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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


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1 hour ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


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The SER has been a pest all winter. This is not always but a frequent reality of La Nina.  NOAA is projecting  a 1.0 + El Nino for next year. I am interested in your thoughts for next winter based on a 1.0 + El Nino.

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2 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


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You seem surprised, nothing new. The Atlantic SST profiles reinforces the WAR , SST distribution in the Pac is changing. Very difficult to get a long duration + PNA. Not to mention a hyper active jet stream, via the West Pac warm pool, which inhibits the + PNA. Expect more of the same in the years ahead. 

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3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


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You don't stay in Purgatory forever. This looks promising.  I recall an east coast snowstorm that hit South Jersey with 4 inches of snow around late March 1997, I think. Think it was rain around here. Buckle up.

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3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


.

La Niña 

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3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.

841d2f65d221f7432faee9ff4122f9fc.jpg


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That da**ed deep western Trough. 

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10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wait a second. i forgot. we are going to see 95 Ninas in the next 110 years. and they will all suck. and maybe 5 Ninos in there, but they will be +3.0 and have the Pacific jet stretching to Iowa. the other ten will have no snow because base state

Funny…except this region struggles to get snow even in good years. It’s only the extremely rare 1-2 a decade years like 96/03/10/14 that snow comes easy. The rest, even ones you probably remember as great in your area, were a struggle with long frustrating periods and lots of fails mixed with a few victories. That was our climo to begin with, without accounting for any degradation. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny…except this region struggles to get snow even in good years. It’s only the extremely rare 1-2 a decade years like 96/03/10/14 that snow comes easy. The rest, even ones you probably remember as great in your area, were a struggle with long frustrating periods and lots of fails mixed with a few victories. That was our climo to begin with, without accounting for any degradation. 

i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited

if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina

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39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know, I was being facetious. either way, next winter seems like the best shot for the MA to get it good in a while. I want to break the spring barrier, but if we're staring down a moderate Nino by June, I will be pretty excited

if we get a moderate Modoki I would say there's a much higher than normal chance for a 30"+ winter for BWI. they're that good. even basin-wide would give a great shot at it. just happy that we're incinerating this multi year Nina

It can't be worse 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Funny to think any weather model can forecast weather accurately more than about 5 days in advance, much less months. When they do, it’s the blind squirrel analogy. Useless waste of time, effort, energy, and money. 

Trying to advance science is a waste of neither time nor resources.

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd argue that it's stastically very unlikely...Takes a lot to go less than an inch 2 years in a row. A cartopper even would be more than 0, lol

Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results.  The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter.

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