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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

Today is the first post 6 p.m. sunset in HBG of the year. 

All that means is that the sun will still be melting our snowfall later and later in the day.

 

That's the thing with March snow...in December and early January, unless it's a very warm day, snowmelt is ending by 4pm as the sun gets too low to do any damage. In mid March, it can be 32 at 6:00pm and it's still dripping away...

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

GFS is gradually making moves towards the EPS...all we can ask for at this point. The EPS is remaining steady and I was hoping that the GFS camp would blink first. 

Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components.  A day or two ago there was no storm on the board.  This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing.    Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components.  A day or two ago there was no storm on the board.  This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing.    Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. 

You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us ;)

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components.  A day or two ago there was no storm on the board.  This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing.    Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. 

 

Wild swings in OP runs are not unusual...I think that becomes even more magnified in March. 

 

There is going to be a push of cold air - and the energy potential seems very high. We don't have a long window but with each day I become more and more convinced that there will be a big storm in the east. What that translates to in our area is still a long way off from being decided. This is the first time I've been excited in 2 years...but trust me, I know very well that you can't shovel potential. We're still going to need some luck. 

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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us ;)

And I love the step-by-step analysis/PBP of how we got there with an occasional forecast thrown on the board.  LOL.  I had the high number for the souls brave enough to enter the March snowfall contest so some of this is greed in wanting to be to most close to right.   

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And I love the step-by-step analysis/PBP of how we got there with an occasional forecast thrown on the board.  LOL.  I had the high number for the souls brave enough to enter the March snowfall contest so some of this is greed in wanting to be to most close to right.   

 

What a maverick you are! 

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24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

All that means is that the sun will still be melting our snowfall later and later in the day.

 

That's the thing with March snow...in December and early January, unless it's a very warm day, snowmelt is ending by 4pm as the sun gets too low to do any damage. In mid March, it can be 32 at 6:00pm and it's still dripping away...

What is this “snow” you mention? 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep definitely gets cold but then dry. 

Going to need the energy in the west to round the base of this trough as it is departing.  This is not an avocado, it is a watermelon.  The potential ITT is there in the breadbasket at 240 but this is so drastically different from the 0Z Euro, I do not feel it is worth digging into it too much. 

image.thumb.png.6ef8b9f2b259746f4fa302091549af1f.png

 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Going to need the energy in the west to round the base of this trough as it is departing.  This is not an avocado, it is a watermelon.  The potential ITT is there in the breadbasket at 240 but this is so drastically different from the 0Z Euro, I do not feel it is worth digging into it too much. 

image.thumb.png.6ef8b9f2b259746f4fa302091549af1f.png

 

Definitely some of the coldest air of winter looks to be coming. You would think we would get lucky with this cold shot but this year obviously has not been good to us. 

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15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Definitely some of the coldest air of winter looks to be coming. You would think we would get lucky with this cold shot but this year obviously has not been good to us. 

The cold is blunted a bit by the time of the year but would expect teens in the LSV and singles in colder spots with that look. 

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While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event.
As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester. image.thumb.png.da002aac77b9c7649b6e32e9a993f02e.png
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