mannynyc Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 There will likely be a significant difference in what falls in Co-Op City and Coney Island. This is one of those events where it really depends on where banding sets up. Super hard for models to accurately pinpoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Temps busting really low today. 34* currently. My forecast high is 49*. Something to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I'm assuming that at the 4pm update, NWS will throw up Winter Storm Watches for NW New Jersey unless something changes that they pick up on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: I'm assuming that at the 4pm update, NWS will throw up Winter Storm Watches for NW New Jersey unless something changes that they pick up on? It's possible but I'm thinking advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's possible but I'm thinking advisories I think a inch of slop for us currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Winter storm watches in Orange County. Hopefully that becomes a warning with the 4 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: I think a inch of slop for us currently Yeah we won't see advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah we won't see advisories I think everyone but probably NYC east is under one, that may be due to fact nothing much has happened this year somewhat. But I think you may see Bronx and all NJ counties from Hudson west issued a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think everyone but probably NYC east is under one, that may be due to fact nothing much has happened this year somewhat. But I think you may see Bronx and all NJ counties from Hudson west issued a WWA an inch of snow is fine, no need to get greedy, as long as it doesn't change to rain until the very end, I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Will be a big south shore/north shore difference with this one. Could see Long Beach with 1” and Port Jeff with 4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Winter storm watches in Orange County. Hopefully that becomes a warning with the 4 pm update. What town are you in in Orange county? I had to drive down the mountain into Pine Island early this morning to get kerosene. Can't get it around here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, psv88 said: Will be a big south shore/north shore difference with this one. Could see Long Beach with 1” and Port Jeff with 4” It reminds me of a few of the other storms like this-- December 2005 (though I think that was more east-west) and March 1992 (which may be an analog for this storm.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: an inch of snow is fine, no need to get greedy, as long as it doesn't change to rain until the very end, I'm happy That’s how bad things are lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It reminds me of a few of the other storms like this-- December 2005 (though I think that was more east-west) and March 1992 (which may be an analog for this storm.) The CIPS analogs showed 1/6/89 and 2/21/05 as analogs but both of those setups were better for us than this is. You did not have as strong a primary and air mass in place was better. For somewhere like BDL its possible they are closer to those sort of events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CIPS analogs showed 1/6/89 and 2/21/05 as analogs but both of those setups were better for us than this is. You did not have as strong a primary and air mass in place was better. For somewhere like BDL its possible they are closer to those sort of events Can you research the two storms in March 1992 and find out the totals for both Central Park and JFK, I'm trying to remember if they were the ones I'm remembering, 6.2" at Central Park for the first one, first 6"+ snowstorm in years, but less at JFK, day time storm. Second storm was predicted to be 5-8 too, because it was colder, night time storm, but it was drier and we ended up with 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Dusting-1 for south shore of NYC 2-4 for north shore of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Can you research the two storms in March 1992 and find out the totals for both Central Park and JFK, I'm trying to remember if they were the ones I'm remembering, 6.2" at Central Park for the first one, first 6"+ snowstorm in years, but less at JFK, day time storm. Second storm was predicted to be 5-8 too, because it was colder, night time storm, but it was drier and we ended up with 3-5. The one around st Patricks day came in at night and lasted thru the next morning. The one a few days later started late afternoon and was done by midnight (USAir crash at lga) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I am still currently sitting at 32 degrees with complete overcast… supposed to have a high of 46 that ain’t happening unless the sun comes out like now. Not sure if that will effect tomorrow but I guess we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro looks good Looks good 10 to 1 but I do not have the Kutchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The one around st Patricks day came in at night and lasted thru the next morning. The one a few days later started late afternoon and was done by midnight (USAir crash at lga) Thanks the first one was the one with marginal conditions where Central Park got 6 inches and JFK got like 3 and the second one was the colder one that was supposed to give us 5-8 but ended earlier than expected and we only got like 3-5 and closer to 3 not 5. Was that second one after the equinox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, allgame830 said: I am still currently sitting at 32 degrees with complete overcast… supposed to have a high of 46 that ain’t happening unless the sun comes out like now. Not sure if that will effect tomorrow but I guess we’ll see. This is one of our bigger busts and it's weird to see a bust on the colder side. When was the last time we busted by 10 or more degrees on the colder side IN WINTER? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro colder this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro colder this run Good sign...hopefully it gets colder for the end of week storm too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks the first one was the one with marginal conditions where Central Park got 6 inches and JFK got like 3 and the second one was the colder one that was supposed to give us 5-8 but ended earlier than expected and we only got like 3-5 and closer to 3 not 5. Was that second one after the equinox? The 22nd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Wow, EURO 3/4" line all the way down in Monmouth/Mercer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Good sign that the Euro isn’t ticking back north yet. If it’s this wrong this close in it has a major problem. We’re seeing especially in the meso models a significant south/north shore difference and I agree with it. The onshore winds are never good right along the coast and we have a marginal setup as is. This isn’t an especially cold airmass it’s coming into. If I had to guess I’d say an inch or so in Staten Island, southern NYC, LI and along I-78. Along I-80 and northern half of NYC and LI probably 2-4” and once you’re in the Hudson Valley and CT more like 4-7”. Usual caveat too about whether the snow comes in like a wall or it starts shredding up. If like a wall it’ll accumulate everywhere quickly and also hold the warm air aloft back somewhat. If it comes in shredded it obviously won’t accumulate as fast or at all if the coast is battling 35-36 degree surface temps and also the warm air aloft will have an easier time advancing in the precip breaks so when it does come down heavier again it might be sleet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks good 10 to 1 but I do not have the Kutchera Taking ratios into account, I would shave an inch to inch and a half off the Euro totals. That would still be a solid 3 to 3 and a half inches for NYC and my area. I would gladly sign up for that. I just hope that the NAM isn't right. As others have pointed out, it can sometimes do a good job with sneaky warm layers even though it's a terrible model overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said: What town are you in in Orange county? I had to drive down the mountain into Pine Island early this morning to get kerosene. Can't get it around here anymore. Highland mills. It’s right in between Central Valley and Cornwall. Most of the town 500 to 800 feet ASL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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