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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in  flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw.  That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. 

euro day 10 has your warm snowstorm

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both feature a perfect longwave configuration. West based -NAO, 50/50, trough digging to our west and SS dominant. Probably won’t be cold enough but that’s another issue unrelated to the pattern.

Astronomical Spring?

 

For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real?

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36 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Astronomical Spring?

 

For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real?

The pattern is real. I never hyped wave 1. Said it’s starting too far north. But it did get suppressed to the point it secondaries to our south. But with no cold the primary starting out to our NW is no good unless it bombs. 
 

The next wave takes a pretty good track. Just not cold enough. The pattern matches our best march snows!   Imo the pattern hasn’t failed. It’s exactly what we hoped. Do I expect there to be more threats with good track systems between March 17-25 yes. Do I have any confidence they end up snow?  No. Frankly I’m not confident we can snow easily in any pattern that requires a N Amer domestic airmass to be cold enough.  I’ve seen no evidence of it lately. Has anyone else?  When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016?  I seriously can’t remember the last time DC got like 4” of snow from some wave that tracked south of them in a typical domestic airmass. I can list dozens from the past but can’t think of any in a long long time. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016?  I seriously can’t remember the last time DC got like 4” of snow from some wave that tracked south of them in a typical domestic airmass. I can list dozens from the past but can’t think of any in a long long time. 

Wouldn't last January count?

 

(but definitely agree though)

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Euro gets purple over my house between now and the 15th. That’s something I guess

My parents in SENY get dumped on with 24+. Of course.

Said this a week or two ago. Lived in the lower Hudson valley for 25+ years. This setup, late season especially, is almost always a slam dunk for them. We need some serious luck here to score big on waves 2,3, and I guess 4? (22nd-23rd) Not impossible I guess but man, it’d be torture to watch NYC get 2+ feet as we get white rain.

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19 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Wouldn't last January count?

 

(but definitely agree though)

No there was a true arctic airmass from an epo ridge…yes it was very warm south of the boundary before the storm started but that’s just true all the time now. There is no kimda warm.  It’s a torch south of every boundary lately. And DC never got that cold because it never got far into the airmass But the reason that had such a sharp cutoff north was the dry arctic air pressing down on wave. 

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I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in  flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw.  That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and should need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. 

It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now.

7c914e07a22db365437d40c9010ca211.jpg


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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016?  

17-18 and 18-19 had a couple of these, but considering that those are the only examples since pre 15-16, it doesn't bode well. The only consolation of all of this is what I mentioned a while back in your thread where -EPO/+PNA driven patterns seem to be snowier than they used to be before. Like how people assumed 13-14 was an uber lucky fluke given that predominant pattern but then Jan-March 2015 happened. It'll never make up for the snowfall deficit from lost margins on our more typical patterns, but it's the very least of note for when we're dealt those patterns (which given our incoming -PDO might not be that helpful.. although I did read that the current-PDO regime might've started in the 2000s? Hopefully that's the case.)

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now.

7c914e07a22db365437d40c9010ca211.jpg


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I wasn’t comparing this to 58. I was pointing out 58 was highly flawed with a primary near Chicago, an h5 track through PA, and no arctic air. And we got snow!  
 

Yea the high isn’t perfect. Yea the phase isn’t ideal. But a 985 low tracks just east of OC and most get no snow at all. When I examined every 4”+ snow at BWI years ago almost none were perfect. Only the crazy 1996 type storms had everything textbook right. And even some pretty damn big storms didn’t. But a flaw or two used to mean we get 3-6” instead of 12”+. So I roll my eyes when we go wave after wave with no snow at all and somehow each time it’s this one thing or that one thing. It didn’t used to be that hard to get some snow! 

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Kinda negative given todays 12z was the highest probability of 1” at BWI all winter. 78% using my combined formula. 

Most folks are 18 times bitten, twice shy!  Lol

I am all in on these waves in the next two weeks, though.  Why not?  It is the best look we have had all winter, so it doesn’t make sense to quit tracking now.

After that, I am out and hoping for warm weather and outdoor time.

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