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March 2023


Rjay
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Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average.  Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not.  Still worthy of keeping the door open for a while. These two CPC graphics issued 2/24 serve as  basis for interest. 

Screen Shot 2023-02-24 at 7.20.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-24 at 7.22.59 PM.png

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We've basically had 3 months of March

 

I see what he is saying though.

00 through 2012 it almost never snowed in March while it snowed in December a lot.

Conversely, 2013 through now March has been snowier than December.

Side note - the former had wayyy warmer springs while the latter has had wayyy warmer Falls.

 

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I see what he is saying though.

00 through 2012 it almost never snowed in March while it snowed in December a lot.

Conversely, 2013 through now March has been snowier than December.

Side note - the former had wayyy warmer springs while the latter has had wayyy warmer Falls.

 

This is a lot like the 50s, usually when you have bad winters, March is the snowiest month.  Simply because it didn't snow much in the other months and March has the confluence of both warm and cold nearby and loads of moisture laden spring systems.  Plus add in the fact that a lot of our bad winters have a -PNA and that has much less of an effect in March.

 

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Still on track for our cold/potentially snowy period starting approx 3.10

1. There will be a big warm up around the 5th where the SE Ridge links with the NAO.

2. The RNA rises and the AO falls for approx the 10th. 

The ensembles are in agreement. Big question on the duration.

Warmup 

image.thumb.png.77e593dd3fdd13ebaff264064f37ae6b.png

Window

image.thumb.png.f1d9100a3ad11597c432a04a6906d9d5.png

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36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still on track for our cold/potentially snowy period starting approx 3.10

1. There will be a big warm up around the 5th where the SE Ridge links with the NAO.

2. The RNA rises and the AO falls for approx the 10th. 

The ensembles are in agreement. Big question on the duration.

Warmup 

image.thumb.png.77e593dd3fdd13ebaff264064f37ae6b.png

Window

image.thumb.png.f1d9100a3ad11597c432a04a6906d9d5.png

How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month?

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month?

 

The EPS is warmer with the warmup and colder with the target period. 

The warmup with be 2 to 5 days while the Target period is 7 plus days.

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How high will this warmup peak at? So it's a 5 day warmup between the 5-10 and then colder again for the rest of the month?

 

I should add this is highly dependent on the RNA. If it stays be below -1sd then the target period can end up a bust. RNA driving the bus (a factor of the Aleutian ridge due to la Nina).

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