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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip.

Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time.

What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances


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3 hours ago, Heisy said:

Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip.

Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time.

What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances


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So we are just going to ignore the blizzard here on the Euro  about a week from now?

2096057345_sn10_acc-imp.us_ma(1)1234.thumb.png.30786e7180110ca8e29faa98ea467480.png

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

at this point winter is DEAD. A car topper this morning . Put a fork in it please 

 Euro is on drugs.

From a guy who touts himself as having been in this hobby for 65 years (even as a brief career iirc?) this surprises me coming from you. I get it....it's March and winter has been blah. But the Nina is dead and even Hellen Keller could probably see the potential in the pattern. You get modest snow this coming Saturday btw.

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56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Surface maps aren't indicative of the potential. GFS is a 6 hr difference in timing from a triple phased bomb:

gfs_z500_vort_eus_32.png

The issue had been lack of cold air and a warm ocean.  The models have been unable to deal with a three-peat La Nina pattern as we have seen since November chasing "10-day storms".  The surface  maps tell us we are going to get "something" but what the p-type is will continually be up in the air.

ETA - the below has been the case all winter -

cpc-jan-feb-mar-off01_temp-0142023.gif

cpc-feb-mar-apr-2023-outlook-off01_temp.gif

march-april-may-off01_temp-02162023.gif

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 But the Nina is dead and even Hellen Keller could probably see the potential in the pattern. You get modest snow this coming Saturday btw.

La Nina is not dead yet.  Excerpt from the last update -

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
 
9 February 2023
 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer.

Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were mostly near -0.5°C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was +0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Like the surface, negative subsurface temperature anomalies continued to weaken [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures expanding eastward at depth and near the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were confined to the western and central Pacific Ocean. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the western and central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

/.../

The Great Lakes never froze over let alone have much frozen on them at all.  As of last month, there was only about 7% ice coverage on them (which did make them open for business for the huge lake effect events that we saw whenever a PV dropped down) - https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2941/Low-ice-on-the-Great-Lakes-this-winter

What HAS changed is the MJO, which is favorable to get more cold air down into the CONUS.

But the equinox is in a couple weeks.

MJO-ensplume_full-03072023.gif

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