Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Chris12WX]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to have to rely quite heavily on getting good upper level divergence to help with blossoming precipitation. There is a ton of dry air out ahead of the system and also a great deal of dry air that gets ingested into the system as a whole. 

Don't you know that you aren't supposed to present meaningful negative analysis?

[Typhoon Tip]

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run.  It's not a one time thing..

But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. 

It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

 

[jbenedet]

There's also a light rain drizzle/rot end with this look because how warm the atmosphere is by Sat afternoon. No cold hook-up to the west, north or the upper levels.

[CoastalWx]

Better hope the big boy models at least hold.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

There's also a light rain drizzle/rot end with this look because how warm the atmosphere is by Sat afternoon. No cold hook-up to the west, north or the upper levels.

Euro and GFS both CAA Saturday morning with snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nam is almost 5 to 10 mb weaker with antecedent and in situ high pressure, N of Maine comparing the consensus. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better hope the big boy models at least hold.

Have you warned the wife and kids to keep their distance until Friday?

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The NAM would have been quite a bit worse if not for the night time onset. That aspect looks key across multiple pieces of guidance.

 

It's effin' warm.

 

NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow.  A lot of that red area supports snow

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That NAM run personified

it is one run of the NAM while literally all of the others have trended better for SNE.  Tranquilla!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have you warned the wife and kids to keep their distance until Friday?

They made need to get out of dodge Friday night.

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better hope the big boy models at least hold.

Hold onto those big boys!

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and GFS both CAA Saturday morning with snow.

Yea, Sat morning. Looks like white rain/drizzle imby by 15z. East winds are ripping on the euro, though even with that look. It's tenuous for many. And again the timing is like ideal, if it shifts either way it's worse. 

I'm a seller of the GFS depiction (for now).

[dryslot]

Hold them close, Actually give them a hug before you give them a black eye.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

it is one run of the NAM while literally all of the others have trended better for SNE.  Tranquilla!

Not worried yet. I have a lot less room for error though, so I need the globals to tick S again at 12z

[JoeSnowBOS]

NAM is out of range.  Focus should be GFS and EURO at this point.   GFS has been best with this system in terms of being the most consistent.  EURO all over the place but starting to slowly tic toward the GFS with each run.  12Z on both of these will be telling - do things nudge back north or hold or tic south further?  We will see!!

[CoastalWx]

Reggie is further north and warmer with the low as well.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie is further north and warmer with the low as well.

Almost no change though...it was like a 10 mile shift....nothing like the NAM. Hopefully NAM is off its rocker.

[NorEastermass128]

I step away for 5 minutes and there’s the rug pool. Come on GFS , be right. 

[HinghamBoss]

GFS having its morning run that the EURO had last Thursday before yesterday's storm?

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow.  A lot of that red area supports snow

We're after accumulating snow. that's one point. Not necessarily profiles that support snow.

The other is - HP/LP it's all relative. Will the cold win? Well it's surrounded by relatively warmer air. Cold is on the run - relatively warm air is overtaking it. You also don't get that classic CCB, which really makes for the big events. That's the point of these depictions, in laymen's terms. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost no change though...it was like a 10 mile shift....nothing like the NAM. Hopefully NAM is off its rocker.

I wasn't a fan verbatim, but yeah hopefully NAM is too aggressive.

[Kitz Craver]

Stick with the varsity squad, mesos way out of useful range. 12z will be revealing…

[jbenedet]

I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something?

Euro/EPS looks more like rgem.

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run.  It's not a one time thing..

But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. 

It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

 

This has definitely been the case... nobody wants to win... and we all lose

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

First model run with good sampling of the ULL.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I see the GFS vs most other guidance. Maybe I'm missing something?

Euro/EPS looks more like rgem.

Eps members look more like the gfs

I'm not getting anything down here but the confluence to the north should be enough for interior NY and SNE. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Icon actually ticked colder.

[CoastalWx]

We ICON.

[CoastalWx]

Lets go Deutschland.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We ICON.

Actually looked a lot like the GFS that run.