March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

So we don’t want a double low? 

Double low with one just off NJ means the inverted trough is ruining our airmass here even more and we waste most of the storm with rain while the main low and dynamics take forever to get going. No that's not what we want. 

[Rjay]

Ok well, the euro was fun 

[mannynyc]

Euro still looks good 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Euro still looks good 

Again a trend towards an earlier consolidated low, so the CCB cranks in time for us. Exactly what we need.

[Rjay]

Lol the nam is funny 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol the nam is funny 

How about the 3K NAM?

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

How about the 3K NAM?

All NAMs are funny

[snowman19]

This storm hasn’t changed since Friday IMO, still an I-84 north special. Little accumulation south of there, really a non event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031206&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

[Rjay]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This storm hasn’t changed since Friday IMO, still an I-84 north special. Little accumulation south of there, really a non event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031206&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

 

On 1/23/2023 at 11:40 PM, snowman19 said:

The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

On 1/21/2023 at 1:04 PM, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry, it’s the operational GFS. You can rest assured nothing even close to that will verify

 

On 11/7/2022 at 7:21 AM, snowman19 said:

The GFS is way too far east/south as usual. Jesus what a God awful model that thing is

 

On 2/25/2022 at 1:07 PM, snowman19 said:

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling 

 

On 2/20/2022 at 1:34 PM, snowman19 said:

The GFS should have this storm figured out sometime Saturday afternoon, once again, it’s a huge outlier at 12z, that model is laughably horrible

 

On 1/13/2022 at 6:08 AM, snowman19 said:

Yep. It’s the GFS being the horrific model it is and chasing convection off shore. That’s why it’s putting the low out there. There is nothing to stop this from cutting inland, there’s no block, the high/confluence move off shore before it gets here, you’re already into return flow before the precip starts and if you look at every other storm so far, they have all trended west/north as we get close to the event

 

On 1/2/2022 at 7:43 PM, snowman19 said:

Yea, I figured the GFS was doing it’s normal, notorious wave spacing screw up….it was the only model showing it. I was wrong lol

 

On 12/30/2021 at 5:48 AM, snowman19 said:

The Grand Fantasy System (GFS) Model has skill scores that are so pathetically low, it ought to be classified as nothing more than wishcasting

 

On 12/5/2021 at 2:04 PM, snowman19 said:

Who cares what the GFS shows? It’s an abysmal, horrible model

 

On 12/5/2021 at 12:01 PM, snowman19 said:

The GFS is laughably horrible. It’s been out in left field since Friday. It’s just finally starting to get a clue now. Full cave to the Euro

 

On 11/13/2021 at 7:03 AM, snowman19 said:

Looks like the GFS is off its rocker again….can’t really say I’m surprised. The upgrade has done nothing apparently. It’s proving the be the most flip-flopping, erratic model out there as evidenced by this….dreadful: 

 

 

On 3/13/2021 at 6:37 PM, snowman19 said:

The old garbage GFS that is so horrendous it’s getting replaced permanently this week? 

 

On 3/8/2021 at 1:29 AM, snowman19 said:

The GFS is the worst model there is, thank God it’s gone for good on St. Patrick’s Day. The 18z run was a hoot, showing “snow” in greater than 540 thicknesses during the day in mid-March. Lmfaooooo 

 

On 12/18/2020 at 12:07 PM, snowman19 said:

Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong

 

On 12/12/2019 at 12:05 PM, snowman19 said:

Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol

 

On 12/30/2020 at 12:06 PM, snowman19 said:

Agree. The GFS has no credibility whatsoever anymore. This is a horrid antecedent airmass and everything would have to literally be 100% perfect, flawless, to get a snowstorm in the metro area. I’ll sell on a snowstorm for Monday

 

On 1/16/2021 at 11:54 AM, snowman19 said:

If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol

I literally could do this all day dude. 

[weathermedic]

OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast.

From this morning’s AFD:

By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to
rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model
guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop
over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will
result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast
may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a
bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal
areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from
sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday.

There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the
transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the
cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening
transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the
Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W
Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool
air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some
southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday.

There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the
area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and
through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to
be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation
lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough
passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for
plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point
should be minimal.

[snowman19]

I literally could do this all day dude. 

It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Happy Daylight Savings Time

[Rjay]

Just now, snowman19 said:

It’s actually a revolutionary idea called “changing my mind”. After the Euro’s wretched performance this winter, I’d say it’s equally as horrible. You change with the times my man. Things change…. Happy Daylight Savings Time

[SnoSki14]

Today's the last day for any meaningful changes. Odds are it'll mostly be a rain event for the coastal plain and low elevations but it's a potent system so who knows. 

[romba]

6z Euro running I’m assuming?

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, romba said:

6z Euro running I’m assuming?

 

[KeithB]

WOW. Another homerun from the euro!

[ILoveWinter]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Wow I'd be thrilled even if those numbers in NYC were halved

[snowman19]

WOW. Another homerun from the euro!

Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1

[Winterweatherlover]

How come the euro is so different from other models? This is such a hard forecast. 

[donsutherland1]

EPS members and NBM data. Note: the NBM takes into consideration ratios. The EPS members are based on 10:1 ratios. Most areas will see ratios of 5:1 to 7:1.

[RU848789]

The NWS in Mt. Holly upped their snowfall totals at 4 am relative to 4 pm yesterday, which is a good sign, as they're usually slow to respond to increases in modeled snowfall, but you can see that the NWS-Upton did not, given the discontinuities at the county interfaces (from 1-2" in Morris/Somerset/Middlesex to <1" across the magical border into Essex/Union/SI.  I think the Mt. Holly numbers are much more reasonable, even if still conservative at this point, which I get, since 0" of snow and all rain are still on the table for these locations.  

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

How come the euro is so different from other models? This is such a hard forecast. 

Euro is going all in with the IVT.  The other models are more focused on the synoptic scale snows which would favor NE.

[RU848789]

Comparison of 6Z/0Z Euro snowfall through 15Z Tuesday (10 am EST/11 am EDT), showing significant improvements for CNJ, NENJ, NYC/LI, which is key since before 15Z has better rates and is before the sun is too high (especially before 12Z), so accumulations are less likely to be melted.

[snowman19]

Euro is going all in with the IVT.  The other models are more focused on the synoptic scale snows which would favor NE.

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

The NWS in Mt. Holly upped their snowfall totals at 4 am relative to 4 pm yesterday, which is a good sign, as they're usually slow to respond to increases in modeled snowfall, but you can see that the NWS-Upton did not, given the discontinuities at the county interfaces (from 1-2" in Morris/Somerset/Middlesex to <1" across the magical border into Essex/Union/SI.  I think the Mt. Holly numbers are much more reasonable, even if still conservative at this point, which I get, since 0" of snow and all rain are still on the table for these locations.  

Mt. Holly is placing more weight on the IVT.  They referenced this in their AFD and it reflects on this map.  Upton has a different take on that.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust. 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

It’s going to be an interesting few days while we find out who will be dead wrong.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

It’s going to be an interesting few days while we find out who will be dead wrong.

This would be a pretty big fail for the euro if it does bust given how consistent it’s been. 

[Winterweatherlover]

I’m going with the expect all rain approach and be pleasantly surprised if we get a surprise. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

You do realize the Nam has it also