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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno man, it was a -2.5 std dv block just 3 days ago. And that is what set off the pattern change. Yea it’s slowly fading now and will be waxing and waning bit slowly dissipating overall for the next 2 weeks. But that’s normal. A block is rarely going to maintain a crazy standard deviation for that long. It is an anomaly. The heat bubble that is the block is usually going to cool and weaken over time after the wave break or SSW that creates it wanes.  If we need a 3 std block to maintain itself for weeks on end to get snow…. Again this is a matter of degrees. Yea if the block was some historic anomaly it maybe could bully things more in our favor. But we’ve snowed in the past with much less. I really don’t get it. We keep failing in different ways in looks that I know from experience are historically pretty good and the only common thread is one thing…it’s too warm. But everyone else is like “no it’s cause the high was 20 Miles too far north, then the trough axis wasn’t perfect, then it’s cause there want some cross polar arctic blast, then we didn’t have some -20 stdv block”. I mean come on.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

There are only a few hits at 18Z.  Let’s see how tomorrow goes.  There just is not enough cold air.

Lol. Let's just go to spring. 

Don't know why I thought March would be any different than January or February .:axe:

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. Let's just go to spring. 

Don't know why I thought March would be any different than January or February .:axe:

Well before it was too warm and the pattern was bad so storms were tracking 500 miles north of us. Now the pattern is great, storms are tracking where we want but it’s just too warm. 

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It’s March

It’s snowed in march. Numerous times. It’s march 2023 though This SERIOUSLY blows. We’re likely about to watch NYC (more likely the immediate suburbs) up to BOS get crushed. Possibly twice.

I’m honestly thinking about taking the trip up to my folks house starting this weekend to be there for winter’s last hoorah next week. I have off from work for the entire week. Might as well.

If the latest euro is correct, wowza. It tracked wave 2 from the benchmark to just south of LI before getting captured and looping offshore for 12+ hours. The low bombs out south of LI down to 970ish millibars. The city could have some temp issues, but the immediate suburbs of NY into SNE would likely get crushed. It has a different evolution, but the GFS also dumps nearly a foot from the nearby suburbs into SNE. ICON was very weird with its evolution but same result. They even get 3-5” from wave 1 on the GFS. Lucky bastards man.
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