canderson Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 CTP now ha me at snow only before 10, then just rain the rest of the day. It’ll be a gross October day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ruin said: So im watching all the models on youtube these guys who do the weather stuff. one thing that really puzzles me they show models giving my area heavy snow for a few hours and mod snow for a few hours but we cant eek out a god darn inch? .9 for MDT? for tomorrow and this snow is said to go mostly over night tomorrow night? No it’s not overnight. It’s pretty much entirely a daytime event, which is one of the myriad problems given we’re nearing mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: No it’s not overnight. It’s pretty much entirely a daytime event, which is one of the myriad problems given we’re nearing mid March. lol even driving by the digital alerts on the side of the high way says friday pm event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Ruin said: So im watching all the models on youtube these guys who do the weather stuff. one thing that really puzzles me they show models giving my area heavy snow for a few hours and mod snow for a few hours but we cant eek out a god darn inch? .9 for MDT? for tomorrow and this snow is said to go mostly over night tomorrow night? I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 well this shows no snow day and snow 5pm and after mixed with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us. true but look at accuweather link just outside my area I live just to the west about 12-15 mins across the river these days and it says for haarrisburg wont start till 5 plus they were showing legit models gfs euro etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us. Unfortunately making people think the next hecs is just right around the corner has become a profitable business for enough people and agency's now that the next hecs will always be 8-14 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: true but look at accuweather link just outside my area I live just to the west about 12-15 mins across the river these days and it says for haarrisburg wont start till 5 plus they were showing legit models gfs euro etc I think what you will find over time is that there are no legit weather models for this area of the US at any range, just people that cant or don't want remember yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Unfortunately making people think the next hecs is just right around the corner has become a profitable business for enough people and agency's now that the next hecs will always be 8-14 days out. I agree but the youtubers I follow 1 former meteorologist and the second guy keeps showing the models it shows the area mod to heavy snow 10 hours and yet snow guidance suggest one accum is 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Yardstickgozinya said: I think what you will find over time is that there are no legit weather models for this area of the US at any range, just people that cant or don't want remember yesterday. Oh ive been into weather for a long time models are normally all shit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Don't let some of the guys her fool you , Sometimes we get into simple patterns that make the models look like they are ok, but its not the models working out its the simple pattern . Unfortunately computer models cant handle any dynamics lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 WE ARE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 A godawful basketball conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The 18z EPS keep the eastern half of PA in the game for the Sunday night into Monday storm chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Here are the 18z EPS low locations for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 24 hrs ago 24 hrs later....and that bump north as promised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the 18z EPS low locations for Monday. A track like that is a much easier way for for the southeast crew to score. I’d roll the dice with that look, even if verbatim it’s too warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Don't let some of the guys her fool you , Sometimes we get into simple patterns that make the models look like they are ok, but its not the models working out its the simple pattern . Unfortunately computer models cant handle any dynamics lol. do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Ruin said: do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s How did you have access to model runs back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 as I'm lookng beyond tomorrow for us southers, I'm hoping we can pull something off or Monday event. If one can overcome marginal thermals for us low landers....thats our shot. Enough consensus on most globals really have me rooting that one on. Nice to see the HH GFS keep the boundary further south for the 3/18 event. May have 2 shots before window closes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ruin said: do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s Lol - those were called forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Lancaster Co folks need to just give up the ghost, one or two inches of slop paste which last on the bare grass for 3 hours isn’t even worth anybodys time. Let’s just enjoy our almost zippo snow totals and you can tell your kids and or grandkids about the snowless winter you lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: How did you have access to model runs back then? I didnt but those who poste them did on accuweather forums for many years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The 0z Euro made a good improvement for the Monday event for CTP & the LSV. It shows a nice low track that intensifies off of the NC coast as it moves north & east. There is a much better depiction of the typical precip field in this scenario for our region with this type of coastal low. We are very much in the game with a few days to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The low reaches the 970s & eventually stalls out in eastern Massachusetts while still throwing back light snow to us into Tuesday pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The low reaches the 970s & eventually stalls out in eastern Massachusetts while still throwing back light snow to us into Tuesday pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Here is the total precip & snow for the Monday/Tuesday event period. There is even more upside potential for snow in the LSV with the roughly 1 inch of total precip in the LSV that is shown this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The 0z EPS has that classic look with an intensifying coastal low as it moves northeast. The precip shield looks reasonable given the track on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Here are the 0z Euro low clusters. Many of these individual ensemble member tracks could work well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The EPS has .8 to .9 total precip for the LSV. If the dominant precip type is snow, there is more room for upside in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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