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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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That BOX map is really curious. Basically going against all model guidance for eastern MA. Especially north of the pike. I can’t imagine trying to forecast this storm right now. I’m happy enough not to have any plans tomorrow that hinged on 2 versus 18 inches. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even Kuchera map is trying to give you like 10" in 6 hours, lol

High stakes for eastern SNE (among CT and other places with this storm). "non-linear" changes as you put it is so appropriate. It really wouldn't take much for a widespread 8-12" for eastern SNE, but we need that IVT lobe to fade faster. As is, we're now biting nails to see how quickly the main surface low takes over and where it slings up.

Trying to figure out things we can pay attention to nowcast... one thing might be 925mb winds over LI pre-dawn Tues... if they have a more easterly component than southeasterly, the bigger scenarios are on the table. If they still have a strong southerly component, not good.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like a bit of a waste of resources, but I don’t write the checks. 

They probably have just as much interest as we do as to why the models can't figure this one out in a more agreeable way.  Perhaps extra data can assist... The storm is going to be affecting several million people in some way.

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Just now, MuddyWx said:

anyone know how they assimilate this collected data so that it's available for models? like when would models ingest/use this new data?

If it’s anything like tropical I think it’d be 00z, which isn’t particularly helpful for the GP because forecasts are out…and they’re overnight runs.

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