Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if they see 0 today they probably see something with the storm in 5 days...I think at this stage even staying top 5 will be tough to pull off, even 4 inches between both storms nearly takes them out of that

if the March 1992 analog works out we'll get a couple more around the middle of the month and right around the equinox

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's good to get all the extremes in.  I used to use White Plains to gage Northern Bronx and Northern Nassau County weather and that's probably not that accurate.

Bronx Zoo is really good, now we just need something for Staten Island lol

 

Yeah, White Plains isn't very good for the Bx or even for some of urban southern Westchester either. HPN isn't actually in the city of White Plains but a wooded area straddling the CT border. The low temps can be a bit colder than downtown White Plains.

An offical site at the Zoo would be nice, or NYBG. Bx Zoo does have a PWS (maybe 2). They use it for the zip line/treetop adventure area they have now, and weather conditions are important for operations. From what I've seen it seems pretty accurate. It's very similar to LGA, which is 4 -5 miles due south anyway. Slightly cooler at night sometimes but not significantly so, which makes sense. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Borrowed from our NE Friends (technically my forum) 

10 to 1 so shave a bit.

image.png.ec0c7f5e4ea46a435a945246f10cb108.png

The Euro might be too cold in a situation like this with strong WAA. Hopefully I’m wrong. It’s pretty likely at this juncture that at least NYC, LI and maybe close to I-80 get scalped for a while. Hopefully it doesn’t shave too much off but the NAM would probably be mostly sleet on the north shore and sleet to rain on the south shore. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Damn so HRRR dried out a bit. 3-4” for the island. In this winter we take and run. Expecting 2-3” of slop out here. 
 

If it totally covers the grass I’d call that something of a win. When we see these warm layers start showing up in a SWFE they 95% of the time happen. And at least sleet lasts longer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro might be too cold in a situation like this with strong WAA. Hopefully I’m wrong. It’s pretty likely at this juncture that at least NYC, LI and maybe close to I-80 get scalped for a while. Hopefully it doesn’t shave too much off but the NAM would probably be mostly sleet on the north shore and sleet to rain on the south shore. 

I don't think any model does not have a thump of snow before the changeover. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 We need this hrrr to show it this evening.  Hrrr range is too early.  
I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam.  The nam usually does well in this set up.  Need it the nam to come to the south.  Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes.  
 

 

9FC5154C-6F7F-43AE-9A12-CA9A7FB3AF67.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

 We need this hrrr to show it this evening.  Hrrr range is too early.  
I been talking behind the scenes about how I don’t lie the look of Sref and nam.  The nam usually does well in this set up.  Need it the nam to come to the south.  Since the Sref got worse for snow lovers I would expect to see the nam to be the same or worse in the next few minutes.  
 

 

9FC5154C-6F7F-43AE-9A12-CA9A7FB3AF67.png

Nam looking better which to me is a great great sign for nyc and li ppl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS look much warmer

This isn’t “much warmer” and it’s the best look we’ve had all season outside of December’s -NAO -AO +PNA regime (which was still a fail) It’s cold enough and workable for snow.

There is a very major difference here versus what we’ve been dealing with. Notice the southeast ridge is non existent? Can thank the feature out in the pacific for that. It causes just enough of a reaction in the SW that the SER ends up getting squashed entirely, allowing the boundary to finally settle further south. This should be the best window of the season with an active STJ, suppressed SER, an eroding Niña, and a legit -NAO.


.27dde64243de581becad24a9cd353061.jpg

Feature X is what I’m referring to. Causes Y, which then squashes the SER (Z) IF this look pans out, we could get that long awaited KU
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow NAM much much better for the entire island. Doubles amounts. Concensus now in the 3-4” amounts for most of the island. 

Has more of a front end burst which helps a good amount. It still warms up the mid levels overnight and flips us to sleet. But after a few inches falls already.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...