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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see I was under the impression the snow periods were more snow (give 2010-16)...and that since we haven't had a snowy period since we're still not sure, lol

Edit: Wait did I miss some sarcasm here?

Some individual years have been more snowy. Mostly when we get a HECS. Those also seem inflated lately. But if you look at longer decadal periods no.  Go back to my post this morning.  

 

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I love this place. Even more when it never snows. B)

Some will talk for days about a natural disaster but analyzing snow data is too much to bear. Lol. 
 

Im a very analytical person. Not everyone is. And that’s ok. I can’t produce beautiful works of art or hit a 3. Everyone has gifts. But I don’t shit all over art that I don’t understand or don’t like. Yet non analytical types will shit all over data analysis even when it’s clear they don’t really comprehend what it’s showing. That part annoys me. 
 

I don’t mind discussing weather even if it’s not what I want. But I don’t only analyze bad snow trends. Only a few years ago I posted a whole thread, literally like 20 posts, analyzing every warning event we’ve ever had and what trends and patterns lead to snow. No one minded that analysts. Oddly no one argued with that data. 
 

I enjoy analyzing weather. I would prefer that analysis was of snow.  But since it’s now snowing the only analysis I can do is “why isn’t it snowing”. 

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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it's kind of a waste of time to draw conclusions from scientific data. Truthiness is always better.

Sample size. Time. I won’t get into this useless argument. The only thing I’ll say is that just because NWS uses 30 years as a climate period, that doesn’t make it climate.

But you guys are right. It’ll always be like this I’m sure. Not sure what winters like 72-73 were. Maybe they were previews. Just like the 60’s were a preview of the coming Ice Age.

Time magazine covers. There’s a mental exercise for you to consider.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s lunacy after this winter that anybody would think there’s validity in ensemble maps past 10 days. Might as well draw it on paper with crayons.

They did fine if you knew how to use them.  Model output isn’t meant to be a plug and play forecast. They are possible permutations. You have to apply some intuition based on knowledge to the equations.  Some of us were never fooled by the chaos induced colder long range looks. The ensembles never broke down the central pac ridge or pac NW trough that was driving the SER. The fact they kept losing the SER was just an error. But if you corrected for that error they did a good job. 

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37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sample size. Time. I won’t get into this useless argument. The only thing I’ll say is that just because NWS uses 30 years as a climate period, that doesn’t make it climate.

But you guys are right. It’ll always be like this I’m sure. Not sure what winters like 72-73 were. Maybe they were previews. Just like the 60’s were a preview of the coming Ice Age.

Time magazine covers. There’s a mental exercise for you to consider.

Was there really a consensus for the ice age idea among the scientific community back then? Or was it mostly speculative? That's a good exercise right there. 

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They did fine if you knew how to use them.  Model output isn’t meant to be a plug and play forecast. They are possible permutations. You have to apply some intuition based on knowledge to the equations.  Some of us were never fooled by the chaos induced colder long range looks. The ensembles never broke down the central pac ridge or pac NW trough that was driving the SER. The fact they kept losing the SER was just an error. But if you corrected for that error they did a good job. 

Exactly.

Emotional expectations based on a specific desired outcome by a weenie attempting to interpret a D10 mean aren't really relevant.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Friday HH on St Patty's day. I'm more green than usual.

And no, fuck green beer. That's not the green I mean.B)

Be careful out there.

Go ahead and fire it up boss! You’ve done great work this season. Time to turn the lights out around here 

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25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Wish this was like 2-3 weeks earlier…

Jokes aside there’s actually a really large signal for a storm around 28th.

1beea7f990700db8d6c61bcba81094b2.jpg


.

Yeah and that trough is still dumping into the west coast. 

Let’s just hit the reset button and get it done with. 

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16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah and that trough is still dumping into the west coast. 

Let’s just hit the reset button and get it done with. 

Me thinks that's already happening in the ENSO :lol: (although exactly what we're resetting to is another question altogether, lol)

And since according to you I never post anything of significance...I'll at least post a link about enso:

P.S. I'm a little wary because he said the weenie buzz words of 2002 and 2009, but, nevertheless...

 

 

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Me thinks that's already happening in the ENSO :lol: (although exactly what we're resetting to is another question altogether, lol)

And since according to you I never post anything of significance...I'll at least post a link about enso:

P.S. I'm a little wary because he said the weenie buzz words of 2002 and 2009, but, nevertheless...

 

 

The gulf and NW atlantic are so warm though. Wondering if we have any good comps for that plus -pdo/+enso

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There’s been a “signal” for a storm from days 10-1,000,000 all winter long. When that date gets to day 7, the storm signal won’t be there. So ignore what the ensembles ACTUALLY show, decide what they SHOULD show, and then say in ten days that they did a good job.

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Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

I saw a male mosquito flying around my patio last night just after dusk.  Now that's something worth chasing! :P

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