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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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24 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I want to buy wave 2. 

Very subtle spatial and timing differences between the key pieces of energy compared to 12z. The upshot is the southern piece of vorticity is a tad flatter/further south, so the area of precip is focused souther. And a tad colder. Still seems like this may be on its way to something (different). Gotta watch the timing/dig of the NS vort dropping in over MN.

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

3rd wave...GFS about to destroy us....with rain

It's close to something better. Have a feeling when all is said and done all 3 of these waves will have been closer than any of the predecessors, but probably not enough, esp for the lowlands. Would be a fitting end lol.

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Hate, if you want to hate
If it keeps you safe
If it makes you brave
 
Take, if you want a slice
If you want a piece
If it feels alright
 
Don't come over here
And piss on my gate
Save it just keep it off my wave
 
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave, my wave
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave, my wave
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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:
Hate, if you want to hate
If it keeps you safe
If it makes you brave
 
Take, if you want a slice
If you want a piece
If it feels alright
 
Don't come over here
And piss on my gate
Save it just keep it off my wave
 
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave, my wave
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave
Keep it off my wave, my wave

Soundgarden did it right.

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It doesn’t matter what longwave pattern we get when there is no cold air anywhere!!!  But please tell me again how it’s the exact location of the high that’s the problem. 

CFS seasonal almost never has any blue on anomaly plots many months out. Its all relative. Then there is the awful TT graphics.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is why the wave tracks under us. 

D2ADA98A-5240-4B34-BF84-80FBB6C9228B.thumb.jpeg.510de48d1939de22cc783a3b286be7e0.jpeg

The block X displaced Y which causes the wave to dig instead of lift like every other pac wave.  But a HL ridge can’t make the airmass under it any colder. 

Not displaced far enough south.:ph34r:

Thus the need for a bigger block! These wimpy fake ass blocks won't work anymore.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CFS seasonal almost never has any blue on anomaly plots many months out. Its all relative. Then there is the awful TT graphics.

I was exaggerating but the reason there is no blue on many long range seasonal products is they can’t decide where to put the cold and because it’s outnumbered in areal coverage like 60/40 or worse all the blue gets eliminated when the smoothing happens. In reality there will be some blue somewhere. But it’s also still indicative of how the odds are increasingly stacked against us.  I’m not arguing it can’t snow anymore. I know it can and will. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I was exaggerating but the reason there is no blue on many long range seasonal products is they can’t decide where to put the cold and because it’s outnumbered in areal coverage like 60/40 or worse all the blue gets eliminated when the smoothing happens. In reality there will be some blue somewhere. But it’s also still indicative of how the odds are increasingly stacked against us.  I’m not arguing it can’t snow anymore. I know it can and will. 

Still want to see what happens here when we get an "ideal Nino". Maybe next winter. Outside of that, I generally root for -EPO/+PNA w/ cross polar flow and legit cold, progressive pattern, and hope for an outcome just like last Jan/Jan 17/Jan 18.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not displaced far enough south.:ph34r:

Thus the need for a bigger block! These wimpy fake ass blocks won't work anymore.

Dunno man, it was a -2.5 std dv block just 3 days ago. And that is what set off the pattern change. Yea it’s slowly fading now and will be waxing and waning bit slowly dissipating overall for the next 2 weeks. But that’s normal. A block is rarely going to maintain a crazy standard deviation for that long. It is an anomaly. The heat bubble that is the block is usually going to cool and weaken over time after the wave break or SSW that creates it wanes.  If we need a 3 std block to maintain itself for weeks on end to get snow…. Again this is a matter of degrees. Yea if the block was some historic anomaly it maybe could bully things more in our favor. But we’ve snowed in the past with much less. I really don’t get it. We keep failing in different ways in looks that I know from experience are historically pretty good and the only common thread is one thing…it’s too warm. But everyone else is like “no it’s cause the high was 20 Miles too far north, then the trough axis wasn’t perfect, then it’s cause there want some cross polar arctic blast, then we didn’t have some -20 stdv block”. I mean come on.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno man, it was a -2.5 std dv block just 3 days ago. And that is what set off the pattern change. Yea it’s slowly fading now and will be waxing and waning bit slowly dissipating overall for the next 2 weeks. But that’s normal. A block is rarely going to maintain a crazy standard deviation for that long. It is an anomaly. The heat bubble that is the block is usually going to cool and weaken over time after the wave break or SSW that creates it wanes.  If we need a 3 std block to maintain itself for weeks on end to get snow…. Again this is a matter of degrees. Yea if the block was some historic anomaly it maybe could bully things more in our favor. But we’ve snowed in the past with much less. I really don’t get it. We keep failing in different ways in looks that I know from experience are historically pretty good and the only common thread is one thing…it’s too warm. But everyone else is like “no it’s cause the high was 20 Miles too far north, then the trough axis wasn’t perfect, then it’s cause there want some cross polar arctic blast, then we didn’t have some -20 stdv block”. I mean come on.  

I was actually just having a little fun with the HH run, and doing the Jaws thing. You should have just laughed and moved on lol.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still want to see what happens here when we get an "ideal Nino". Maybe next winter. Outside of that, I generally root for -EPO/+PNA w/ cross polar flow and legit cold, progressive pattern, and hope for an outcome just like last Jan/Jan 17/Jan 18.

That rarely actually works in the grand sense. It might lead to one or two lucky hits but we are never getting a HECS or a 30”+ winter that way and those are what I root for. 

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