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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Heisy said:


Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA.

Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S


.

Agreed that's key to us getting a Miller B

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA.

Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S


.

all the ensembles dug the sw more as it reached the east coast i think

that's exactly what we want, digging when it reaches the plains/EC

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

“It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately. 

I don’t have an argument either way. However, from a statistical variance perspective, it is impossible to definitively construe an argument either way due to extremely limited sample size. 

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2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

I won’t don’t have an argument either way. However, from a statistical variance perspective, it is impossible to definitively construe an argument either way due to extremely limited sample size. 

Fair. But we’re getting close to the max length of all prior periods even close to this bad. So if this continues much longer that argument starts losing validity 

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Goes to show how quickly modeling changes. Went from a MECS 2.5 days ago, to a SD Blizzard cutting well into MN, and now a Miller B too far east. 

Seasonal trend could be our friend there. Could end up in the sweet spot by game time. I know there’s blocking and a 50/50 in play, which could shunt the storm too far south / east, but I’d WAY rather be in this spot at day 6-7 instead of it showing a NYC to Boston blizzard.

The trend all year is for things to become more amped / earlier phasing as we get closer. Of course we could over-amp and we’re screwed in a totally different way, but if a Miller b is going to show up as a fail at this range, I’d way rather models show a flat solution to our south than some amped bomb at our latitude.

Model spread is still significant. We’re going to have to be patient over the coming days as tough as that is
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3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good in my opinion. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away.

nam_namer_084_sim_radar_1km.gif

Exactly what I thought.  Better than 12z NAM and each of the main globals (not ensembles).  

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

He went back to a forum that knows they have snow on the way. Can you blame him? I’m heading over there myself. :lol:

hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup

however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward

we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm

657156BB-CED4-4278-983C-F2836E89E53F.thumb.png.bc5a02d16d78623a42abbf3d8e6c606c.png

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup

however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward

we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm

657156BB-CED4-4278-983C-F2836E89E53F.thumb.png.bc5a02d16d78623a42abbf3d8e6c606c.png

if the digging of the wave becomes a trend then like u said we're in the game

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After today 60 degrees.. it's going to be a colder pattern. Models are running a lot like that, so I don't see why the SE ridge wouldn't trend less with blocking to the north.. It's usually easier said than done: 1 pattern is greater than another pattern, but I think this gravitating south to the gulf stream could make sense. If we can get this storm to happen on the 11th or before we should be fine.. 

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