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March 2023


Rjay
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22 hours ago, psv88 said:

Drugs?

:lol:

On 3/19/2023 at 6:22 PM, Maxwell03 said:

I've been noticing a trend in southern NJ going back to January with a few pieces to it: 1) there is a persistent haze that rests over the horizon on sunny days, (2) light pollution turns the night sky a nautical almost twilight-esque blue color during clear conditions regardless of moon phase, and (3) the sky blackens like a summer thunderstorm on pretty much every afternoon that it rains. Is this the work of a temperature inversion? Dust in the atmosphere? Something else? 

I was wondering if anyone on the NY forum had noticed these phenomena. I've brought it to the attention of other folks with a mixed response, and I'd like to nail down the culprit. 

Was probably the particulates from the wildfires filtering the sunlight you were seeing.

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10 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

Read thru the last couple of pages... It felt like a bunch of students departing for summer vacation and heading in different directions. 

Better luck next winter. 

Or maybe the winter after next, unless we get an unprecedented series of volcanos real soon?

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Much of this week will feature readings in the 50s and even 60s. Overall, it now appears likely that March will wind up warmer than normal.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -3.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.736 today.

On March 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.510 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.593 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1° (1.3° above normal normal).

 

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Did the final tally today, ended up with exactly 15 inches on the season.  Believe it or not, that's not far off from the last few years IMBY, with 20-21 being the obvious exception because of that crazy February stretch.  19-20 was worse off, and only saw 13 inches, none of which fell in February or March.  Last year had slightly more at 21 inches, but it should be noted that January was a lot colder and therefore we had a lasting snowpack. @rgwp96 @ForestHillWx

Looking forward to a gradual transition to spring now with the increasing average temps and longer days.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 62°

Philadelphia: 61°

The mild weather will continue through Friday. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 52.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 53.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 55.1°

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The next 8 days are averaging   50degs.(44/57) or +3.5.

Month to date is    42.1[+1.0].       Should be    44.4[+1.7] by the 29th.

Reached 50 here yesterday at 6:30pm.

Today:  57-60, wind w., few clouds late, 44 tomorrow AM.

38*(55%RH) here at 7am.      40* at 8am.      42* at 9am.      44* at 10am.      49* at Noon.      50* at 12:30pm.      54* at 2pm.      down to 50* at 3pm.       Up to 56* at 4pm.    Reached 60* at 5pm.      59* at 6pm.

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7 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Did the final tally today, ended up with exactly 15 inches on the season.  Believe it or not, that's not far off from the last few years IMBY, with 20-21 being the obvious exception because of that crazy February stretch.  19-20 was worse off, and only saw 13 inches, none of which fell in February or March.  Last year had slightly more at 21 inches, but it should be noted that January was a lot colder and therefore we had a lasting snowpack. @rgwp96 @ForestHillWx

Looking forward to a gradual transition to spring now with the increasing average temps and longer days.

14.8 this year for me and 14.1 in 19/20. 50.5 in 20/21 . The big winner was 2o18 with 72.5

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9 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Did the final tally today, ended up with exactly 15 inches on the season.  Believe it or not, that's not far off from the last few years IMBY, with 20-21 being the obvious exception because of that crazy February stretch.  19-20 was worse off, and only saw 13 inches, none of which fell in February or March.  Last year had slightly more at 21 inches, but it should be noted that January was a lot colder and therefore we had a lasting snowpack. @rgwp96 @ForestHillWx

Looking forward to a gradual transition to spring now with the increasing average temps and longer days.

Your numbers are similar to mine. Candidly I didn’t measure the nuisance snows.
 

All I know is that I shoveled once. The others, I let nature take care of.
 

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even interior areas struggled to get much below freezing for average temperatures this winter.


01242B7B-F853-4561-AF27-6C2ED2CE706A.thumb.png.202b081936a9e5e2284a8cee56434529.png

wow we basically had a March average winter.

do you have the average for MPO, Chris?  Thanks!

also, has JFK averaged 40.0 or higher? I think they did in 2015-16, which was a lot snowier than this winter.  Was that their mildest winter?

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 76 (1938)
NYC: 84 (1921)
LGA; 70 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 16 (1986)
NYC: 10 (1885)
LGA: 18 (1986)

Historical:

1801: The Jefferson Flood hit the Connecticut Valley. The flooding was the greatest since 1692. The Federalists named the flood for the new President, who they blamed for the disaster

1932 - A tornado swarm occurred in the Deep South. Between late afternoon and early the next morning severe thunderstorms spawned 31 tornadoes in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. The tornadoes killed 334 persons and injured 1784 others. Northern Alabama was hardest hit. Tornadoes in Alabama killed 286 persons and caused five million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1952 - Severe thunderstorms spawned thirty-one tornadoes across Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky. The tornadoes killed 343 persons and caused 15 million dollars damage. Arkansas and Tennessee each reported thirteen tornadoes. The towns of Judsonia AR and Henderson TN were nearly wiped off the map in what proved to be the worst tornado outbreak of record for Arkansas. A tornado, one and a half miles wide at times, left a church the only undamaged building at Judsonia. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm in the Northern High Plains Region produced blizzard conditions in western South Dakota. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Rapid City SD, and snowfall totals ranged up to 20 inches at Lead SD. The high winds produced snow drifts six feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitterly cold weather prevailed across the northeastern U.S. Portland ME reported their coldest spring day of record with a morning low of 5 above, and an afternoon high of just 21 degrees. Marquette MI reported a record low of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1989 - Snow blanketed the northeastern U.S. early in the day, with six inches reported at Rutland VT. Morning and afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds from southwestern Mississippi to southwest Georgia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The first full day of spring was a cold one for the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures damaged 62 percent of the peach crop in upstate South Carolina, and 72 percent of the peach crop in the ridge area of South Carolina. Elkins WV, which a week earlier reported a record high of 82 degrees, was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 16 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:


Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 76 (1938)
NYC: 84 (1921)
LGA; 70 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 16 (1986)
NYC: 10 (1885)
LGA: 18 (1986)

Historical:

1801: The Jefferson Flood hit the Connecticut Valley. The flooding was the greatest since 1692. The Federalists named the flood for the new President, who they blamed for the disaster

1932 - A tornado swarm occurred in the Deep South. Between late afternoon and early the next morning severe thunderstorms spawned 31 tornadoes in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. The tornadoes killed 334 persons and injured 1784 others. Northern Alabama was hardest hit. Tornadoes in Alabama killed 286 persons and caused five million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1952 - Severe thunderstorms spawned thirty-one tornadoes across Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky. The tornadoes killed 343 persons and caused 15 million dollars damage. Arkansas and Tennessee each reported thirteen tornadoes. The towns of Judsonia AR and Henderson TN were nearly wiped off the map in what proved to be the worst tornado outbreak of record for Arkansas. A tornado, one and a half miles wide at times, left a church the only undamaged building at Judsonia. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm in the Northern High Plains Region produced blizzard conditions in western South Dakota. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Rapid City SD, and snowfall totals ranged up to 20 inches at Lead SD. The high winds produced snow drifts six feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitterly cold weather prevailed across the northeastern U.S. Portland ME reported their coldest spring day of record with a morning low of 5 above, and an afternoon high of just 21 degrees. Marquette MI reported a record low of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (The Weather Channel)

1989 - Snow blanketed the northeastern U.S. early in the day, with six inches reported at Rutland VT. Morning and afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds from southwestern Mississippi to southwest Georgia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The first full day of spring was a cold one for the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures damaged 62 percent of the peach crop in upstate South Carolina, and 72 percent of the peach crop in the ridge area of South Carolina. Elkins WV, which a week earlier reported a record high of 82 degrees, was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 16 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 completed the flip today from scorching heat to freezing cold

 

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Atlantic City (.1 warmer than Central Park), Wilmington Delaware and Philly now have average winter temperatures colder than Central Park and LaGuardia. UHI

The airport where the official temperatures are taken in Philly is south of the main built up UHI area in Philly. So It doesn’t  capture the warmest parts of the city like NYC and LGA during winter. The Franklin Institute closer to downtown is warmer.

Average temperatures 

PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 39.8
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 42.0
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 41.2

Average Minimum more UHI Franklin Institute

Data for December 1, 2022 through February 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 35.0
DE LEWES COOP 34.8
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 33.8
NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 33.7
DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 33.4
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 33.2
NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 33.0
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 33.0
DE DOVER COOP 32.8
NJ MARGATE COOP 32.8
NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 32.7
DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 32.0
NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 31.1
DE WILMINGTON NEW CASTLE CO AP WBAN 30.9
NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30.9
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 30.9
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The airport where the official temperatures are taken in Philly is south of the main built up UHI area in Philly. So It doesn’t  capture the warmest parts of the city like NYC and LGA during winter. The Franklin Institute closer to downtown is warmer.

Average temperatures 

PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 39.8
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 42.0
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 41.2

Average Minimum more UHI Franklin Institute

Data for December 1, 2022 through February 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 35.0
DE LEWES COOP 34.8
MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 33.8
NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 33.7
DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 33.4
PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 33.2
NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 33.0
MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 33.0
DE DOVER COOP 32.8
NJ MARGATE COOP 32.8
NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 32.7
DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 32.0
NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 31.1
DE WILMINGTON NEW CASTLE CO AP WBAN 30.9
NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30.9
PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 30.9

Yes I have been by the airport numerous times, it is away from center city Philly. There is no place in the U.S. that has so much concrete and urbanization as NYC, even our local airports like LaGuardia and Newark are in heavily urbanized areas. Only Kennedy is the exception of those three.

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12 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes I have been by the airport numerous times, it is away from center city Philly. There is no place in the U.S. that has so much concrete and urbanization as NYC, even our local airports like LaGuardia and Newark are in heavily urbanized areas. Only Kennedy is the exception of those three.

There is some new World Trade Center site that just showed up that is warmer than both NYC and LGA. But it looks like some type of equipment error since the difference looks too big. Not even sure where they would find a spot for the sensors. Maybe Don knows.

 

Data for December 1, 2022 through March 21, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 44.1
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41.4
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 41.2
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 40.7
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 39.9
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 39.8
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 39.7
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 39.6
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 39.5
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 39.3
NJ HARRISON COOP 39.2
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 39.2
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 39.0
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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow we basically had a March average winter.

do you have the average for MPO, Chris?  Thanks!

also, has JFK averaged 40.0 or higher? I think they did in 2015-16, which was a lot snowier than this winter.  Was that their mildest winter?

 

3rd warmest for MPO an 5th warmest at JFK.

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 31.5 0
2 2001-2002 31.4 0
3 2022-2023 31.1 0
- 2011-2012 31.1 1
4 1997-1998 30.4 10
5 1931-1932 30.2 0
6 1932-1933 29.4 22
7 2016-2017 29.2 0
8 1949-1950 29.1 0
9 1991-1992 29.0 38
10 1953-1954 28.9 12

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 40.8 0
2 2001-2002 40.5 0
3 2011-2012 40.0 0
4 2016-2017 39.5 0
5 2022-2023 39.4 0
6 1997-1998 39.1 0
7 2019-2020 38.7 0
8 1990-1991 38.5 0
9 1982-1983 38.4 0
10 1974-1975 37.9 0
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

3rd warmest for MPO an 5th warmest at JFK.

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 31.5 0
2 2001-2002 31.4 0
3 2022-2023 31.1 0
- 2011-2012 31.1 1
4 1997-1998 30.4 10
5 1931-1932 30.2 0
6 1932-1933 29.4 22
7 2016-2017 29.2 0
8 1949-1950 29.1 0
9 1991-1992 29.0 38
10 1953-1954 28.9 12

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 40.8 0
2 2001-2002 40.5 0
3 2011-2012 40.0 0
4 2016-2017 39.5 0
5 2022-2023 39.4 0
6 1997-1998 39.1 0
7 2019-2020 38.7 0
8 1990-1991 38.5 0
9 1982-1983 38.4 0
10 1974-1975 37.9 0

wow thats amazing the top 5-6-7 list is very similar

 

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3 hours ago, lee59 said:

Yes I have been by the airport numerous times, it is away from center city Philly. There is no place in the U.S. that has so much concrete and urbanization as NYC, even our local airports like LaGuardia and Newark are in heavily urbanized areas. Only Kennedy is the exception of those three.

The UHI lows around NYC were similar to the ocean influence at MTP.

 

Data for December 1, 2022 through February 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Min Temperature 
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 37.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 34.9
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34.8
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 34.5
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33.4
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 32.9
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 32.9
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32.6
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 32.1
NJ HARRISON COOP 31.3
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 31.3
NY CENTERPORT COOP 30.9
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 30.9
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 30.7
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 30.6
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 30.4
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 30.4
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 30.0
NY SYOSSET COOP 30.0
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 29.5
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 29.5
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 29.1
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 28.9
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 28.2
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 27.6
NY WEST POINT COOP 27.4
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 27.3
CT GUILFORD COOP 26.9
CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 26.7
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 26.6
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 26.6
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 26.2
NY SHRUB OAK COOP 25.0
NY CARMEL 4N COOP 24.9
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 23.8
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 23.3
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Tomorrow will be another mild day, even as clouds increase. Much of this week will feature readings in the 50s and even 60s. Overall, it now appears likely that March will wind up warmer than normal.

The latest weekly guidance suggests that April could start on a cool, but not necessarily exceptionally cold note. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +3.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.582 today.

On March 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.311 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.512 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1° (1.3° above normal normal).

 

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3 hours ago, lee59 said:

The average at my house, certainly not anything official, was 38.83. My closest airport is Farmingdale, which was some 1 degree warmer. I think my night time temps were generally colder.

Assuming Dec-Jan-Feb? I was 39.5. Just a bit south of you. 

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