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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

32 here now with mod snow.  Grass is white, roofs white, cars white, etc...still a bit warm to lay on the road except when it goes Sn ++ for a bit.   The latest HRRR has moved the sleet bomb south to at times encompass the Central and Northern LSV tonight.   Temps 33-35 during the precip. 

Here’s the Flat.   I measured 1.2” up there 

72FFD90C-E65B-47CE-ADA6-343D20B6EE7C.jpeg

6C03118D-F51D-4312-9E4D-0FE383D5FA12.jpeg

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52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is one of my more favorites "busts or close bust" in a while.  It is snowing as hard as anytime in the season so far.  Driveway starting to cave.   Good call by @MAG5035 a few days ago...ignored the naysay. 

I’ve been busy the last couple days but I wasn’t sure how things were going to fare when the short range stuff lost most of any kind of front end snow. Looked like the Euro and even GFS did better. 

Here’s how my rain/sleet/snow/less than a half inch forecast grid is going so far today.

Over an inch on non paved. 

351433A4-2F2B-4361-AB4C-85C7BDF125D9.thumb.jpeg.81bc8e46dade7cd3961a2474af2124e0.jpeg

 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve been busy the last couple days but I wasn’t sure how things were going to fare when the short range stuff lost most of any kind of front end snow. Looked like the Euro and even GFS did better. 

Here’s how my rain/sleet/snow/less than a half inch forecast grid is going so far today.

Over an inch on non paved. 

 

 

You made a good call in the column being "under modeled".  That has happened 2-3 times this season.   If the HRRR is right (this time, it failed today) the Northern LSV has a winter threat tonight. You and I not so much though you had one panel with purple.  

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Took a while but the rain/snow mix gradually became mostly snow with increased flake size.  That lasted for about the past 30 minutes.  It dropped the temp from 41 down to the current 34.7.  Intensity has now decreased.  I have my eyes on my mulch, since that's the first thing to cave...and no caving yet.  When the temp drops about one more degree the mulch will begin to whiten.  I've recorded 0.08" of liquid / melted liquid so far.

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All rain here now but fun while it lasted, actually came down moderate at times.

My thoughts for all the upcoming fun are that the models are all over the map and will continue to be that way for a while yet; pay no mind.  The big picture, as @Itstrainingtime has been harping on since seemingly the Orioles stopped playing, is that the pattern is loaded for bear. 

Regardless of whether we actually get hit with a big storm or not, is anyone else getting excited about one of those "stuck under an ULL for days with fantastically miserable winter-like conditions" type patterns?  You know the type -- lots of gray, unseasonable chill, persistent northwest winds, and a consistent stream of on and off snow showers.  My confidence is growing that sometime within the next couple of weeks we'll be in one of those patterns and finally it will look and feel like winter.  Better late than never.  Now let's go hook that big one!

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