The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

[canderson]

CTP’s 11:30 am discussion throws out possible 90 mph winds  

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies clearing out quickly across the Susq Valley late this
morning with full sunshine across the western two-thirds of PA.

A high probability for a significant high wind and/or enhanced
convective wind event exist for the early to mid afternoon
hours across Central and Western parts of the CWA, and late this
afternoon/very early this evening over the Susquehanna Valley
and points east.

The rare combination (in this part of the of the country) from
wind and increasing buoyancy/large scale lift from initially
full sunshine and an approaching vigorous mid/upper level trough
will support a line of severe TSRA racing east at an incredible 70
to 75 mph (now seen across Central OH and noted by highly
elongated HRRR 1 hour precip cells within a QLCS type of
structure).

Inverted-V soundings beneath the high-based CB will combine with 0-3 km bulk shear of 50-70KT to bring localized areas of
enhanced wind damage where the stronger mid level winds are mixed down through precip cores/accompanying mini bow signatures. Localized 80KT westerly winds are possible in the stronger precip cores

[Anduril]

Almost perfect weather for a nice long walk with the pup. Clouds really cleared out quick and a nice breeze has started coming in now

[canderson]

68 and rapidly clearing skies at noon. 

I’ve lived here since 2006 and don’t think I’ve ever read more aggressive language from CTP. 

[Anduril]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

68 and rapidly clearing skies at noon. 

I’ve lived here since 2006 and don’t think I’ve ever read more aggressive language from CTP. 

Yea Im not getting the warm and fuzzies from it...

[Bubbler86]

Nooners and sunny as it can get....Dan's in Boonesboro MD is 70.  69 in Rou.  Winds are fairly light.

[Wmsptwx]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

68 and rapidly clearing skies at noon. 

I’ve lived here since 2006 and don’t think I’ve ever read more aggressive language from CTP. 

Complete clear up hear and temp jumping way up

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Complete clear up hear and temp jumping way up

May see some 80's reports on wundermap. 

[Atomixwx]

All of western PA blue boxed for 30% severe with straightline winds exceeding 50 knots.
It was going to weaken as it moved east (before restrengthening near the NJ line) but the NAM has it riding all of PA as a powerful system without any weakening.   
 
 
 

Oh great. MAG, 2001ktx and myself sit in the section.

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[Bubbler86]

Hrrr still not impressed.  3k has a short lived but intense line from the central and northern Lsv and North.  Spares southern Lsv. 

[canderson]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Oh great. MAG, 2001ktx and myself sit in the section.

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The rest of PA will be  joining the party shortly. 

[canderson]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Hrrr still not impressed.  3k has a short lived but intense line from the central and northern Lsv and North.  Spares southern Lsv. 

That’s the solution I thought would transpire hit this am it jumped way south. Interesting it’s back north

[Itstrainingtime]

Can't post on my phone but a good bit of the central and northern portions of the LSV just got upgraded to Enhanced. Much of Adams and Franklin is still Marginal with Slight risk around and just south of the Turnpike.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can't post on my phone but a good bit of the central and northern portions of the LSV just got upgraded to Enhanced. Much of Adams and Franklin is still Marginal with Slight risk around and just south of the Turnpike.

Sounds like they are buying into the nam depiction.  On my phone as well. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sounds like they are buying into the nam depiction.  On my phone as well. 

Yeah, pretty sharp gradient between Marginal and Enhanced right across the LSV.

[canderson]

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Line has entered western PA- it's almost perfectly oriented north/south which is a bit unusual.

[Atomixwx]

 

Goodbye, everybody.

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[canderson]

74 at 2 pm

[MAG5035]

Winds are starting to ramp up here, the approaching line of storms is definitely going to be interesting. 

Pretty impressive satellite image, it’s overlayed with wind gusts, lightning, and pressure change. Red contours are pressure rises (mb/hr) and blue is pressure falls

[canderson]

PA from the southern to northern border out west is currently in a severe thunderstorm warning. Impressive.  

[canderson]

Severe thunderstorm watch now out for the entire region until 8 pm.

Winds have started to pick up - gusting into the mid 20s now. That’ll increase by 25-40 mph as the afternoon goes on …

[Bubbler86]

77 in Rou with some gusty winds.  20-25ish. 

[canderson]

Pittsburgh had a gust to 63 a few minutes ago. 
 

Storm near Somerset looks to have 70 mph winds with it. 

[Atomixwx]

Electricity has caved

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[Jns2183]

4900 Spring Rd, Shermans Dale, PA 17090

The minute the wind picked up Watched the tree crack, fall, come a foot away from smashing car driving.

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[Atomixwx]

Well that wasn't terrible. I also live down a hill that probably is the difference between 1700" and 1556", so it may have been worse elsewhere.

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[Itstrainingtime]

Winds had been steadily increasing over the past few hours but suddenly have gone nearly calm. Temp is up to 77.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Winds had been steadily increasing over the past few hours but suddenly have gone nearly calm. Temp is up to 77.

Our temp has stopped at 77 here as well.  It is quite gusty at 30-35 but we have gusted over 45 six times since New Years and over 50 three times.   Looking at the radar and the HRRR, I am worried I may get shut out. 

[Bubbler86]

There is a fairly large complex NW of Williamsport but may slide north of the town. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Thermodynamics are much more mediocre than I expected to this point. low level lapse rates are quite steep so good wind to the ground is a good bet regardless of storm intensity.