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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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Happy Mother's Day to all of the mom's out there today!! Well not much rain across Northern Chester County yesterday and not that much more...up to 0.10" across southern sections. So we continue to be running over 4" of rain below normal so far here in 2023.
More dry weather for the work week with temps rising to above normal by Tuesday before falling below normal by Wednesday through Friday. Next rain chance looks to be on Friday.
Records for today: High 92 (1900) / Low 30 (1996) / Rain 1.06" (1978)
image.png.257ff7e0c8da5e03c2404dae2060d9bd.png
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21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Mid 30's on May 18 is beyond banana's, and after the warmest winter, second warmest April!

 

It's happened before.  And it caught a bunch of big box and standalone garden centers off guard because they had some of the tender annuals and veggies out and for sale and lost much of it because there was no space to jam it inside their small greenhouses (if they had any).  After that, a number of them put up notices that they wouldn't offer things like tomatoes or cukes, etc., until after May 20 (or thereabouts).  I usually wait until around Memorial Day to put out my potted tropicals (I have my subtropicals out now though)..

Made it up to 75 today after a low of 54 and the significant dp drop came sometime between 1 am - and 2am around these parts.  Definitely made a difference today with a nice breeze to boot.

It's currently 66 with dp 37.

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Was a very nice couple of days today and yesterday, got so much yard work done. We more than doubled our garden square footage to ~200 sq ft this year, replete with soaker hoses, and I installed a 55gal rain barrel on one corner of the house. Now we just need it to rain. There's been no measurable rain in two weeks and it is starting to show. String-trimming the narrow ditches at the edges of our lawn yields giant dust clouds these days, and the trees are clearly stressed as evidenced by all the winged maple seeds from yet another mast year (last one was just two years ago). Yesterday's rain almost completely missed us, with just a couple of drops here and there, but nothing in the gauge. Last year by this point we had ~3" for the first two weeks of May. I'll be surprised if we don't get another burn ban up here in Berks if this continues. It's been so dry that I'm getting static electrical shocks exiting my car.

 

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1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said:

Was a very nice couple of days today and yesterday, got so much yard work done. We more than doubled our garden square footage to ~200 sq ft this year, replete with soaker hoses, and I installed a 55gal rain barrel on one corner of the house. Now we just need it to rain. There's been no measurable rain in two weeks and it is starting to show. String-trimming the narrow ditches at the edges of our lawn yields giant dust clouds these days, and the trees are clearly stressed as evidenced by all the winged maple seeds from yet another mast year (last one was just two years ago). Yesterday's rain almost completely missed us, with just a couple of drops here and there, but nothing in the gauge. Last year by this point we had ~3" for the first two weeks of May. I'll be surprised if we don't get another burn ban up here in Berks if this continues. It's been so dry that I'm getting static electrical shocks exiting my car.

 

Good luck. Although a super nice week ahead (some 30s overnight) looks like only a chance of a shower on Tues. Maybe some showers next weekend?

Currently 59F but more importantly DPs back in the 30s (33F) Windows upen...

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1 hour ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

A low in the mid 30s at night this time of year is pretty unusual but not quite off the charts. May 18-21 in 2002 had 4 straight days of high temperatures in the 50s and lows near freezing at ABE. That’s pretty insane.

Yeah we've got a lot of veggies already planted, so a frost advisory would be pretty devastating at this point. It's akin to what farmers must feel like, being helpless to the whims of the weather. Only it's a small, backyard garden for us and we'll survive either way. Personally, I just want to make a crap-load of tomato sauce is all. :)

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6 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

A low in the mid 30s at night this time of year is pretty unusual but not quite off the charts. May 18-21 in 2002 had 4 straight days of high temperatures in the 50s and lows near freezing at ABE. That’s pretty insane.

Yup - that happened here in the city too -

KPHL200205plot-2.png

2002 was a real droughty year that also featured extended heatwaves that summer (dry begets dry).

KPHL200206plot-2.png

KPHL200207plot-2.png

KPHL200208plot-2.png

Remnants of Hurricane Isidore (which was a TS at U.S. landfall) helped to break it -

Isidore_2002_rainfall.gif

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11 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yup - that happened here in the city too -

KPHL200205plot-2.png

2002 was a real droughty year that also featured extended heatwaves that summer (dry begets dry).

KPHL200206plot-2.png

KPHL200207plot-2.png

KPHL200208plot-2.png

Remnants of Hurricane Isidore (which was a TS at U.S. landfall) helped to break it -

Isidore_2002_rainfall.gif

This issue is not just "droughty" but historical. Folks, we are in serious trouble for historical disappearing ephemeral streams and low major stream base flows in the next two months without some serious weather pattern change. Yes a tropical storm can change the pattern but we cannot wait until September. I am sorry to say but we need an "Agnes" type of tropical storm event in June and I just do not see that happening.  Its the late 60's and early 2000's all over again. here is my proof

 

image.thumb.png.2d2882a8905accfb6f7c6403a99f8458.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2882a8905accfb6f7c6403a99f8458.png

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11 hours ago, Albedoman said:

This issue is not just "droughty" but historical. Folks, we are in serious trouble for historical disappearing ephemeral streams and low major stream base flows in the next two months without some serious weather pattern change. Yes a tropical storm can change the pattern but we cannot wait until September. I am sorry to say but we need an "Agnes" type of tropical storm event in June and I just do not see that happening.  Its the late 60's and early 2000's all over again. here is my proof

 

image.thumb.png.2d2882a8905accfb6f7c6403a99f8458.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2882a8905accfb6f7c6403a99f8458.png

One of the issues of 2002's drought was that I remember literally after 9/11, the fall and winter precipitation along the lower northeast/upper mid-Atlantic, was scant (this actually helped NYC to deal with the aftermath of the building collapses all winter).  But I think to put it in perspective, we here in the east are thankfully nowhere near the southwest and southern west coast in terms of extended extreme drought conditions that for the first time in at least a decade, is being nipped.

I just stumbled on this interesting analogous note about 2001/2002 and that season coming off what was also a 3-peat La Nina - https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast06mar_1

Was also looking at the longer-term cycles like the PDO, where it has been in a negative phase - https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/01/pacific-decadal-oscillation/

Current_Phase_of_Pacific_Decadal_Oscilla

 

And in comparison to the past 3 decades -

pdo_history-1024x614.png

(more granular data can be found going back to the 1850s - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/)

Just some musings as the PDO is overlaying the ENSO and would need to do a deeper dive into it to see if anything is similar to 2001/2002. 

We had precipitation during the fall/winter 2022/2023 (although not in the form desired :P) but it really did dry up almost completely in Jan/Feb 2002 (no measurable snow at KPHL that Jan), with a 95 temp in mid-April 2002 (helping to make it the driest Apr on record at the time), and worse, little or nothing in Jul 2002.

So am hoping we don't get that dire this year.

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A cold front slid through the area overnight from the north and winds have turned to the north. Temps have continued to fall from our midnight high of 62.8 - we are currently at 52.7 here in East Nantmeal. Tonight will see many areas fall into the 30's for what should be the last time until October. Below normal temperatures should continue through Friday before rebounding to near normal on Saturday. Shower chances will increase on Saturday.
Records for today: High 91 (1951) / Low 30 (1895) / Rain 1.34" (2018)
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well here comes the misery time:  The last day of the month indicates ont eh latest run of the GFS daytime temps rebounding from the cool 70's right into the 90 degree oven with no rain.  Talk about a farmers nightmare. Seed is finally in the ground this week, no moisture to sprout the plant and now the sun bakes the dry soil even more. Not a good combination thats for sure.  The lawns will begin to  yellow once we get into the upper 80's  at the end of the month without some rain. Just like 2002 again.

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Had a low of 49 yesterday with a high of 68 (a bit warmer than I expected).  But that front did a number on the dp overnight.

Although the winds here have dropped compared to the breezy conditions yesterday, they haven't gone completely calm and there appears to be a high deck of cirrus, so that is going to impact any further radiational cooling.

Currently 41 (and I expect I may possible drop a little more) with dp 27.

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