 boros in regards to potential weather impacts 

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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Western Suffolk and SE Orange is roughly the same distance from Manhattan. 2-3 miles is the difference. It just seems closer because there isn’t much of a difference from the 5 boros in regards to potential weather impacts 

Yea I think your last sentence is why it’s viewed differently but I like Liberty’s idea of focusing on different climo zones within the metro region. 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely horrible performance from the Euro/EPS, HRRR, Ukie, ICON and NAM. NAM was beyond horrible. The RGEM/CMC totally schooled them and so did the GFS

The RGEM was pretty bad for northern parts of the subforum. I agree though it’s still the best of a bad group, at least it won’t get you dissapointed.

 

The NAM is beyond horrible. People can post what they want but I don’t know why people even post that model anymore it’s way off over and over again. 

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely horrible performance from the Euro/EPS, HRRR, Ukie, ICON and NAM. NAM was beyond horrible. The RGEM/CMC totally schooled them and so did the GFS

The intracacies of the low position, track etc absolutely. In terms of sensible weather impacts outside of maybe immediate Boston they did a good job. The models 4-5 days in advance focused in on the areas that got buried. It’s not like they were dry and someplace else got crushed. The areas on the periphery are always the toughest. If Boston was 2-3 degrees colder during the storm they’d have the 8”+ many models had there. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I would like it to be 30 inches lol, that's a nice round number.  That 30 year average is so unbearably close to 30 inches lol, so let's just keep it at 30 inches.

Boston's average also went up with the new 30 year averages, but I don't think it got over 45....not sure what it is now but the old 30 year averages were around 42.

 

Boston’s is around 49” now. The crushers in the 2010s especially 14-15 helped a lot. 

The eastern 2/3 of Suffolk County should be thought of as New England climate-wise more than Mid Atlantic. It’s really just an extension of S CT and RI. Some North Shore areas from my backyard and east average just as much snow as coastal CT and get impacted by the same types of storms. SW of NYC is Mid Atlantic climate. NYC is really the transition zone that can get blanked and bonanza’d by both storm types which makes our area especially hard to forecast for. 

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1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Less traffic but the geographical distance from midtown to western Suffolk is definitely less than midtown to Harriman. 
 

Western Suffolk geographical distance is like northern Westchester/Rockland. 
 

 

One of the reasons I move to Westchester was how much quicker and easier it is to get to Manhattan.

 

It is just too hard to get on and off Long Island. You take a place like Huntington and you can be in Putnam easily in same time

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Boston’s is around 49” now. The crushers in the 2010s especially 14-15 helped a lot. 

The eastern 2/3 of Suffolk County should be thought of as New England climate-wise more than Mid Atlantic. It’s really just an extension of S CT and RI. Some North Shore areas from my backyard and east average just as much snow as coastal CT and get impacted by the same types of storms. SW of NYC is Mid Atlantic climate. NYC is really the transition zone that can get blanked and bonanza’d by both storm types which makes our area especially hard to forecast for. 

I think your area should have around a 35 inch average basically between Huntington and Wading River and down to about Upton.

SW Nassau is closer to coastal NJ in climate I always look at that area to see if we are going to do well with snow more than I do either Suffolk County or NYC.  North coastal NJ though, not a place like Toms River or further south.

 

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3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

One of the reasons I move to Westchester was how much quicker and easier it is to get to Manhattan.

 

It is just too hard to get on and off Long Island. You take a place like Huntington and you can be in Putnam easily in same time

Yeah the person who designed the highways here just didn't want people to travel a lot between Manhattan and Long Island.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I would like it to be 30 inches lol, that's a nice round number.  That 30 year average is so unbearably close to 30 inches lol, so let's just keep it at 30 inches.

Boston's average also went up with the new 30 year averages, but I don't think it got over 45....not sure what it is now but the old 30 year averages were around 42.

 

Data for Boston (Logan) that I've gleaned has their 1920-on average at 43.2" (with some early decades not at Logan) and 49.7" for 1991-2020.  For the 2010s it was 52.4".  (Without 2014-15, the 30-year is 47.4" and the 2010s only 46.0".)

Edit:  Ninja-ed by jm1220

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Data for Boston (Logan) that I've gleaned has their 1920-on average at 43.2" (with some early decades not at Logan) and 49.7" for 1991-2020.  For the 2010s it was 52.4".  (Without 2014-15, the 30-year is 47.4" and the 2010s only 46.0".)

Edit:  Ninja-ed by jm1220

wow they have increased even more than NYC has.  I wonder if they had a similar dip in snowfall average in the 70s and 80s like NYC did, and a higher peak back in the earlier decades (when NYC was averaging 30 inches or more of snow every decade.)

 

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11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

One of the reasons I move to Westchester was how much quicker and easier it is to get to Manhattan.

 

It is just too hard to get on and off Long Island. You take a place like Huntington and you can be in Putnam easily in same time

I also never wanted to be stuck on an island. For example yesterday I got to drive to upper Westchester to snow chase in 30 minutes. From LI it would take hours to get out of NYC especially during rush hour. 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow they have increased even more than NYC has.  I wonder if they had a similar dip in snowfall average in the 70s and 80s like NYC did, and a higher peak back in the earlier decades (when NYC was averaging 30 inches or more of snow every decade.)

 

34.1" in the 1980s.  Only one season topped 60" and it took the 13.3" April blizzard to get there.  70s were about the same as the LT avg.

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At least we got a little taste of what winter is like again before the end.  Was nice to at least see the grass and trees covered yesterday when the snow began to stick.  Rough season but hopefully we do better next year.  I'm ready for spring now.  Temps are going to feel good the next couple of days; upper 50's and maybe low 60's.

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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah the person who designed the highways here just didn't want people to travel a lot between Manhattan and Long Island.

There are plenty of highways on LI, espec in western sections. I think part of the problem is the high population density in Nassau and that to get in and out of LI you HAVE to go thru an even denser Queens. For Westchester, once you are out of Manhattan the density falls off dramatically which, combined with numerous highway/parkway options makes it a quicker ride.

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11 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

There are plenty of highways on LI, espec in western sections. I think part of the problem is the high population density in Nassau and that to get in and out of LI you HAVE to go thru an even denser Queens. For Westchester, once you are out of Manhattan the density falls off dramatically which, combined with numerous highway/parkway options makes it a quicker ride.

The Bronx can get pretty crowded to travel through but even the Bronx north of the cross Bronx usually isn’t as congested as Queens. I find Westchester has way less traffic than Nassau. 

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CT highways are more frustrating than LI highways to me. I find the traffic flow on 495 and the Southern State Pkwy to be much more predictable than 95, 84, or Merritt Pkwy even if LI’s traffic volume is greater overall. I’ll take NJ over either of them though.

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5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The Bronx can get pretty crowded to travel through but even the Bronx north of the cross Bronx usually isn’t as congested as Queens. I find Westchester has way less traffic than Nassau. 

True but on average the congestion in the Bronx is better. Also depends if you are heading up from the west side of Manhattan as you only then need to clear Riverdale which often is less congested than the rest of the Bronx.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Boston’s is around 49” now. The crushers in the 2010s especially 14-15 helped a lot. 

The eastern 2/3 of Suffolk County should be thought of as New England climate-wise more than Mid Atlantic. It’s really just an extension of S CT and RI. Some North Shore areas from my backyard and east average just as much snow as coastal CT and get impacted by the same types of storms. SW of NYC is Mid Atlantic climate. NYC is really the transition zone that can get blanked and bonanza’d by both storm types which makes our area especially hard to forecast for. 

I feel like the biggest example of this would be when Suffolk got 20”+ in both Juno (Jan 2015) and Jonas (Jan 2016). I think this was the only county/region that got crushed by both storms

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3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Huntington is far western Suffolk so not that far from NYC. Anyway I don’t really get why people NW get so bothered by not being referred to as immediate NYC Metro? Your climo is so drastically different and in a good way for snow lovers. 
 

 

Yup. Orange County is a different climate zone with much greater elevation. LI has a similar climate to NYC, SW CT, NE NJ, etc. 

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