Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[UnitedWx]

6Z GFS is trending less of a hit Saturday, although still there, to a cutter for the next storm...

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

6Z GFS is trending less of a hit Saturday, although still there, to a cutter for the next storm...

It’s not out yet.

[CoastalWx]

Weekend deal seems off the table. Then I guess we’ll see whatever the next one does a couple days later. Hopefully not stalling over BDL like the euro has. 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, wife and kids are with fam over seas for several weeks right now, so let me know if you head up this way.

You should be sleeping then. Lol. 

[Kitz Craver]

Saturday is trending away from us and now we are putting all of our eggs into a potential that is a week away. Again. The winter of bliss continues…

[Damage In Tolland]

A few folks mentioned yesterday, it was going to be one or the other and not both. My guess is the GEFS/ GPS camp is correct with the weekend storm being a moderate storm , and then nothing next week.

[UnitedWx]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not out yet.

Apparently neither is my consciousness  probably should go back to bed LOL

[Johnno]

Bob Maxon giving a nice model break down for the public this morning for weekend and Tuesday, chucking a few 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ya euro/Ukie hundreds of miles SE for any system this weekend . We still tossing 

gfs tickling south 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Saturday is trending away from us and now we are putting all of our eggs into a potential that is a week away. Again. The winter of bliss continues…

It has been a non winter for much of the eastern half of the US....

[jaf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Weekend deal seems off the table. Then I guess we’ll see whatever the next one does a couple days later. Hopefully not stalling over BDL like the euro has. 

Looks like the 6z GFS has nothing

[moneypitmike]

I look to 3/15 as the point of not-likely return for winter events.  Of course we have many in the historical record to illustrate examples of post 3/15 events--but climo says opportunities will be progressively harder to come by.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

Euro loves to phase miller B’s too early. This has Jan15 vibes but the Weekend deal moved around so much and slipped away at d4 that I’ll just keep this on the back burner until that range.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro loves to phase miller B’s too early. This has Jan15 vibes but the Weekend deal moved around so much and slipped away at d4 that I’ll just keep this on the back burner until that range.  

Yup…..I have a feeling we have a better chance to miss em both. This rarely works out. But at least we’re tracking. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…..I have a feeling we have a better chance to miss em both. This rarely works out. But at least we’re tracking. 

The clock is ticking even in SNE and models are all over the place.

[brooklynwx99]

I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up

that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…..I have a feeling we have a better chance to miss em both. This rarely works out. But at least we’re tracking. 

We’ve seen how systems can trend in the d4-d5 range so everything is on the table at this point but with a spiking pna and decaying nao, the KU potential is there for anyone in the northeast.

[Chris12WX]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean, it's not uncommon for a weaker, more progressive wave to establish a baroclinic zone / confluence for a larger, more cohesive follow-up

that's pretty much what the EPS and CMC (and ENS) have trended towards

Will gladly sacrifice the weekend deal for next week.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hopefully we get something because models look cold.  Won’t be fun to have BN temps and nothing to show for it but heating bills. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

Hurricane Hunters flying EPac 'atmospheric river' missions for 0Z data on the 9th and 10th.  They might sample that while still offshore.  26,000 foot ceiling, they would be able to sample 500 mb level.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A few folks mentioned yesterday, it was going to be one or the other and not both. My guess is the GEFS/ GPS camp is correct with the weekend storm being a moderate storm , and then nothing next week.

It's okay ... you can self-promote.  I saw your post haha

no but I've been privately musing that we could actually miss both. I'm sure that thoughts crossed a few radars, huh        nah....  (lol)

It doesn't sit well with me as of this morning - none of it.  The original signal was/is real, despite the lack of confidence in any of these mere phantasms we've so far seen manifested in the models.  It's annoying... the potential is large, any one of these solutions can't be ignored, but then as time and new model runs go buy ... consummately proves they all should be. ... And yet all the while, the signal is still there and just as impressively coherent.

It's hit media circuits! I like that CT guy a few posts ago, because of the concision.  Saturday ... or Tuesday.  Meanwhile, CNN has a headline on their website talking about the cold anomaly for the U.S. with possible snow in the M/A ...

I mean wtf with the utter lack of model performance. Still no difference in confidence on anything.

And fact of the matter is, if there was a bigger dawg in this, uuuusually those bigger affairs show up in the guidance and have staying power despite run to run permutation.  Not seeing that.  These are - maybe ...just saying maybe here - signs for me to really just remain skeptical, despite that overwhelming signal.  They don't always produce.  We haven't had a lot of signals this winter.  The Dec one was pretty big, too. I would say this particular winter has seen an unusually higher number of signal to positive return failures.

I guess if you put a pistol to my head ... there will be a lead system, but it will 'de magnify' toward a reality that is a minoring event, with a lolly pot moderate points around a narrower stripe and probably we see milk sun not too far away on the N-E side of a NW-SE movement. It may blow up as it's leaving out over the ocean.   Then, later go with the blend of the EPS and GEPs for next week, which means the operational Euro is too far NW.  Then maybe one last shot nearing the Equinox and then we're out

[CoastalWx]

I wish the confluence held a bit more on the EPS. Kind of scoots out. Congrats Logan11.

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's okay ... you can self-promote.  I saw your post haha

no but I've been privately musing that we could actually miss both. I'm sure that thoughts crossed a few radars, huh        nah....  (lol)

It doesn't sit well with me as of this morning - none of it.  The original signal was/is real, despite the lack of confidence in any of these mere phantasms we've so far seen manifested in the models.  It's annoying... the potential is large, any one of these solutions can't be ignored, but then as time and new model runs go buy ... consummately proves they all should be. ... And yet all the while, the signal is still there and just as impressively coherent.

It's hit media circuits! I like that CT guy a few posts ago, because of the concision.  Saturday ... or Tuesday.  Meanwhile, CNN has a headline on their website talking about the cold anomaly for the U.S. with possible snow in the M/A ...

I mean wtf with the utter lack of model performance. Still no difference in confidence on anything.

And fact of the matter is, if there was a bigger dawg in this, uuuusually those bigger affairs show up in the guidance and have staying power despite run to run permutation.  Not seeing that.  These are - maybe ...just saying maybe here - signs for me to really just remain skeptical, despite that overwhelming signal.  They don't always produce.  We haven't had a lot of signals this winter.  The Dec one was pretty big, too. I would say this particular winter has seen an unusually higher number of signal to positive return failures.

I guess if you put a pistol to my head ... there will be a lead system, but it will 'de magnify' toward a reality that is a minoring event, with a lolly pot moderate points around a narrower stripe and probably we see milk sun not too far away on the N-E side of a NW-SE movement. It may blow up as it's leaving out over the ocean.   Then, later go with the blend of the EPS and GEPs for next week, which means the operational Euro is too far NW.  Then maybe one last shot nearing the Equinox and then we're out

Agree that it’s likely the weekend system and not one next week 

[ORH_wxman]

Gonna need some positive trends at 12z imho for Saturday to be a legit threat. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Agree that it’s likely the weekend system and not one next week 

Lol…they are both a possibility, but that’s all right now. If anything currently, the weekend system has devolved again. And imo The one next week system is much to far away to take anything seriously at this point.

Pattern supports a major storm as Luke described…but where it impacts is the question? We’ve been incredibly unfortunate this winter…you’d think the odds could swing in our favor just one time??? 
Nothing more to do but watch the trends. 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna need some positive trends at 12z imho for Saturday to be a legit threat. 

Yes sir, that faded fast. I think we’d all sacrifice Saturday, for a shot at a true big dog next week. But the stakes are high, and  I guess we just throw all the chips we have(not much lol) in on whatever next week brings, and then maybe we can bail out afterwards.

[Cold Miser]

...Saturday takes a shunt on us, and next week will be the ever so vague, inland threat. 

This is my super non-scientific, but fairly acurate, way off-base guess.

[Kitz Craver]

What Tip said is exactly what I was getting at yesterday…

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday.  I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something.  But thanks for the post.