March 2023

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is not a coincidence. if you want to get nickel, dimed, and maybe get a quarter or two thrown in there, root for a +PNA/-EPO. but if you want to get the big dogs, you need a west-based -NAO. simple as that

We need a west based -NAO -AO and ridge near the Rockies at the same time for higher 12”+ events in NYC. Overpowering +PNAs can work without a -NAO but eastern sections are favored for jackpots like in January 2015 and 2022 Nemo in February 2013 is probably the most unusual set up with a trough in the West. But eastern sections did best and not NYC. I think the more -PNA kept the phase further east. So it’s a combination of factors and the -PNAs in recent years coincided with the -NAOs to diminish our snowfall potential. Strong - NAOs before 2018-2019 more frequently coincided with +PNAs. 
 

Composite of 9 events producing 12”+ in NYC since 2003. West based block near Hudson Bay connecting to ridge in Rockies. Also notice the strong 50/50 low.

 

 

Unusual Nemo Western Trough but Hudson Bay block is present.

 

 

 

[MANDA]

Interesting shadow effect to the west of the Hudson Valley.

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Interesting shadow effect to the west of the Hudson Valley.

That’s probably from the lack of snow there. There definitely was a downslope screw area west of the Taconics/Berkshires. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That’s probably from the lack of snow there. There definitely was a downslope screw area west of the Taconics/Berkshires. 

Yeah, I posted a tweet on this area yesterday.

 

 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Boring times ahead

 

Winter is over

Of course.  Spring starts in a few days.  Gonna be 2 months of rain and dreary now.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Of course.  Spring starts in a few days.  Gonna be 2 months of rain and dreary now.

I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect. 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Doesn’t really mean much for snow here if the Pacific remains hostile. Starting to see more of these underperforming -NAOs in recent years. The record warm WPAC and NW Atlantic are just too overpowering.

 

 

You definitely want the Pacific on your side, you can get a blockbuster winter with a great Pacific and a bad Atlantic, but not vice versa-- the best example of this is 1993-94 !

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect. 

I mean that snow in May was historic so I dont mind it, and it got warm a few days after that

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We need a west based -NAO -AO and ridge near the Rockies at the same time for higher 12”+ events in NYC. Overpowering +PNAs can work without a -NAO but eastern sections are favored for jackpots like in January 2015 and 2021. Nemo in February 2013 is probably the most unusual set up with a trough in the West. But eastern sections did best and not NYC. I think the more -PNA kept the phase further east. So it’s a combination of factors and the -PNAs in recent years coincided with the -NAOs to diminish our snowfall potential. Strong - NAOs before 2018-2019 more frequently coincided with +PNAs. 
 

Composite of 9 events producing 12”+ in NYC since 2003. West based block near Hudson Bay connecting to ridge in Rockies. Also notice the strong 50/50 low.

 

 

Unusual Nemo Western Trough but Hudson Bay block is present.

 

 

 

Jan 2022 also, foot amounts came as close to the city as Brooklyn.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The thing that helped 15-16 was the fact that even though it was a super El Niño, it wasn’t severely east-based like 97-98. The 97-98 Nino actually had a secondary area of forcing in ENSO 1+2 where the SSTs were on fire and it displaced the Aleutian low way east over AK (++EPO). The EPO floodgates were wide open and there was nothing but Pacific maritime air and no cold/arctic to be had in Canada or the CONUS. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-AO but the PAC side was so horrific it completely overwhelmed and it didn’t matter

15-16 was more like 82-83 in that respect

 

[winterwx21]

Beautiful afternoon. 59 degrees here right now. Hopefully we'll have plenty of days like this over the next few weeks. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I posted a tweet on this area yesterday.

 

 

Yes, your post is what made me take a look at the visible.  I was amazed at how clearly the down slope snow shadow showed up.  Interesting little ribbon of snow on the higher peaks inside the outline I drew.

[psv88]

A beautiful 58 degrees

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You definitely want the Pacific on your side, you can get a blockbuster winter with a great Pacific and a bad Atlantic, but not vice versa-- the best example of this is 1993-94 !

 

But you need an extremely cold pattern like we got in 93-94 to make a -PNA gradient pattern work. All the gradients since 15-16 have been too warm for us. So interior New England and Upstate NY did better. Too much SE Ridge has been spoiling our gradients. That’s one of the benefits of cold winters which have been lacking since 15-16. We have more leeway for snow with cold and NYC had potential for near or over 50” on the season. The snowfall gradient was just south of NYC instead of north.

 

Time Series Summary for Avoca Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	90.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	53.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	75.2	0

 

NJ

PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO

COOP

31.0

 

NJ

EWING 3 WNW

COOP

39.2

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	23.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	7.8	0

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Under sparkling sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 50s today. A few spots reached 60°. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s in much of the region through Saturday. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend, but no strong cold shots are likely.

Model support has increased for a sustained turn toward milder weather next week. Some uncertainty still exists, but the overall probability that March could finish near or somewhat warmer than normal has increased in recent days.

No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the next week. New York City is currently on a path that could end with its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 16, New York City has a high probability of finishing with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 88% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 16 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The highest seasonal amount in such cases occurred in 1991-1992 when 12.6" of snow was measured. By March 19th, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -12.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.066 today.

On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.528 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.956 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.1° above normal normal).

 

[winterwx21]

High temp of 61 here today. 

[HailMan06]

5 hours ago, MANDA said:

Interesting shadow effect to the west of the Hudson Valley.

Can confirm. I drove up the Thruway to get to Middletown (Orange County) and noticed that driving.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Hit 54 today, snow melting quickly. 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under sparkling sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 50s today. A few spots reached 60°. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s in much of the region through Saturday. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend, but no strong cold shots are likely.

Model support has increased for a sustained turn toward milder weather next week. Some uncertainty still exists, but the overall probability that March could finish near or somewhat warmer than normal has increased in recent days.

No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the next week. New York City is currently on a path that could end with its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record.

Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th.

With just 2.3" snowfall through March 16, New York City has a high probability of finishing with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 88% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 16 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The highest seasonal amount in such cases occurred in 1991-1992 when 12.6" of snow was measured. By March 19th, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -12.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.066 today.

On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.528 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.956 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.1° above normal normal).

 

Thanks, Don as always for your daily analysis and stats.  Amazing to see that March looks to finish above normal after what at the start of the month looked to be like a chillier below normal month.  My guess is that it will finish even above the .1 degree you referenced.  Just so hard to get a month to finish solidly below normal these days.  And by solidly I'm talking 3 degrees or more.  We certainly have no trouble finishing 3 degrees above normal.  Interesting times.  There were the usual suspects (not meaning anyone on these forums) that were calling for a markedly cold March and hyping it to the max.  I never brought into that extreme, but I was thinking March could finish 1-2 degrees below as the month began.  Even with all the notable blocking cold air could not take hold.  Hence the lack of snow for most of this forum.  Glad this horror of a winter is all but done.

[SnoSki14]

JBs March forecast is quickly going to crap as always. It's insane people still take him seriously. He's the Jim Cramer of meteorology 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Thanks, Don as always for your daily analysis and stats.  Amazing to see that March looks to finish above normal after what at the start of the month looked to be like a chillier below normal month.  My guess is that it will finish even above the .1 degree you referenced.  Just so hard to get a month to finish solidly below normal these days.  And by solidly I'm talking 3 degrees or more.  We certainly have no trouble finishing 3 degrees above normal.  Interesting times.  There were the usual suspects (not meaning anyone on these forums) that were calling for a markedly cold March and hyping it to the max.  I never brought into that extreme, but I was thinking March could finish 1-2 degrees below as the month began.  Even with all the notable blocking cold air could not take hold.  Hence the lack of snow for most of this forum.  Glad this horror of a winter is all but done.

Like you, I believed we'd have a somewhat cooler than normal March. The start looked mild, but the second half had been modeled to be around 2°-4° below normal. That's not going to happen. Unless something unexpected happens, we probably won't have much, if any, additional snowfall. Hopefully, next winter will be snowier.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Like you, I believed we'd have a somewhat cooler than normal March. The start looked mild, but the second half had been modeled to be around 2°-4° below normal. That's not going to happen. Unless something unexpected happens, we probably won't have much, if any, additional snowfall. Hopefully, next winter will be snowier.

Really can’t be any worse next winter. 

[JerseyWx]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect. 

Same, I guess we'll see if the delayed spring trend continues.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

JBs March forecast is quickly going to crap as always. It's insane people still take him seriously. He's the Jim Cramer of meteorology 

Didn’t know many did.

[CIK62]

Could they be crossing the border this weekend on sleds?

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hope we can avoid the back door front parade this year. The utter fail Winter 19-20 featured snow on Cinco de Mayo. If we can get stretches of days in the mid 60s and sunny-perfect. 

Actually it was Nueve de Mayo lol.

I'm with you on the mid 60s and sunny, but those seem to be fewer and further between the last 20 years.  And those of us on the south shore of LI suffer the longest.

Worst of both worlds.  In March we get cold rain while our neighbors to the north and west get fluffy snow.  In April we get cold mist while our neighbors to the south and west (and even the north shore of the island) get sunny and blue skies.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

But you need an extremely cold pattern like we got in 93-94 to make a -PNA gradient pattern work. All the gradients since 15-16 have been too warm for us. So interior New England and Upstate NY did better. Too much SE Ridge has been spoiling our gradients. That’s one of the benefits of cold winters which have been lacking since 15-16. We have more leeway for snow with cold and NYC had potential for near or over 50” on the season. The snowfall gradient was just south of NYC instead of north.

 

Time Series Summary for Avoca Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	90.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	53.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	75.2	0

 

NJ

PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO

COOP

31.0

 

NJ

EWING 3 WNW

COOP

39.2

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	23.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1994-04-30	7.8	0

 

 

Even JFK got over 46 inches of snow that winter, so we can't even say it was an inland winter, that winter was full of historic cold and big snowfalls too and a historic ice storm to top it all off.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Actually it was Nueve de Mayo lol.

I'm with you on the mid 60s and sunny, but those seem to be fewer and further between the last 20 years.  And those of us on the south shore of LI suffer the longest.

Worst of both worlds.  In March we get cold rain while our neighbors to the north and west get fluffy snow.  In April we get cold mist while our neighbors to the south and west (and even the north shore of the island) get sunny and blue skies.

 

 

 

Yes it was on the anniversary of the May 1977 snowstorm

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Thanks, Don as always for your daily analysis and stats.  Amazing to see that March looks to finish above normal after what at the start of the month looked to be like a chillier below normal month.  My guess is that it will finish even above the .1 degree you referenced.  Just so hard to get a month to finish solidly below normal these days.  And by solidly I'm talking 3 degrees or more.  We certainly have no trouble finishing 3 degrees above normal.  Interesting times.  There were the usual suspects (not meaning anyone on these forums) that were calling for a markedly cold March and hyping it to the max.  I never brought into that extreme, but I was thinking March could finish 1-2 degrees below as the month began.  Even with all the notable blocking cold air could not take hold.  Hence the lack of snow for most of this forum.  Glad this horror of a winter is all but done.

The most interesting thing is that the three months of JFM will all have an average temp within a degree or two of each other, I wonder if that's ever happened before.

[Roger Smith]

March has been the coldest month of three winters, or perhaps more precisely stated, colder than all three winter months, in 1879-80, 1889-90 and 1959-60. 

To answer your question about a similar range of winter month temps and March, 2016-2017 had means of 38.3 in Dec, 38.0 in Jan, 41.6 in Feb and 39.2 in March. That is the narrowest range I could find in the data set in recent winters (for all four months) and it was second all-time; the all-time narrowest range was in 1871-72 (29.2, 28.8, 29.9, 30.5).  However, 1868-69 might have been narrower, we don't have December 1868 but at other locations in eastern North America it was relatively cold, and the means for Jan to Mar were 35.1, 34.5, and 34.8.