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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Latest forecast from NWS  seems to have the coast and NYC with a general 2-4 inches, around Newburgh 6-9 inches and up toward Kingston a foot, Monticello area almost 20 inches.

Imo no way the coast and NYC is 2-4 inches. I think through 7 am Tuesday it’s rain and then probably white rain Tuesday or maybe a mix. I’m not seeing anything to believe temps would be near freezing in or near the city. 

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4 hours ago, Picard said:

It'll be interesting to see where the watches/warnings go up and how they align with the final totals in our area.  I'm at exactly 800 feet verified by GPS and topo map.  Parts of Morris County, Jefferson, Oak Ridge, Mount Arlington, are a few hundred feet higher than me, as are other parts of Sparta.  Even a portion of Rockway sits over 1000 feet.  

If anyone remembers March 31 - April 1, 1997.  We had a very elevation driven intense storm up here.  I remember leaving work in Morris Plains to a rain/snow mix, and nothing on the ground, to over a foot with stuck and abandoned cars on Route 15 once I hit the higher parts of Jefferson and into Sparta.  I was a kid all of 22 at the time, driving a stupid Saturn sedan back and forth to work.  I still don't know how I made it home in that thing.

 

I live in Hackettstown and recall that storm. We didn't get anything down here in the valley.. But go up the mountain on rt 46 to Budd Lake and it was like being on another planet with decent snow.

And if I recall correctly, it got warm real quick after that storm and it was gone within a week. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Multiple times. 12/30/00, 2/25/10, 2/1/21, Lindsay Storm 1969, Blizzard of 1888 etc. But yea, this definitely won't be one of them.

west/east rain snow lines do that, they're not extremely rare, but not common either.

It's more common between NYC and Boston, I don't remember the last time it happened between ACY and NYC because they are at nearly the same longitude.

 

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Nope, it's fantasy.

I wish it would happen, but it's in all likelihood not going to. I'm not even that optimistic where I live which is 50 miles NNW of Central Park. Hope I'm wrong.

Not even sure why they're looking at the 3k NAM when it was already pointed out that's the digital zoom of "forecast" models.

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2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Imo no way the coast and NYC is 2-4 inches. I think through 7 am Tuesday it’s rain and then probably white rain Tuesday or maybe a mix. I’m not seeing anything to believe temps would be near freezing in or near the city. 

Probably better for NYC to get less than half an inch and preserve that record

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beb58465b79cf9e5c24a01535852b013.jpg


Euro pulls the rug — at least here in eastern pa — them 12-24 pocono forecasts not looking good


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just this morning Euro pivotal maps had us on the 15-18 inch for the city now it's literally a coating. What happen to this model? GFS is the best model I don't care what anyone says not once has the GFS giving me more than a few slushy inches! Good job GFS, i'll just start looking at GFS from now on! Of course Boston gets clobbered


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Will speculate 2-4" most likely outcome for NYC metro, 4-8" lower Hudson valley, trending to 12-16" Albany.

Mixed sleety falls to eventual all snow, might be only 50% effective at sticking in the urban heat island. 

About 1-2" in central Long Island unless they happen to catch some hefty NNW banding, then 3-5" possible. 

Will become quite windy, NNW 30-50 mph. 

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For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. 

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The euro did so terrible with this storm. 

The Euro and EPS did God awful the last 2 weeks. Terrible. The RGEM/CMC and GFS just schooled it again with this storm, full cave. The NAM is equally as horrific. Yet another “great pattern”, “unbelievable potential”, “buckle up, historic” falls by the way side. 5 months in a row of “potential” with zippo, nada to show for it. This is a 1-2 inch event up here in Rockland, maybe and nothing for NYC, LI. Just like this past weekend. Non event
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32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. 

There were a few stray model runs for the most part that had a good event in NYC. The focus has always been the Catskills over to the Worcester hills. The basic setup is lousy to awful for us down here and we needed the low to bomb early on and consolidate. That very likely won’t happen so this is the outcome we get. It was only a 10% likelihood IMO for anything decent here. Boston/E MA will likely get hit with the departing CCB since a late developing low is fine for them. We’ll probably get some light nonaccumulating snow tomorrow as we watch them get pounded. Agree-this “winter” needs to end ASAP. 

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