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March Discobs 2023


George BM
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12 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Still a huge difference on the globals for Friday/Saturday.  The Euro is gross, dragging down a front and leaving us in the 40s/50s, while the GFS delays the front and then sends it back north with the next low, leaving us in the 70s.

GFS/Euro/ICON/Meteoblue from Windy

61D8A57D-EEFC-4284-93E9-B0E0181DC159.thumb.jpeg.b5c50d255dfa74c2e7a0cd0546dfc0b1.jpeg

LWX

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due
to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20-
30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front
stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance
shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with
highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some
guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the
NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls
somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with
near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason-
Dixon.

Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough
instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based
convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as
the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer,
there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario
works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play.
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

LWX

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due
to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20-
30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front
stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance
shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with
highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some
guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the
NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls
somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with
near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason-
Dixon.

Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough
instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based
convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as
the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer,
there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario
works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play.

Get that wedge north of here, please. 

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That's straight up nasty.  

The 12z GFS developed a small surface reflection Friday night over West Virginia that scoots northeast to NYC. If that happens, there might be enough SW flow to erode the wedge and salvage Saturday. But make no mistake, we are entering backdoor cold front season.

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 12z GFS developed a small surface reflection Friday night over West Virginia that scoots northeast to NYC. If that happens, there might be enough SW flow to erode the wedge and salvage Saturday. But make no mistake, we are entering backdoor cold front season.

it's way way worse the further north you go.  There were many April days where we'd be stuck in the 40s/50s in NYC while you all would be basking in the 70s and 80s.  And then up in Boston that shit lasts until late May.

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6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

This morning’s NAM was the worst of the bunch (midday 40s).  The GFS took a step back too.  Friday looks gross.  Saturday is still unsettled.

     Most of Friday looks nasty for sure.    That said, we'll end up with a high in the 61-65 range due to the temperature at 12:01 AM.

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If we don't get too much cloud cover/shower activity during the day tomorrow CAMs such as the RAP and HRRR get us a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ fast WNW flow aloft leading to decent deep-layer shear. Said clouds/showers may keep a stable-layer near the surface but there could still see a limited sub-severe hail threat... maybe an enhanced wind gust if there's more sunshine to steepen LLLRs. This a low threat overall.

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13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

71 here as well - yeah I feel like by late March most of the records are gonna be 80+.

With 90s sprinkled in. For DCA, the record today is 93 (1907.)

Not sure what was going on in 1907. All three 90+ degree March records happened then.

In an above avg. snowfall year. Including 6" in March...

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