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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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13 minutes ago, Picard said:

:wacko:  Don't think I've ever seen a warning followed by a prediction of 2-8 inches.

Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Sussex, Warren and Morris counties
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris counties.

WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Tuesday.

 

NWS isn't able to make a warning for anything other than those entire counties, so they have to use that in the language. But what would be more helpful would be to say "2 inches on valley floors and 8 inches on ridge tops".

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NWS isn't able to make a warning for anything other than those entire counties, so they have to use that in the language. But what would be more helpful would be to say "2 inches on valley floors and 8 inches on ridge tops".

Understood.  But don't they use different language out west, like "Winter Storm Warning for elevations 5000 feet and above, Winter Weather Advisory for elevations 3000-5000 feet".  As an example.  You probably wouldn't ever issue a Winter Storm Warning for the entirety of Clark County Nevada since it's so large and includes Las Vegas.

Seems like it might be something for NWS to consider for this area when we have scenarios like this one.  Or would our counties be too small to make those distinctions?

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1 minute ago, Picard said:

Understood.  But don't they use different language out west, like "Winter Storm Warning for elevations 5000 feet and above, Winter Weather Advisory for elevations 3000-5000 feet".  As an example.  You probably wouldn't ever issue a Winter Storm Warning for the entirety of Clark County Nevada since it's so large and includes Las Vegas.

Seems like it might be something for NWS to consider for this area when we have scenarios like this one.  Or would our counties be too small to make those distinctions?

They divide Nassau and Suffolk counties into north and south (and actually northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast for Suffolk county) so I don't see why that can't be done for other counties too.

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:wacko:  Don't think I've ever seen a warning followed by a prediction of 2-8 inches.
Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Sussex, Warren and Morris counties
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris counties.
WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT Tuesday.
 

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12 minutes ago, Picard said:

Understood.  But don't they use different language out west, like "Winter Storm Warning for elevations 5000 feet and above, Winter Weather Advisory for elevations 3000-5000 feet".  As an example.  You probably wouldn't ever issue a Winter Storm Warning for the entirety of Clark County Nevada since it's so large and includes Las Vegas.

Seems like it might be something for NWS to consider for this area when we have scenarios like this one.  Or would our counties be too small to make those distinctions?

I believe eastern and western WFOs follow different protocols when issuing advisories/watches/warnings and whatnot. At least that’s what I was told when I was interning at the Albany office

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They divide Nassau and Suffolk counties into north and south (and actually northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast for Suffolk county) so I don't see why that can't be done for other counties too.

It’s geographically way more clear cut here. In Sussex and Morris Counties it’s much more dependent on your elevation in terms of what you often get especially this time of year. So I don’t think you can geographically split the county but you can word the warnings accordingly. In CTP they often word advisories/warnings based on your elevation. 

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33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NWS isn't able to make a warning for anything other than those entire counties, so they have to use that in the language. But what would be more helpful would be to say "2 inches on valley floors and 8 inches on ridge tops".

Farther down in the Winter Storm Warning it states...

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain or a mix of rain and snow will change
  to snow by later this evening. Some heavier snow is possible
  late tonight and Tuesday morning. The greatest snow totals will
  be in the higher elevations mainly above 1000 feet.
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14 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Farther down in the Winter Storm Warning it states...

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain or a mix of rain and snow will change
  to snow by later this evening. Some heavier snow is possible
  late tonight and Tuesday morning. The greatest snow totals will
  be in the higher elevations mainly above 1000 feet.

Gotcha, thanks. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR at hour 18 is markedly less stupid over SNE with low placement than the 18Z HRRR run was at hour 22 so maybe it’s beginning to get an idea.  I could see 00Z runs finally agreeing for the most part 

I would certainly hope so lol. Models clearly didn’t have a clue. 

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44 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Mt. Holly cancels the WSW for Warren and Morris Counties and issues a WWA for these counties.  A new snow map has been issued.

Sussex probably doesn't need the WSW at this point either.  And now we're under a state of emergency according to nj.com

Meanwhile, it's 37 here with light rain and no evidence of snow mixing in yet.

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2 hours ago, Picard said:

Understood.  But don't they use different language out west, like "Winter Storm Warning for elevations 5000 feet and above, Winter Weather Advisory for elevations 3000-5000 feet".  As an example.  You probably wouldn't ever issue a Winter Storm Warning for the entirety of Clark County Nevada since it's so large and includes Las Vegas.

Seems like it might be something for NWS to consider for this area when we have scenarios like this one.  Or would our counties be too small to make those distinctions?

Half of the non weather population struggles to remember what county they are in, I guarantee you hardly any are aware of what specific elevation they are at in this part of the country.  It is a weird communication dynamic for sure.

I live in south Jersey but often work in Union county…3 coworkers live in Sussex county.  When I relay the latest forecast evolution I always mention “higher amounts for the hill people….you know who you are.”

And they do lol.

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