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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, Heisy said:


One day, maybe not this year, but sometime in the future we’ll get one of those epic runs with an event around day 6-7 that actually trends the right way. The pain is worth the glory. It snowed at my house today for like 15 minutes, just those few flakes made me want a snowstorm so much more.


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Seriously, not being a deb, but when was the last time we went from a crud modeled event and backed into something significant? 2018?

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Also, side question… and I know it tip toes near the “don’t talk about this” topic, but do the effects of AGW make it harder for these storms out west to stay relatively weak as they attempt to traverse east? Making it harder for them to swing under the block?Larger temp gradient = more amplification = we’re in trouble.

Just a random thought. I know it’s silly to correlate such a topic to specific weather events, but the trend has been undeniable all season, which is a larger sample size. These SW out west just strengthen and dig and refuse to slide east, which inevitably screws things up @ H5 on our side of the country. Or is that more of a product of the Niña, unhelpful PAC, Aleutian situation, etc?

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10 minutes ago, Heisy said:


The problem I see here is the rest of the data we have is going the same direction. We didn’t have one model run today outside maybe the JMA that gave us snow with a decent H5 SLP track. Even the 18z GEFS which we seem to be putting all our money on still favors interior based on the snow mean. When the OP GFS came in way amped last week with this current system we all thought it was out to lunch too…


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This is the most telling aspect....nothing at all moving TOWARDS a good solution...everything either stayed the course or stepped back. Agreed we need some big changes over the next 24 hours.

Eta: staying the course isn't a bad thing at this range but would be nice to see something, anything trend notably to the good.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When I worked at whole foods we used to put a poached egg inside of a half avocado on our hot bar (dating myself here haven't worked in that context in many years). Maybe we need a mix of the two. 

Egg on avocado toast, maybe??

(ETA:  I actually got one of those Squishable avocado pillow things for my daughter years ago, she thought it was overly cute!  And it is.  She named it "Guaqui" LOL!!!)

  • Haha 1
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P16 and call it a winter.

Helluva signal for New York and NE. I guess if this time period were to fail, which who knows if it will, it would be because we’re too far south and NYC to BOS sees an epic to historic winter finale. Think that’s always been the far more likely fail scenario than suppression.
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33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is the most telling aspect....nothing at all moving TOWARDS a good solution...everything either stayed the course or stepped back. Agreed we need some big changes over the next 24 hours.

Eta: staying the course isn't a bad thing at this range but would be nice to see something, anything trend notably to the good.

the march 3 storm was trending very favorably at this time and then switched up at a 5/6 day lead time. imo, ur trends usually always reverse at 5/6 days and we shouldn't be complaining for something that hasn't even reached the pacific shore yet. it only fully comes onshore at hour 144, please don't make presumptions when our main piece is LEAGUES away from being on shore.

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