weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, joey2002 said: UKmet up there in second place ahead of the GFS but it doesn’t usually get treated that way. It always has been #2 but it seems to be erratic in NOAM. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Huh? What is clustered? I'm so confused by this entire post. It'll all be over soon Jerry then we snow Winter 23-24 , promise. Yeah this winter has taught me one thing again-"you don't need a weatherman to know the way the wind blows". (credit Bob Dylan). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 the concept of chaos theory tells us that we wil never be able to accurately model the weather. Even with a sensor measuring everyting related to the weather 1m up, left and right, in a grid all around the world enough could go on within that framework to change everything. See Edward lorenz, sensitive dependence on initial conditons. Fluid dynamics. diffeq. Theres not enough computing power to do it. Maybe quantum computers that can have bits both 1 and 0 can solve this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: exactly As said many times in this forum, no one lives at 500mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RikC Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: the concept of chaos theory tells us that we wil never be able to accurately model the weather. Even with a sensor measuring everyting related to the weather 1m up, left and right, in a grid all around the world enough could go on within that framework to change everything. Fluid dynamics. diffeq. Theres not anough computing power to do it. Maybe quantum computers that can have bits both 1 and 0 can solve this. and Y2Q (google it) is just a few years away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Here's my final call, somewhat more bullish than some (now that word bullish of course is 87.5% of another word) ... I don't have a map but you'll get the idea, same general pattern as Ray only larger amounts of snow in the mix. Will call them from northeast to southwest for no particular reason. BGR 8.0 ... PWM 10.5 ... CON 13.5 ... RAY himself 11.0 ... BOS 8.0 ... seMA 2-4 ... ORH 18.2 ... PVD 4.5 ... KEV 11.5 ... BDL 7.0 (Springfield MA about 8), BDR 2.5 ... PSF 15.0 ... ALB 14.5 ... BGM 6.5 ... POU 7.0 ... MMU 5.0 ... NYC 1.5 ... ISP 1.0 ... EWR 3.0 (also BTV 5-8, would totally agree with Ray on his depictions in NH, VT otherwise) Frequent thunder-snow likely in e MA and thunder-sleet in CT, RI. Peak gusts 50-70 mph but possibly 80-90 around Scituate. One unified center in Gulf of Maine pulling in a weak reflection of 500 mb associated low which is now in WI-MI but appears likely to ripple forward to s ON, ne NY and w MA before losing identity. If the Euro has anything vastly different to say, I'm done anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, RikC said: and Y2Q (google it) is just a few years away I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: the concept of chaos theory tells us that we wil never be able to accurately model the weather. Even with a sensor measuring everyting related to the weather 1m up, left and right, in a grid all around the world enough could go on within that framework to change everything. See Edward lorenz, sensitive dependence on initial conditons. Fluid dynamics. diffeq. Theres not enough computing power to do it. Maybe quantum computers that can have bits both 1 and 0 can solve this. then there would be a much reduced thread and probably no weather forum, is there an astronomy forum where people debate the time of sunrise? No. Something that well predicted requires no discussion, or even banter. This may never become an exact science. It's like human behavior maybe, you can make some skilled general predictions, but not a totally reliable outlook for somebody's future conduct. Also, soon after perfect prediction would come weather control. Do we really want that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, joey2002 said: It’s not a perfect science, but 7 day forecasts are as accurate now as 3 day forecasts were a few decades ago ha that might be true as you stated it but that isnt saying much, see this winter. which is why I look at any climate model skeptically. I dont deny climate change, but I deny their models. We cant say whats going to happen next week, let alone months or years from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Can anybody else get in on the fun other than E Mass? God it was old 5 yrs ago, it’s downright ridiculous now. Yup. I used to get so upset but I went back to the Kocin/Ucellini ❄️❄️ book and over time the Eastern Mass thing happened a lot and so did the NNJ/NYC/LI jackpots. I learned that over the years the Springfield area was almost always a minimum. What made it harder the last 18 years was having all this access to reports and radar etc and really living it. You're in a much better spot than I am. I grew up in central CT. Even Ryan does much better than this part of the lower valley but can't compare to eastern areas. Now they occasionally suffer more severe temporary snow droughts but then they make up for it in spades. For whatever reason we don't get the old school Miller A storms much at all anymore or clipper type systems that bomb right off NJ and south of LI. Those storms could really wallop your area. These later capture Miller B types which have been the norm all too often get the goods going from ORH on east or southeast/northeast. After 18 winters I don't average 50 inches a season. 40 to 45. When I lived in Bristol CT the avg was about 55. You're a great poster. I know it sucks. Who knows maybe trends will reverse some for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: then there would be a much reduced thread and probably no weather forum, is there an astronomy forum where people debate the time of sunrise? No. Something that well predicted requires no discussion, or even banter. This may never become an exact science. It's like human behavior maybe, you can make some skilled general predictions, but not a totally reliable outlook for somebody's future conduct. Also, soon after perfect prediction would come weather control. Do we really want that? Sorry that's a bad anology, astronomy changes far less than a column of air surrounding the earth. It's like that office episode where dwight has an update on a 1000 yr old martial art. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 sorry didnt mean to distract everyone from snow. I hope you all get it!!! You deserve it!!! I hope it falls in buckets for everyone in CT and Mass. Everyone else can go f themselves. Ok RI, nh and ME can have some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Spoke too soon about the second half of the 00z guidance. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro gets Eastern Mass good. Nice hit this run. Nice to have Euro on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Really nice results for most guidance for AEMATT. Euro slams us pretty good here. Pivotal maps give BOS 12+ with higher numbers north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Astronomy requires complex predictions, the difference is that theories of gravitation allow those predictions to be quite accurate. If we had equations that governed atmospheric behavior on all time scales, then we could do what astronomers can do (and I'm aware that there are areas of astronomy that are still undergoing debate and testing of competing theories). We really know next to nothing about atmospheric variation other than the statistics of it. For example, we can make a fairly accurate prediction that there might be 20 to 30 hot days in a summer but trying to predict which 20 or 30 they would be is essentially a random exercise at 90 days. So that tells me we don't know what specifically causes the variations we know are coming. And of course in some particular seasons we are surprised by the outcome even in general terms. I happen to think some of the answers to these questions are hidden in tidal forces that we have yet to understand to the same precision as ocean tide forecasting. Other answers are buried in solar variability and solar system magnetic field behavior. And if we ever cracked the code then it would lead to quasi-accurate long-range forecasting but the details of systems would remain hazy and these discussions would still occur even though people might know well in advance that a system like this one was coming. Then you get into things like the exact tracks of tornadoes, exact landfall spots of hurricanes, etc. We might get 90% of the way to the goal but would still be tracking such things in real time. Or maybe intelligent aliens will arrive and tell us exactly what's up, as they fatten us up for lunch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Spoke too soon about the second half of the 00z guidance. Oh well. After seeing the 00Z suite and specifically the EC, i feel good about our map, in fact i even think it may be too high. Hopefully tomorrow trends better but i doubt it. Id be shocked if those watched in Fairfield, New Haven, Hartford dont get converted to advisories, the rest im guessing will be warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Astronomy requires complex predictions, the difference is that theories of gravitation allow those predictions to be quite accurate. If we had equations that governed atmospheric behavior on all time scales, then we could do what astronomers can do (and I'm aware that there are areas of astronomy that are still undergoing debate and testing of competing theories). We really know next to nothing about atmospheric variation other than the statistics of it. For example, we can make a fairly accurate prediction that there might be 20 to 30 hot days in a summer but trying to predict which 20 or 30 they would be is essentially a random exercise at 90 days. So that tells me we don't know what specifically causes the variations we know are coming. And of course in some particular seasons we are surprised by the outcome even in general terms. I happen to think some of the answers to these questions are hidden in tidal forces that we have yet to understand to the same precision as ocean tide forecasting. Other answers are buried in solar variability and solar system magnetic field behavior. And if we ever cracked the code then it would lead to quasi-accurate long-range forecasting but the details of systems would remain hazy and these discussions would still occur even though people might know well in advance that a system like this one was coming. Then you get into things like the exact tracks of tornadoes, exact landfall spots of hurricanes, etc. We might get 90% of the way to the goal but would still be tracking such things in real time. Or maybe intelligent aliens will arrive and tell us exactly what's up, as they fatten us up for lunch tomorrow. We should hang out, but I really didnt mean to hijack this thread and there's some kind of storm coming apparently. I may get a few inches I may get 10. But I want to reiterate, I want everyone in sne to get pounded. They deserve it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Euro looks very similar to Rays final call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: After seeing the 00Z suite and specifically the EC, i feel good about our map, in fact i even think it may be too high. Hopefully tomorrow trends better but i doubt it. Id be shocked if those watched in Fairfield, New Haven, Hartford dont get converted to advisories, the rest im guessing will be warnings. They should definitely be advisories. Not nearly enough confidence to get anywhere close to warning level. Conservative is the way to go here, especially in S CT. I’m still modestly confident we end up with something plowable in the interior, but honestly I just want this waiting crap to be over and see what falls. It’s absolutely an outlier, but the HREF stayed bullish at 00z. The high res is doing just enough to keep me intrigued imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I just hope to have snow to shovel, and some coffee to drink afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They should definitely be advisories. Not nearly enough confidence to get anywhere close to warning level. Conservative is the way to go here, especially in S CT. I’m still modestly confident we end up with something plowable in the interior, but honestly I just want this waiting crap to be over and see what falls. It’s absolutely an outlier, but the HREF stayed bullish at 00z. The high res is doing just enough to keep me intrigued imby. Thats surprising coming from the HREF. I just don't buy much accumulation during the day Tuesday for a lot of the state outside of the NW/NE hills. I'd gladly take 6-8" here though, but that's not happening. Watches went to warnings for tolland and windham but watch remains for Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Hartford county is right on the line still. Pretty wild. Nothing figured out last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 hours ago, bristolri_wx said: The herp has some big winners and big losers (coastal plain)... That looks very close to what I’ve been thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6z NAM still hits low elevations of northern CT, and eastern MA with a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 After seeing everything the GFS, Reggie, NAM, GGEM are in good agreement. It is game on . I am amped up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Low isn’t escaping east as much on 06z NAM so it really goes to town tomorrow. Full blown blizzard for eastern areas. Def gets further west much better too than the 00z run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6z HRRR is very good too. Looks like it's printing 12" in Hartford. 16" near Waterbury. Something near 15" Kev. 6-12" E MA and still snowing near the end of the run's reach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Low isn’t escaping east as much on 06z NAM so it really goes to town tomorrow. Full blown blizzard for eastern areas. Def gets further west much better too than the 00z run. The 3k is pornographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I was waiting to see my dews and temp this morning at wake up. It needed to be in the 20’s for dews and I like what I see. Some of those statewide CT lower totals need to be upped. Even valley and shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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