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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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Just woke up briefly for a model peek. Crazy we had to wait until after the event had already started to get some model consensus. I probably sucker hole some here though, too far SE/too low elevation for first part and too far W for meat of CCB later.

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38 minutes ago, RikC said:

Yup, BOX upgrades BOS NE to warnings. Guess they’re finally buying the CCB in the afternoon. 
Hoping for a few hours of blizzard conditions before it gets dark 

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990mb aint gonna cut it east of ACK. 

This was modeled in the low 970's at one point in the same location . more dynamic, and colder as a result along EMA. Instead we got a dong in CT and a primary low that doesn't fully mature until in the Gulf of Maine. meh

But congrats to those in NMA and elsewhere - it was always going to rake up there. 

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The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

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8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

Gives another inch of QPF after 11am for ORH eastward down into N half of RI. Southern part gets over a half inch but has to wait for dryslot to sink south. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gives another inch of QPF after 11am for ORH eastward down into N half of RI. Southern part gets over a half inch but has to wait for dryslot to sink south. 

Yeah, just feels like someone is going to get a surprise 4"-8" out of this where 1-3" or 2-4" is being forecasted....

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The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

I was just in the west end of Marshfield on the coastal plain and it’s definitely trying to flip


.
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http://www.weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=goes&area=eusa&type=visible

 

Center making the turn into a loop from 42N 67W, current direction NNW. From check of buoy reports, all in western Gulf of Maine have either steady or slowly falling temps, so capture must be imminent. 

Would expect coastal R-S line to retreat offshore north of Quincy MA and slow changes further south in se MA as colder surface layers begin to surround the approaching and looping low. Don't think it grazes the coast later, might just reach 70W offshore by 00z before drifting east again around 03z. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

And 5 hours makes a big difference.  HRRR now has the low about 100 miles east of where it was previously modeled when I posted over the next few hours, out east of Chatham rather than crossing the canal.  Probably means less snow for my location, maybe an inch if we're lucky...

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