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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

paweather
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Blizzard of 93
Blizzard of 93

I am currently in the Poconos thanks to a work conference that Mrs. Blizz is attending. I am out on the balcony at 11 pm watching it absolutely rip heavy snow!!! I finally am experiencing so

pawatch
pawatch

5” of snow here. Snow is sticking to everything.

Voyager
Voyager

Pic my niece took this morning (3/2/23) from her front porch. This winter's been unbelievable up in Flagstaff.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Boone NC will take the snow...

 

One of my favorite places in the country. If you haven't been to Boone, go. Wife and I have made numerous trips in the past to do some charitable work. One thing I haven't done yet that I want to do is see Appalachian State play a home football game - ESPN College Gameday was there live this past fall. I had goosebumps watching it. Such an amazing little town is Boone...sitting at an elevation of 3333'. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Not like we haven't said this before - 

 

It's all timing issues. Trends continue that the cold overwhelms the setup and squashes everything. 

So...for the sake of disco, go to nooner GFS and look at the height lines.  Then loop back a few runs.  You'll see the 540s retreating and HP is no longer anchored and too far east.  Then look to the west and see the big and all too familiar bulge pressing north.  No reason for that to scoot off to the S coast w/ tellies progged as per my earlier disco.  If you are correct, it'll be the NAO that would do it, but IMO it's not enough to hold things back w/ MJO losing amp at same timeframe, so likely it comes north.  

I'll say hello and give you a beer as I walk by you out on the weather limb.  

 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Not like we haven't said this before - 

 

It's all timing issues. Trends continue that the cold overwhelms the setup and squashes everything. 

We have gotten used to dismissing the GFS for a period but it is rolling with the hot hand right now.   If you run through the GFS and CMC you will see they both have a breadbasket of the US low next week around this time and in both cases, though with different timing, the first piece of energy minors out and a second piece to the south takes over but still cuts.  A weird depiction but right up the timing alley as you said. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 12Z Euro is comically different vs 24 hours ago.    Now we have to wait one more hour for bad progs. 

 

It's getting close to that time to call it.

 

If this look holds I wonder if I'll see Mammoth Lakes in May. After getting some rain yesterday, today's GFS shows over 12" of QPF over the next 10 days. All of it snow. (Euro "only" shows a little over 6" of QPF)

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It's getting close to that time to call it.

 

If this look holds I wonder if I'll see Mammoth Lakes in May. After getting some rain yesterday, today's GFS shows over 12" of QPF over the next 10 days. All of it snow. (Euro "only" shows a little over 6" of QPF)

The roads just looked wet in that video :-)

 

It is tough when the models (not just op's... Ensembles, MJO, pretty much any prognostication) flip so violently.     The only LR forecasting method that has been reliable is the "it will continue to do the same as before" methodology. 

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paweather

paweather

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The roads just looked wet in that video :-)

 

It is tough when the models (not just op's... Ensembles, MJO, pretty much any prognostication) flip so violently.     The only LR forecasting method that has been reliable is the "it will continue to do the same as before" methodology. 

NOT Snow!!!! :D

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted

This threat can definitely come back but it’s certainly not looking great today. Models seem to be really keying in on another strong trough dumping into the SW US which supresses whatever southern stream energy that does eject out while building eastern heights. Result is no amp to strengthen or turn that shortwave up while we have plenty of well below average climo air around (our period of opportunity) and also to set the stage for an inevitable cut after that modifies. 

Euro 12z today vs 12z yesterday

141968341_ECMWFWeatherBellMaps2.thumb.png.444218e0edc8bb619784588f098f7f63.png

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paweather

paweather

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

At least it will be cold.  To me, not all agree, that is better than getting into the 70's now.   Euro has a 5 day stretch for MDT, 6-7 for colder locales, of freezing or below at night and highs below or near normal. 

I agree with that, just wasted cold air. Let's hope for April (Easter Snow). LOL

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The roads just looked wet in that video :-)

 

It is tough when the models (not just op's... Ensembles, MJO, pretty much any prognostication) flip so violently.     The only LR forecasting method that has been reliable is the "it will continue to do the same as before" methodology. 

 

A nice reprieve out there the next few days with a lot of sun, though temps are only expected to be in the low 30s in town until the next series of storms blows in. Still, mid March sun will help thaw things out and begin the perfect melting process with the pack slowly deteoriating. Of course, it might be a net gain (loss?) if they get more snow next week than what was able to melt this week. 

 

Top of the ski area now has a base in excess of 300". Considering that the snow is groomed out every night, I can't begin to imagine how long it will take that much snow to melt. That's a heck of a lot of snow. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

At least it will be cold.  To me, not all agree, that is better than getting into the 70's now.   Euro has a 5 day stretch for MDT, 6-7 for colder locales, of freezing or below at night and highs below or near normal. 

 

I'm riding the middle line on this - I don't want 70s either but yesterday I had to wear a light sweatshirt with my shorts. I'm ready for just the tee and shorts combo. I need 50s for that. :)  

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It's getting close to that time to call it.

 

If this look holds I wonder if I'll see Mammoth Lakes in May. After getting some rain yesterday, today's GFS shows over 12" of QPF over the next 10 days. All of it snow. (Euro "only" shows a little over 6" of QPF)

I was considering that potential event next week as the last good chance of something bigger before we’re at a point where it becomes much harder to line something up, though we’re likely to be dealing with periods of notable below average temps the rest of the month into early April. 

As it looks now, I think yesterday’s nor’easter probably will be the signature event of the 22-23 winter in the Northeastern US. Something finally took advantage of those flaming hot above average SSTs in the NW Atlantic we’ve had all winter and there were several 30-40”+ amounts to show for it in the higher/more interior parts of NWS Albany and Boston’s CWAs. On that same note, I feel that same thing probably contributed to the lower elevations of southern New England doing their best LSV impression with big snow map totals and not much on the ground to show for it.  

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GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

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Posted

The sun felt great today!  I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring.  It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful.  One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts.  Can’t wait to start it all over again in October.  I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost.  Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall!  Thanks again friends!!

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Just now, GrandmasterB said:

The sun felt great today!  I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring.  It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful.  One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts.  Can’t wait to start it all over again in October.  I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost.  Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall!  Thanks again friends!!

 

Be well, Bud! 

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Wmsptwx

Wmsptwx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

The sun felt great today!  I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring.  It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful.  One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts.  Can’t wait to start it all over again in October.  I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost.  Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall!  Thanks again friends!!

Same to you, B

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

The sun felt great today!  I’m going to call it quits and officially say I’m ready for spring.  It was great riding with all of you even though this winter was beyond dreadful.  One of my favorite winter activities is waking up and immediately checking the models and all of the overnight posts.  Can’t wait to start it all over again in October.  I occasionally check in on severe, but for the most part I’ll be out until first frost.  Hope everyone stays safe and well until then, and maybe we can plan a get together in the fall!  Thanks again friends!!

That’s great…. See you at 0z …Lol !!!

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