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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind?

1678719600-T4eQF8tqWAo.png

850s for DC and NW actually never go below 0, but it doesn't matter if the thermals are torched. Crazy how we've gone through the November-March timeframe dealing with mid 30s rainstorms 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

850s for DC and NW actually never go below 0, but it doesn't matter if the thermals are torched. Crazy how we've gone through the November-March timeframe dealing with mid 30s rainstorms 

Yeah I was surprised to look at the 00z EURO and see it showing a bit of a storm for 95-west. Guess it wasn't brought up last night. This is a step back from that actually but still "interesting" I guess. Not smart enough to figure out if there is any way for us to steal some more cold air or if we just need this to bomb out/amp up/something like that.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m going more with the whole period from about 12 days forward. Look at its forecast from less than 3 days ago for Friday morning. It had the low on the Iowa Minnesota border 

Yea...this is the GFS for Friday night now

1129758052_6zSaturday.thumb.png.fb47f7ffbc78a2c5792a6b8dff304a0a.png

This is what it showed when it was still 7 days away...

7daysout.thumb.png.d9473934bf18d5346595b5e942bd8042.png

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30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1678489200-en2zRQVYjmc.png

 

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind?

1678719600-T4eQF8tqWAo.png

This is different...the fact there is snow in the vicinity...and the low isn't 300 miles NW of us...is the pattern change.  The fact its too warm is NOT specific to this pattern, that has been a problem a LOT in a lot of patterns over the last 8 years or so...yes I am including 2016 because there was one absolutely perfect track rainstorm that year in Feb also...I got 8" of slop up here but it should have been a 6-10" snowstorm for everyone given the track and time of year but the boundary temps were just too warm.    If this fails to produce the amount of snow we want it isn't the pattern failing...the temp fail is not specific to this pattern.  

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah I was surprised to look at the 00z EURO and see it showing a bit of a storm for 95-west. Guess it wasn't brought up last night. This is a step back from that actually but still "interesting" I guess. Not smart enough to figure out if there is any way for us to steal some more cold air or if we just need this to bomb out/amp up/something like that.

The only way for it to work given what is now the obvious characteristics of the airmass is for what happens up off NYC to happen 150 miles further south.  If the storm were to bomb off the VA capes and stall near OC it would dynamically cool the DC area enough to get some snow in the CCB.  Whether that can realistically happen...its a rather large ask but not impossible given the blocking in this situation.  But we need the most extreme solution to happen and we know from experience that is not where you want to be.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The only way for it to work given what is now the obvious characteristics of the airmass is for what happens up off NYC to happen 150 miles further south.  If the storm were to bomb off the VA capes and stall near OC it would dynamically cool the DC area enough to get some snow in the CCB.  Whether that can realistically happen...its a rather large ask but not impossible given the blocking in this situation.  But we need the most extreme solution to happen and we know from experience that is not where you want to be.  

Looking at the 6z ens the 12z OP would've been the most extreme member so I'm curious if we don't see a meager improvement. Think something more dynamic can only help us. If not it's still fun to root for something wicked for someone.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm very interested in the correlation PSU showed. That was one of the best pattern correlations I've seen! There's no way we miss out! Too bad we can't see how well computer models would have done leading up to the 1950s and 1960s March storms.

But most of those big March snow analogs were from the 50's and 60's...its legitimate to wonder if those same patterns would produce the same results now.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But most of those big March snow analogs were from the 50's and 60's...its legitimate to wonder if those same patterns would produce the same results now.  

For what it's worth I went back and read some on the 1958 storm. D.C. was just above 4" while nw had over a foot.

Correction: D.C. was just under 5" and BWI had 8.4".

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18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look how far north the primary was!

March 1958 Winter Storm.jpeg

I really don’t want to go down this path anymore, we still have hope we can do this later…but if we did get a 58 repeat today it would probably fail and people would say “but the h5 track was to our north and the primary got to Chicago and there was no epo help so the airmass was too warm” not realizing 58 overcame all that AND we use to snow in  flawed setups all the time. Probably 80% of all those storms I case studied had some flaw.  That’s why I go mad when we have one decent setup after another fail during our least snowy period ever and each time someone picks apart that flaw that will invariably be there in any storm as the reason it didn’t snow as if we are Atlanta and should need every single thing to be 100% perfect to snow. 

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