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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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46 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not sure about over here but back in wnc our average high is 62 and low is 38. We ran some 20 to 30 degrees below average for several days. 

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps.  TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN.  We had one day which was ~18F BN.  I welcome the warmth of the next few days.  I need to get some garden/yard work done.  It is time for spring!   Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up.  Modeling has been stellar.  The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.  

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I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it.  I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds.  I still have some dormant areas in the yard.  Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold.  My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave.  Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already).  I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready.  Still looking at a very late planting for it.  

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54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps.  TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN.  We had one day which was ~18F BN.  I welcome the warmth of the next few days.  I need to get some garden/yard work done.  It is time for spring!   Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up.  Modeling has been stellar.  The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.  

Yeah this weather coming up looks to be typical spring weather for us. I bet we still see some late frosts but heck that's about common anymore. 

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The GEFS and EPS are showing some signs of trough amplification around the 11th of April.  NO - I am not talking a snowstorm.  Certainly snow showers in the mountains are not unusual for that date.  At this point for those following weather with us during the "snow off season," (which is most of the year)we actually talk about weather totally unrelated to wintry stuff.  For me, I watch the weather at this time of year in order to spot freezes/frosts in advance.  I wasn't paying attention earlier this week, and had frost on some summer plants (new grape vines) which I was hardening off.  Grape vines will survive the winter here, but those new leaves (on transplants) don't like frost.  So far, so good.  The leaves appeared to have survived.  FWIW, I still have plants in our landscape which are shedding leaves after the December cold.  

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The 0z Euro and CMC both are showing a cut-off low over the TN valley next week.  It might be feedback, but that is cold, nasty weather right there.  The GFS does not have it.  It has had the hot hand lately...so let's see where it goes.  Again, this is NOT a winter wx post.  The default for all posts until next October is rain(for those new to the site).  I will state otherwise if snow is in the outlook for the valleys.   That is the last caveat re: winter wx.

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