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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


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big improvement on the EPS
164A5F61-69C4-4AD9-9035-4F7F3196198A.thumb.gif.ed220c658a54cf027588d436da96c038.gif

Man, what a headspinning hobby.


Appreciate all of your analysis and insight my friend. You’ve been steadfast with your thoughts on how this all will unfold, and you were certainly right several days ago when you said the solutions would be all over the damn place over the coming days

Love to see the flattening of the flow on the EPS, allowing the storm to slide underneath. It’s quite close to being an areawide snowstorm (with mixing / rain in the lowland areas along and east of 95)

Next 72 hours will be pretty crucial, no matter which way this turns out.
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This actually is the first euro solution to snow. The closest for this storm was actually last nights(Thursday night run) but that was still all rain. Hopefully it's adjusting based on mjo

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This actually is the first euro solution to snow. The closest for this storm was actually last nights(Thursday night run) but that was still all rain. Hopefully it's adjusting based on mjo

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When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay.
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When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay.
Lol in a few days...by the 9th well established into phase 8 at a very high amplitude b135957a6f31c69f99230400ad972b8f.jpg

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:


When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay.

It’s hard for me to fathom the op GFS reversing course now that it reversed course.  But with the slight delay in the start we are still day 8-9.  It’s fun to watch regardless.  Model mayhem is entertaining regardless of the outcome. 

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It’s hard for me to fathom the op GFS reversing course now that it reversed course.  But with the slight delay in the start we are still day 8-9.  It’s fun to watch regardless.  Model mayhem is entertaining regardless of the outcome. 
I think heisey said it can take gfs 24 hours to flush a run before it changes.

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The 0z and 6z GEFS have trended towards the op run, with significant NS energy dropping south as the Pac ridge amplifies, digging a trough out west. The HH GEFS yesterday still had a pretty favorable look, with much of that energy captured by the Pacific trough, allowing a wave to eject east.

The EPS is better, but we probably need a bit more help with the NAO than is currently modeled. I want to see some wicked confluence to our NE.

As things stand now, the lowlands can forget about significant frozen. The interior/western highlands are favored, and the NW burbs are somewhere in between the 2.

 

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If the GFS idea is more correct, the low tracks well NW into the GLs and becomes occluded. As the trough becomes established in the east there will be additional energy dropping into the trough. Might be a sneaky chance of something for the 14-15th.

 

eta- 6z GEFS is suggesting a bit of a following wave for the 14th.

1678752000-8p1oo6YKohs.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The 0z and 6z GEFS have trended towards the op run, with significant NS energy dropping south as the Pac ridge amplifies, digging a trough out west. The HH GEFS yesterday still had a pretty favorable look, with much of that energy captured by the Pacific trough, allowing a wave to eject east.

The EPS is better, but we probably need a bit more help with the NAO than is currently modeled. I want to see some wicked confluence to our NE.

As things stand now, the lowlands can forget about significant frozen. The interior/western highlands are favored, and the NW burbs are somewhere in between the 2.

 

Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on.

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on.

Still a week out, and its very unlikely the guidance has this nailed down with all the moving parts. If the general idea holds or degrades over the next couple days, then it is probably time to focus on the week of the 13th.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Still a week out, and its very unlikely the guidance has this nailed down with all the moving parts. If the general idea holds or degrades over the next couple days, then it is probably time to focus on the week of the 13th.

Cape how cold do we need it to be from the 15th on over here on the shore for anything of value to fall

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The general answer is we need anomalous cold given the average high temps are well into the 50s.

Normal 850 temps are 0 in mid-march for DCA, as opposed to about -4 in Jan.

So they need to be below normal to support snow as long as the BL is saturated and/or isothermal

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6z control (basically smoothed out version of euro) vs 6z gfs. Huge differences in PAC with that epo ridge and the energy that retrogrades. My theory is that GFS had a run with some poor initialization and it needed a few runs to get it out of its system. Probably see the GFS do a full on cave with that progression by end of the day. Maybe even by 12z we’ll see. Now, eps still doesn’t mean snowstorm for I-95, but at least it gives us a shot vs the GFS insane digging scenario.

f1f16f42c625895a43980b08556ecd8f.gif



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