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Rjay
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The next 8 days are averaging     42degs.(35/50) or -2.5.

Month to date is    41.4[+1.0].          Should be       41.6[-0.3] by the 23rd.

Reached 35 daytime yesterday.   Got down to 33 at 8pm.

Today:      44-46, wind nw.-breezy, clearing skies, 32 tomorrow AM.

Here is the 24hr. chance for at least 1" on the "threat".  Cough, Cough, Cough

1679583600-OQ6ZDu7UAQA.png

34*(64%RH) here at 7am.     37* at 11am.       39* at Noon.      40* at 1pm.       41* at 2pm.       44* at 3pm.      Reached 47* at 5pm.        44* at 7pm.

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NYC is not a good representation of our area. If you live in the city itself then obviously it is good for you. The UHI affect is so strong. There nighttime temperatures are sometimes 10 degrees warmer than my area and I am not one of the colder places in our area. 

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I often find the greatest discrepancies in low temperatures are in the autumn and spring… usually 12° to 15°, sometimes 20° between CPK and my home (MMU), all likely due to the insane UHI.


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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If you just go by single digit snowfalls, I think it's just low and middling, you really dont see any big snowfall years after single digit snowfall winters.  Average is probably the best we can hope for --unless-- we get a moderate el nino and in that case we can always root for 2002-03 lol

5 winters that followed <10” winters had 30” or more snow. Two had 40” or more (1919-20 and 2002-03).

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43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. 1918-19 was a strong El Niño. 1919-20 saw a weak El Niño.

wow interesting, I don't believe we've had many back to back el ninos (the only other ones I know about are 1976-77 and 1977-78)

what were the totals in 1918-19 and 1919-20 if you don't mind me asking, Don?

 

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4 hours ago, lee59 said:

NYC is not a good representation of our area. If you live in the city itself then obviously it is good for you. The UHI affect is so strong. There nighttime temperatures are sometimes 10 degrees warmer than my area and I am not one of the colder places in our area. 

But the low temperature departures and rankings are similar. We can see this when comparing local stations. The UHI affects the actual temperature difference. We know it’s more pronounced on nights with light winds. Below is the winter average low temperatures. When averaged out for all the lows this past winter, the UHI effect was about 4°-5°. 

Winter DJF

 Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2001-2002 35.2 0
2 2022-2023 34.9 0
3 2015-2016 34.7 0
4 2011-2012 34.1 0
- 1997-1998 34.1 0
5 1931-1932 33.6 0
6 2016-2017 33.5 0
7 2019-2020 33.3 0
8 1998-1999 32.3 0
9 1982-1983 32.2 0
10 1990-1991 32.1 0
- 1952-1953 32.1 0
- 1948-1949 32.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 31.1 0
2 1997-1998 30.9 0
3 2022-2023 30.7 0
4 2001-2002 30.2 0
5 2019-2020 30.1 0
6 2011-2012 29.8 0
7 2016-2017 29.3 0
8 1994-1995 28.9 0
- 1982-1983 28.9 0
9 2012-2013 28.2 0
10 1998-1999 27.9 0
- 1996-1997 27.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 29.9 20
2 2022-2023 29.4 0
3 2015-2016 29.3 0
4 2001-2002 29.2 0
5 2011-2012 29.1 1
6 2016-2017 29.0 1
7 2019-2020 28.3 2
8 1952-1953 27.7 0
9 1998-1999 27.5 23
10 1996-1997 27.3 24

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 27.2 0
2 1931-1932 25.7 2
3 1936-1937 25.3 2
4 2022-2023 25.2 0
5 2011-2012 25.0 1
6 2019-2020 24.5 0
7 1997-1998 24.4 1
8 2001-2002 23.9 0
9 2016-2017 23.8 0
- 1940-1941 23.8 0
10 1952-1953 23.4 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1931-1932 31.3 0
2 2022-2023 29.6 0
3 1997-1998 29.5 0
4 2015-2016 29.3 0
5 2019-2020 29.1 0
6 1936-1937 29.0 0
7 2016-2017 28.8 0
8 2001-2002 28.7 0
9 1974-1975 28.3 0
10 1952-1953 28.2 0
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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 79 (1990)
NYC: 77 (1990)
LGA: 74 (1990)

Lows:

EWR: 14 (1993)
NYC: 14 (1993)
LGA: 14 (1993)

 

Historical:

1938: A tornado hit McPaul, Iowa, while moving from southeast to northwest. Another tornado raced through Batesville, Illinois, at 60 to 65 mph. Another tornado causing F4 damage killed 10 and injured 12 in St. Clair County, Missouri. This tornado was part of an outbreak that produced four different tornadoes and was responsible for 11 deaths and 42 injuries.

 

1941 - The most severe blizzard in modern history struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The blizzard hit on a Saturday night while many are traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Duluth MN, and reached 85 mph at Grand Forks ND. Snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. A cold front traveling 30 mph crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in central Nevada, with 23 inches reported at Austin. High winds raked the desert areas of southern California and southern Arizona. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Douglas AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - More than one hundred hours of continuous snow finally came to an end at Marquette MI, during which time the city was buried under 43 inches of snow. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with forty-one cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Alabama to the Middle Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 at Virginia Beach VA. Low pressure in southeastern Ontario produced high winds in the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Saint Albins VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Low pressure crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley produced high winds from the Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Winds gusted to 73 mph at Iowa City IA, and wind gusts reached 79 mph at Waukesha WI. Winds of 75 mph were reported around Rapid City SD, with gusts to 100 mph. Up to a foot of snow was reported in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and extreme eastern North Dakota. Blizzard conditions were reported in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2004: Brownsville, Texas, breaks a century-old record for the most significant daily rainfall accumulation for March with 3.23 inches.

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two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual

also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

compday.OOmUpxHLGz.gif.761818f9d6f2df784b37071b57a2af00.gifcompday.PkYUHYuXC8.gif.4bea40aef1453ba0540f44556517d401.gif

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it...

Doesn’t really mean much for snow here if the Pacific remains hostile. Starting to see more of these underperforming -NAOs in recent years. The record warm WPAC and NW Atlantic are just too overpowering.

 

 

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