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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I would most definitely take that….

but I’m sure snowman19 is going to just post the snow depth map instead lmao 

IMO have to post both the upside and downside extremes to give people a real sense of what can be expected, otherwise it creates a lot of bias when people only post the models at one end of the extreme. 

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22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 945 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A complex coastal storm will affect the area today through Tuesday night. High pressure then builds into the region Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface low pressure off the North carolina coast this morning will slowly deepen while moving N/NE today. Rains associated with it have already overspread most of the CWA with the exception being Berks county and wrn Chester county PA. Adjustments to pops and wx have been performed for the mid- morning update. For the southern Poconos, temperatures will be colder with (near freezing this morning). These temperatures will be cold enough for snow at the onset. The highest elevations will likely receive 1-4 inches of snow by midday Monday. By this point, temps will start creeping up into the mid 30s as easterly flow brings in warmer air, and with the coverage of advisory level snow expected to be confined to the highest elevations, continued with the decision to not issue an advisory for this early portion of the event. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A strong area of low pressure will be east of the Virginia/North Carolina border this evening, as a secondary low lifts along the New Jersey shore just offshore, and this low will lift towards western Long Island by daybreak Tuesday. Most of the region will be in the warm sector for most of the rain for most of the night, though temperatures in the southern Poconos, especially in the higher elevations of Monroe county, will be cold enough to support all snow. With low pressure beginning to take on a more northeasterly track as it lifts towards western Long Island, cold air advection will develop as winds shift to the north. The rain/snow line will then spread south through the Lehigh Valley and most of northern New Jersey, mainly north of the I-78 corridor, and accumulating snow will develop during this time. Snow then continues to spread south Tuesday morning. The main question is how far south snow will get. Think there may be some light accumulating snow as far south as the Philadelphia metro area and into southern New Jersey, but really not expecting much more than an inch or so from around I-195 south. The primary low over the western Atlantic will lift towards eastern New England Tuesday morning, and then this low will merge with the aforementioned secondary low. Precip continues to wrap around this system into the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey into Tuesday afternoon before ending Tuesday evening. Strong shortwave energy will pass through the region Tuesday night, keeping light accumulating snow, mainly over the northern zones. In terms of snow totals, generally expecting 1 to 2 feet of snow across Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, though the highest snow amounts will be in the higher elevations, and most areas will pick up about 1 foot or so from tonight through Tuesday. From 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible down to the I-78 corridor, mainly from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday. Will go ahead and convert the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, and will also go ahead and add Warren and Morris counties, as the heavier bands of accumulating snow look to spread a bit farther south. The heaviest snow in Morris county will be in the western half of the county, and snow amounts may be minimal across the eastern half of Morris county. For now, do not think Winter Weather Advisories are needed elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient develops over the area between the low and high pressure building in from the west on Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, latest runs of the models seem to have the low a touch farther east, so the gradient is not quite as strong as it looked in prior runs. As a result, expecting northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts, which are just below Wind Advisory criteria. Although a Wind Advisory may end up being needed for the coastal strips, will hold off one one with this package.

 

This is their latest snow map.  I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287).  That might be a stretch.  In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts.

 

ED4B6396-07F7-47D7-8F96-859DEA8DED6B.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This is their latest snow map.  I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287).  That might be a stretch.  In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts.

 

ED4B6396-07F7-47D7-8F96-859DEA8DED6B.jpeg

Morris needs to be split up. No way most of the county gets near warning criteria

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Noob question if a pro can answer. How come the IR sattelite map seems to show heavy clouds over the area but it doesn't reflect on the surface precipitation map? Same with GFS IR and surface precipitation maps. Compare both images.

 

 

IR.png

radar.png

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Morris needs to be split up. No way most of the county gets near warning criteria

Morris County?  How about Warren County?  That’s another one.  I think this reflects the difficulty inherent in the technology they use in terms of issuing a warning for part of the County.  The idea is for the user to look at location specific forecasts which do account for elevation and how that impacts local snow amounts.

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7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This is their latest snow map.  I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287).  That might be a stretch.  In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts.

 

ED4B6396-07F7-47D7-8F96-859DEA8DED6B.jpeg

Cool. Thankyou Tat. I wonder if Upton's map matches up with that? 

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5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Noob question if a pro can answer. How come the IR sattelite map seems to show heavy clouds over the area but it doesn't reflect on the surface precipitation map? Same with GFS IR and surface precipitation maps. Compare both images.

 

 

IR.png

radar.png

Those are high clouds that as you can see largely aren’t producing precip. That panel is after the storm is vertically stacked/occluded which means the mechanisms for lifting air efficiently-divergence aloft and the frontal boundaries near the low are largely gone. So it essentially snows/rains itself out. There is also dry mid level air that has choked off the storm. 

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Detailed Forecast
This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20"

giphy.gif


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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ouch

Ocean getting the same as parts of Sussex and warren

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_10to1-8845600.png

Ruined by this initial inverted trough which pinches off that low over CT. The offshore low gets going too late but in time to nail Boston. The CCB sends us some light slush tomorrow as a final FU. Disaster but expected. 

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. 

Yea the range of uncertainty is a little less here, either 1 inch or all rain.  

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